How does the meteorological department make the weather forecast? Why is the weather forecast sometimes inaccurate?

How does the meteorological department make the weather forecast? Why is the weather forecast sometimes inaccurate? According to the latest statistics of the Emergency Management Department, the flood disaster in southern China caused 6 provinces 1.6 million people to be affected, 78 people were missing, 729,000 people were relocated, more than 8,000 people's rooms and houses collapsed, 97,000 people were injured, and the direct economic loss was 25.7 billion. Why can't the rainstorm be predicted in advance? There are not many casualties, which is impossible at present. At present, the accuracy does not exceed 100%, not to mention the flood disaster. What is the weather forecast? Why the weather forecast?

What does the weather forecast say? What do you need? The weather forecast we can see is only a few minutes, but there are five links: weather observation, meteorological collection, meteorological processing, comprehensive analysis and product version. Meteorological observation is the basis of weather forecast. From the ground to the ocean, from the ground to the ocean, from the ground to the satellite, from the automatic weather station to the holiday balloon, meteorologists observe the atmospheric changes and movements at all levels through the global meteorological observation system.

World-standard meteorological stations are very important for weather forecasting. Regular and fixed-point weather forecast can provide rich, accurate and high-quality atmospheric observation. What does the weather forecast say? Why the weather forecast? What is the butterfly effect? Data collection Meteorological observation data are quickly passed and collected in major weather centers, and these data are processed by high-speed computers to get various charts reflecting the weather, which is convenient for the presenter to analyze. Weather chart is one of the important charts. Weather map is a special kind of map. The location of each city and observatory is filled in the weather map, as well as major rivers, lakes and other geographical symbols.

There are also meteorological elements of each observation station, which also reflect the main weather system of the corresponding geographical location. What are the distribution characteristics of weather phenomena and what is the relationship between them? There are many other charts, which are important tools for meteorologists to analyze and predict. What does the weather forecast say? Why the weather forecast? What is the butterfly effect? Data processing forecast forecast, forecaster forecast, pen, a piece of paper. Later, with the application of high-performance computers, numerical forecast products became the main reference for weather forecast. Numerical forecasting is a large-scale forecasting project, which is the product of combining meteorology with mathematics, physics and computer. The core is to use high-performance super-tracking quantity to numerically control some microcomputers to describe the atmosphere, and finally obtain the quantification of atmospheric motion.

Comprehensive analysis forecasters study various forecast charts and numerical forecast products, and combine the information of meteorological satellites and weather radars to make future weather forecasts. Because each forecaster's experience and accumulated knowledge are different, and the conclusions drawn in the reporting process are different, we should finally discuss the process of consulting brainstorming called weather. The main forecast indicator analyzes the forecast summary and forms the final forecast conclusion.