How is the typhoon path calculated?

The calculation method and monitoring means of typhoon path include:

1, ground observation station

Ground observation stations are the most common observation data. At present, meteorological observation stations all over the province are automatic weather stations, which can realize automatic observation, automatic transmission and automatic decoding within five minutes.

The data returned by the weather station will be automatically generated by computer processing, and new data will be transmitted every 10 minute. The radar data of the whole province is updated every 6 minutes.

2. Sounding station

Sounding stations mainly rely on putting sounding balloons to monitor the atmospheric characteristics of each layer of the atmosphere. Although the sounding balloon looks a bit like an ordinary balloon, its connotation is very rich.

The sounding balloon will carry some equipment to observe the temperature, air pressure and wind speed at different heights during liftoff. These observation data are finally collected and distributed by the communication system, and the weatherman predicts the weather by analyzing these data.

3. Numerical weather forecast model products

In addition, forecasters will also apply numerical weather forecast model products. According to the atmospheric conditions at that time, it is a method to calculate various atmospheric equations by computer and predict the atmospheric motion state and weather phenomena in a certain period in the future. This is also one of the means of weather forecast and typhoon forecast.

In the process of typhoon forecasting, forecasters will also use the accumulated experience and methods for many years to consult relevant departments for many times. The Provincial Meteorological Observatory will consult with the Central Meteorological Observatory, the sister meteorological observatory and the local meteorological observatory, and reach a unified conclusion before releasing it to the public.

Prediction has "three difficulties"

A difficult task

The path is very complicated. Typhoon is a big guy, sometimes it is not dominated by various forces, and occasionally it shakes randomly from side to side, and its moving path may be 100 km away.

Ernan

Even if the path is predicted accurately, such as "eight-dimensional" prediction, and the track is locked early, there is great uncertainty in the intensity change.

Three difficulties

The path and intensity have been controlled, and the asymmetric structure after landing has also brought difficulties to the forecast. Wind and rain are often not in the center of typhoon, and it is difficult to judge where the wind and rain appear.

The above contents refer to Heilongjiang Daily-How is the typhoon predicted?