Accurately predict global warming 50 years ago! Nobel Prize winner in physics: I'd rather not win the prize.

On October 5th, 20021year/kloc-0, 65438, half of the Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded to Syukuro Manabe, a Japanese-American scientist, and Klaus Hasselmann, a German scientist, in recognition of their modeling of the complex earth's climate system, their quantification of climate change and their reliable and accurate prediction of climate change.

The other half was awarded to the Italian scientist Giorgio parisi, who discovered the interaction between disorder and fluctuation in the physical system from atoms to planets.

Many people said that they didn't expect this prize to be awarded to "complex physical systems". In fact, the first half of this prize can be said to be awarded to "global warming". At present, global warming is at the forefront, and Shu Lang Shingo accurately predicted global warming more than 50 years ago. He is the first person to prove that carbon dioxide will affect the climate according to the laws of physics. Let's focus on climate change and the Nobel Prize.

Fourier

Global warming was first discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1820. The air is transparent, and Fourier thinks that sunlight can directly penetrate the air and reach the ground. However, when these substances are absorbed by the ground, they will release "dark hot substances", that is, invisible substances with heat. These substances will be absorbed by transparent air, causing the air to heat up.

Therefore, he suggested that if a celestial body is the same size as the distance from the sun, it will be colder than the earth, because the air of the earth has the same heat preservation effect as a "blanket".

Arenius

Later, science made progress in "spectral" analysis. 1896, svante arrhenius explained that the "dark hot matter" described by Fourier is actually the heat (infrared short-wave radiation) released again after the solar radiation (long wave) is absorbed by sand, rocks, oceans and other substances on the earth's surface.

Air is not very cold to short-wave radiation, but the absorption rate of carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor and other gases in it is very high. Based on this, he realized that when these gases increase, the blanket on the earth will become thicker. Arrhenius also calculated the early "blanket effect", which is the early "climate model" of mankind.

Zhenguo Shu Lang

However, the climate system includes atmosphere, hydrosphere, land surface, cryosphere and so on. This is extremely complicated. In addition, the biosphere to which human activities belong has become the main force guiding climate change. 100 years ago, it was estimated that no one would think that human beings could rewrite the climate one day, so the road ahead was boundless and unpredictable.

In addition to human factors, each circle is also extremely complicated. For example, the ocean temperature determines the amount of water vapor, and the amount of water vapor determines the amount of cloud droplets. Even today, it is still difficult for scientists to make an accurate judgment on this.

For example, as the sea water heats up and the water vapor increases, there will be more clouds, so it is necessary to increase the efficiency of blocking and reflecting sunlight, thus slowing down global warming. But the fact is that the earth is getting darker and darker, and the earth absorbs more energy from solar radiation, which further accelerates global warming.

To exaggerate, it is the "butterfly effect", and even a tiny variable may be the fuse of climate change.

For such a complex and chaotic system, Shuro Makoto published "Atmospheric Heat Balance under a Given Relative Humidity Distribution" in 1967. Based on radiation transmission and cumulus convection, the cocoon of the climate system is peeled off, the main core of climate change is grasped, and the important factors affecting climate are linked, and the model is established and quantified. It is pointed out that if the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere doubles, the global average temperature will rise by 2 degrees.

Nowadays, the concentration of carbon dioxide has increased by about 50%, and the global average temperature has increased by about 1 degree, which is enough to verify the accuracy of the model. Scientists are still trying to determine the uncertainty of climate, and the quantitative model established by Shu Lang Xinwu 50 years ago is still valid in the general direction. In addition, the climate model of that year indirectly contributed to the establishment of IPCC.

Klaus Hasselman

In 1970s, Klaus Hasselman further constructed a model combining weather and climate, which showed that no matter how unpredictable the weather was, it could not shake the general trend of the climate system. He also found a way to distinguish between human activities and natural phenomena in the climate system, and proved that global warming is caused by human activities.

To sum up, the 20021Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded to "Complex Physical System", half of which was awarded to the precise research on complex climate system in 1960s and 1970s. They have long expressed an accurate view that global warming is going to happen, and the initiator is human beings. After winning the prize, Hasselman said in an interview that he would rather not win the prize than global warming. # Nobel Prize in Physics #