"Iron ore is soaring", steel supply pressure is not too great, and manufacturers are willing to pay a high price.

"Iron ore is soaring", steel supply pressure is not too great, and manufacturers are willing to pay a high price.

On July 12, there was continuous heavy rainfall in many places in southern Japan, which had a great impact on the production and engineering construction of regional steel mills, and the short-term market was in a state of stalemate between supply and demand; Restricted by relevant factors, dealers have no intention of chasing up and down, and there is little room for market price fluctuation.

At present, China's steel spot market is in the off-season of traditional sales, and the demand is difficult to pick up; On the supply side, under the influence of environmental protection, limited production and stability, the pace of capacity release of steel mills has slowed down, the supply pressure is not too great, and manufacturers are more willing to hold prices-in the short term, the pattern of weak balance between supply and demand has not been broken.

In addition, although the skyrocketing trend of iron ore has been contained, it is difficult to make a sharp correction in the short term, and coke and scrap steel also show a rebound trend, which means that the cost support has not weakened. Based on this, our evaluation of the market next week (July 15-19) is neutral-blue warning. Specifically, the Xiben Iron and Steel Index will run in the range of 4 180-4250 yuan next week.

Nishimoto steel index

This week, the price of Shencheng building materials fluctuated and consolidated. As of July 12, the Xiben index reported 4220, down 10 from last weekend. In the same period, the representative specifications of high-quality grade III rebar in Shanghai were reported at 3980 yuan/ton, up from last weekend 10 yuan; The representative price of high-quality snails in Shanghai is 4240 yuan/ton, which is roughly the same as last weekend.

Shanghai rebar price

According to the feedback from market research, this week (July 8-12), the market price of construction steel in Shencheng area fluctuated little. At the beginning of the week, due to the downward adjustment of Tangshan billet, the spot was slightly loose. Then, driven by snail fluctuations, low-level resources moved up one after another, and the spot price was mainly consolidation in the next few days. Demand performance is not good. This week, Shencheng ushered in continuous rainy weather, downstream demand fell into a trough, and the overall transaction performance was weak.

However, with the official launch of a new round of environmental supervision, the supply side has certain restrictions, the release of steel mill capacity has slowed down, and the market arrival pressure has eased. At present, the market is in a pattern of both supply and demand, and the wait-and-see mood of merchants is getting stronger. Considering the strong willingness of leading steel mills in East China to bid, the short-term price is still flexible under the support of cost, so Shencheng Building Materials will be mainly arranged by shock next week.

National market

According to the transaction data monitored by Nishimoto Shinkansen, the price of building materials and steel in some parts of the country fluctuated and fell this week, with different ranges. At the beginning of the week, prices in many places went down slightly, and in the second week, snails rose strongly, driving the market to be bullish, and building materials prices rebounded everywhere. In the second half of the week, domestic building materials were basically weak. Specifically, look at the performance of various places:

Beijing market: This week, the spot price in Beijing market first fell and then rose, with a slight fluctuation, and the overall price dropped by 20-30 yuan/ton compared with last weekend. At present, the price of HPB300Ф 8-10 mm high-speed wire rod in Hebei Iron and Steel is 4780-4800 yuan/ton; HRB400e Ф12-Ф14mm small thread 4070-4 140 yuan/ton, HRB400e Ф16mm thread 4060 yuan/ton, HRB400e Ф18-20. HRB400Ф 8-10mm snail offer 4300-4320 yuan/ton.

Since the beginning of this week, due to poor demand, Tangshan Steel Plant has limited production, and the mentality of the Beijing market is not good. Some middlemen are eager to arbitrage, and their quotations have been greatly reduced by 50-60 yuan/ton. Then snails and Tangshan billets rebounded, the market sentiment gradually stabilized, and the terminal actively took the goods; The middlemen entered the market again to lock the goods, and the market price quickly rebounded by 30-50 yuan/ton, and then fluctuated and consolidated. Considering that the current terminal demand has entered the off-season, Tangshan Steel Plant's limited production is less than expected, but the steel price cost support is strong. It is expected that the Beijing market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate next week.

Hangzhou market: this week, Hangzhou steel market is dominated by narrow fluctuations. At present, the mainstream price of Shagang 16-25mm rebar in Hangzhou market is 4050 yuan/ton, and the resources with the same specifications as Yonggang, Zhongtian, Xinxing and Shente are 4020-4050 yuan/ton. The price of screws of Yonggang, Zhongtian and Pinggang is 4260 yuan/ton; The price of qualified thread is about 3920-40 10 yuan/ton, and the price of wire rod and coil screw is about 4 190 yuan/ton.

July 8-12 There were too many rainy days in Hangzhou this week, which made outdoor construction difficult, the overall market turnover was on the high side, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The main contract of snail futures fluctuates around 4000 points, the price policy of surrounding steel mills is relatively firm, the voice of environmental protection and limited production in the north is high, and most merchants are reluctant to sell.

On Thursday, Shagang announced the mid-July price policy, keeping the coil price unchanged and not making up the previous price difference, which made some agents' fantasy of making up the price difference of 30-40 yuan/ton fall through, and the market price was sideways. It is expected that the Hangzhou market will still fluctuate within a narrow range next week.

Guangzhou market: The price of building materials in Guangzhou market is consolidating within a narrow range this week. At present, the mainstream price of rebar Ф18-25mm HRB400e in Shaogang is 4 190 yuan/ton, while the price of HRB400e Ф140-46544 in Guangzhou Steel, Cold Steel, Yufeng Steel and Xiangtan Steel is 418-25mm. The mainstream price of HPB300Ф 6-10 mm high-speed wire rod in Shaogang is 4330-4380 yuan/ton; The price of high-speed wire rod of the same specification in Guangzhou Iron and Steel Group, Zhuhai Iron and Steel Group and Xiangtan Iron and Steel Group is 4220-4300 yuan/ton. The price of Ф 8 ф8- 10 mmhrb 400 snail in Xiangtan iron and steel co., ltd. is 4400-44 10 yuan/ton.

According to market feedback, this week, due to the wide fluctuation of futures snails and the fluctuation of external market prices, local market prices fluctuated as a whole. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of Guangzhou sample warehouse this week was about 6.5438+0.0744 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.5 million tons compared with the previous period and an increase of 274.5 million tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, the inventory of rebar was 662,200 tons, a decrease of 6.5438+0.9 million tons compared with the previous week; The coil stock is 4 1.22 million tons, an increase of1.40 million tons compared with the previous week.

According to the interview, this week, due to the slowdown of downstream procurement, the outbound speed weakened, the decline of thread inventory narrowed, and the coil inventory kept growing. On the whole, the local market is still in a weak supply and demand situation, the weather affects demand, and the price increase lacks support. It is expected that the Guangzhou market price will weaken next week.

Steel mills adjusted their prices this week.

July 8-12, the ex-factory price of domestic building materials has not changed much this week, among which the leading steel mills in East China are basically the same as the previous price, and the agents are still upside down when the arrival cost is included. At present, steel mills have a strong willingness to bid, which has certain support for the spot in the short term. However, in mid-July, the off-season effect is still the same, and the market demand is difficult to amplify. In order to speed up the withdrawal of funds, some manufacturers adopt flexible pricing for shipments.

raw material

This week, domestic raw material prices rose and fell, billet and iron concentrate rose slightly, coke prices continued to fall, and scrap prices remained basically stable. By variety:

Billet market: Domestic billet prices fluctuated upward this week. Recently, Hebei Province has carried out centralized rectification of air pollution. Conditional steel enterprises in Tangshan, Handan, Shijiazhuang, Xingtai and other municipal districts strive to complete the ultra-low emission transformation before the end of September. Some billet production and billet rolling enterprises stopped production and maintenance, and the supply and demand of billet were relatively tight.

From the price point of view, from Monday to Tuesday this week, black commodity futures collectively fluctuated higher, market confidence increased, and billet quotations rose slightly. In the second half of the week, the billet quotation showed a tentative rise and fall, with a limited range. At present, billet inventory continues to decline, and dealers mainly wait and see. It is expected that the domestic billet market will fluctuate within a narrow range next week.

Coke market: coke prices continued to fall this week, but the decline narrowed. Recently, environmental inspections in Shanxi have been frequent, and the start-up of coke enterprises has dropped slightly compared with last week. Follow-up environmental protection expectations are still strong, and no specific policies have been introduced; Traders' enthusiasm for receiving goods has increased compared with the previous period. Recently, the shipment of coke enterprises is good, and the overall inventory has declined slightly. Coke inventory in steel mills is at a medium and high level. With the recovery of steel profits, the willingness of steel mills to suppress raw materials has weakened, and a few coke enterprises are also interested in raising prices. It is expected that the domestic coke market will fluctuate and rebound next week.

Scrap market: Scrap prices are sideways this week. After the domestic scrap steel market rose sharply in the early stage, the market tends to be dominated by high consolidation, and the purchase prices of steel enterprises in various places have risen and fallen according to their own inventory.

Among them, due to the limited production in North China, the consumption of scrap steel in steel enterprises has increased, and the price of scrap steel has mainly increased, with an increase of 20-50 yuan/ton; East China remained stable after the rise, and the arrival of mainstream steel enterprises improved. Central China and Northwest China are affected by the sharp correction of steel prices, and the price of scrap steel is under great pressure, and the purchase price of steel enterprises is slightly adjusted back by 20-40 yuan/ton.

At present, domestic steel prices are unstable, and scrap traders are cautious, basically fast-forward and fast-out. Considering that the supply of scrap steel is still tight, but the price of scrap steel is at a high level during the year and the profits of steel enterprises are limited, it is expected that the domestic scrap steel market will be dominated by high shocks next week.

Iron ore market: the prices of major domestic mining areas rose slightly this week. At present, the price of imported minerals is on the high side, some steel mills replenish their stocks as needed, most miners have a good mentality, and the market quotation has risen slightly. This week, the market price of imported minerals rose first and then fell.

Specifically, in the first half of the week, due to the limited production in Tangshan, the disk of ore futures rose and the spot price also rose; In the second half of the week, due to the correction of the futures market, some miners were cautious, and the spot quotation stopped rising and fell back. On the whole, the shipment of imported minerals increased, the decline of port inventory slowed down, and there were more rainy days in the south. It is expected that the imported mineral market will fluctuate weakly next week.

Shipping market: In July 1 1 day, the Baltic Dry Freight Index (BDI) closed at 18 16, up by 1 16 compared with the same period last week, with an increase of 6.8%. On July 5th, the comprehensive freight index of China coastal area (bulk cargo) released by Shanghai Shipping Exchange closed at 98 1.3 1, down 4.6% compared with June 28th.

In July 1 1, the freight index of coal products released by Shanghai Shipping Exchange closed at 549.9 points; The freight rate of Qinhuangdao-Shanghai (40,000-50,000 dwt) route is 18.7 yuan/ton, which is 0.3 yuan/ton higher than that in July. The freight rate of Qinhuangdao-Guangzhou (60,000-70,000 dwt) route is 26. 1 yuan/ton, up from July 10/yuan/ton. On July 9, the freight index of coastal metal ore closed at 643.94 points, down 10.97 from the previous period. It is expected that the BDI index will fluctuate at a high level next week.

Supply and demand analysis

According to the data tracked by Xiben Shinkansen trading platform, due to the continuous rainy weather, the transaction volume of Shencheng building materials this week is not large. Specifically, at the beginning of the week, due to the downward shock of snails and billets, the business mentality was weak and the market trading atmosphere was very light; Snails rebounded on Tuesday, business mentality improved, and some low-level resources transactions rebounded, but the total amount was still small; In the second half of the week, it rained continuously in Shencheng, with heavy rainfall in some areas, the downstream construction was blocked, and the transaction fell into a trough. Generally speaking, the off-season effect is obvious, and short-term demand is difficult to amplify. If the weather clears up next week, terminal demand may pick up.

Judging from the inventory situation, Shanghai rebar inventory this week was 324,500 tons, a decrease of 0.64 million tons compared with the previous week; From the national inventory statistics, rebar inventory in major cities in China increased by 36,500 tons on a week-on-week basis, and wire inventory increased by 65,700 tons on a week-on-week basis; The rebar inventory of major steel mills in China increased by 98,000 tons on a week-on-week basis, and the wire inventory increased by 52,700 tons on a week-on-week basis.

According to monitoring, this week, China's steel social inventory and steel mill inventory both rose, which shows that under the influence of low demand, the inventory pressure is increasing day by day. However, it is worth noting that the output of domestic steel mills has dropped in a high probability this week, which indicates that the effect of limiting production and maintaining stability is gradually emerging; In mid-July, the number of domestic steel mills has increased, and the supply pressure may be reduced to some extent in the later period. The market is expected to shift from strong supply and weak demand to weak supply and demand.

Comprehensive viewpoint

July 8-12 this week, many places in the south ushered in continuous heavy rainfall, which had a great impact on the steel production and engineering construction of regional steel mills, and the short-term market was in a state of stalemate between supply and demand; Restricted by relevant factors, steel traders have no intention of chasing up and down, and there is little room for market price fluctuation.

At present, the national steel spot market is in the off-season of traditional sales, and the demand is difficult to pick up; On the supply side, under the influence of environmental protection, limited production and stability, the pace of capacity release in steel mills has slowed down, the pressure on steel supply is not too great, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to "protect prices"-in the short term, the pattern of weak balance between supply and demand has not been broken.

In addition, although the skyrocketing trend of iron ore has been contained, it is difficult to make a sharp correction in the short term, and coke and scrap steel also show a rebound trend, which means that the cost support has not weakened. Based on this, our evaluation of the market next week is neutral-blue warning. Specifically, next week (July 15-19), Xiben Iron and Steel Index will run in the range of 4 180-4250 yuan.