Why is it said that earthquakes cannot be predicted by toads crossing the street?

Figure 1 Toad crossing the street (picture from the Internet)

After every major earthquake, some people will recall that there were abnormal animals similar to toad crossing the street before the earthquake. But I can tell you why earthquakes are so difficult to predict based on animal anomalies.

Figure 2 Causes of animal abnormalities

First of all, we should know that abnormal animal reactions are only a result, so is it only earthquake abnormalities that cause this result? Obviously we can know that there are many reasons for animal abnormalities, such as meteorological factors - whenever the weather changes, animals will also predict in advance due to instinct, so they will have some abnormal reactions, such as swallows flying low before it rains, etc.! Similarly, the arrival of animals' menstrual cycles will also cause them to have abnormal reactions. If a cat goes into estrus in spring, its behavior will also appear abnormal at this time. Of course, animals may also have abnormal reactions before an earthquake. But since this is only one of the reasons, we cannot use animal abnormalities to deduce the inevitable occurrence of earthquakes.

Figure 3 The Earth’s magnetic field (picture from the Internet)

Secondly, some readers may ask, why do earthquakes cause abnormalities in animals? The most reasonable explanation at present is that before the earthquake, due to the rupture of the earth's lithosphere, a large amount of electromagnetic energy was released from the interior of the earth. Animals can sense abnormal changes in electromagnetic energy due to their instincts, so they will behave abnormally to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, such as Toad crosses the street.

Figure 4 Monitoring of the Earth’s electromagnetic field (picture from the Internet)

Therefore, instead of trying to predict earthquakes by monitoring animal abnormalities, it is better to strengthen the monitoring of the Earth’s electromagnetic field and always pay attention to its abnormalities. changes to seize the precursors of earthquakes.