Current situation of wheat

Affected by macro-control and seasonal consumption off-season, flour demand continues to be weak, flour processing enterprises ship slowly, the processing profit rate is low, and some enterprises have difficulty in cash flow, so they sell at reduced prices for quick shipment. At present, most flour processing enterprises mainly use old wheat, only a few enterprises process new wheat, and most enterprises continue to buy as needed. Because the purchase cost of raw grain is still high, some flour processing enterprises mainly produce in limited quantities, and the flour output is relatively small. On the whole, the enthusiasm of purchasing wheat in flour industry is not high, and the purchase and sale of wheat is relatively light. In sharp contrast, since the second half of last year, driven by high corn prices and feed demand, feed wheat has become active in aquaculture, which has been welcomed by feed processing enterprises. The author believes that the opening of feed wheat demand will inject vitality into the current light wheat market and warm up the wheat market; There are many factors behind the market stability, which will save energy for the start of the wheat market in the future.

1, the consumption demand of aquaculture and the high price of corn drive the consumption of feed wheat.

At present, the number of fertile sows has increased for three consecutive months, and the price of pig food has exceeded 8: 1, which is much higher than the break-even point. This will directly stimulate the domestic demand for pig breeding, and with the official introduction of pig support policies, large-scale pig farms will definitely increase their efforts to fill the column. In the later period, the stock of live pigs, especially fertile sows, is expected to continue to accelerate, and the enthusiasm of farmers to fill the column will continue. In addition, the Mid-Autumn Festival market is approaching, and fattening work will also provide support for pig feed consumption in the later period, and pig feed consumption will show a steady growth trend. In addition, aquaculture has gradually entered the peak season, and feed consumption will continue to increase in the later period.

The National Grain and Oil Information Center predicts that the domestic corn output will reach 654.38+82 million tons in 20 1 12, which is 5 million tons and190,000 tons higher than that in 20 10 and 2009 respectively. At the same time, the consumption forecast has also been greatly improved. In 20 112 years, the consumption was 654.38+82 million tons, the feed consumption increased by 5 million tons compared with the previous year, the industrial consumption increased by110,000 tons, and the total consumption increased by 6 million tons compared with 20 10. At present, the price difference between corn and wheat continues to widen, and wheat has become the first choice for feed processing enterprises to replace corn as feed. A large number of wheat replacing corn as feed has not lowered the price of corn, and the price of Shandong in North China has continued to rise. By the end of July, the purchase price of corn in Shandong enterprises had risen sharply, reaching a maximum of 2,500 yuan/ton. The price of the third-grade corn port in Dalian Port is 23 10-2320 yuan/ton; The price of corn in Guangdong port continues to rise, and the mainstream transaction price of first-class northeast corn is 24 10-2420 yuan/ton; The high price of corn will further stimulate the consumption of wheat instead of corn.

Since April, the price advantage of wheat replacing corn has appeared, and the substitution amount has gradually increased; After May, according to the rough estimation of 30% wheat substitution, when the new season corn comes into the market, the wheat substitution for corn this year will be at least120,000 tons; With the increasing demand for feed in the later period, the demand for corn will be largely replaced by wheat, which will reduce the supply in the later wheat market and push up the price of wheat. At present, the price difference between wheat and corn fields has reached 1.50-200 yuan/ton, and even reached 300 yuan/ton in some areas.

2. The rumors of temporary storage acquisition may break the deadlock and improve the market situation of new wheat acquisition.

According to recent market rumors, the summer grain purchasing research group, which consists of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Agriculture, the State Grain Administration, the Agricultural Development Bank Head Office and the China Grain Storage Corporation, is currently planning to launch a new wheat purchasing policy to break the deadlock that it is difficult to start the wheat market purchase. The core content of the new policy may be to slightly increase the purchase price of wheat. The relevant management personnel of China Grain Reserve said that in the current situation that the purchase price of new wheat market is generally higher than the national unified purchase price, the relevant decision-making departments may start the purchase policy of temporary storage wheat in the near future, and carry out acquisitions in major wheat-producing provinces such as Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong, Henan and Hubei. This year's summer grain purchase failed to start due to the support of the market, and the acquisition subject was missing. The new wheat acquisition market encountered a cold current. By July 20th, all kinds of grain enterprises in Hebei, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Sichuan, Shaanxi, Xinjiang and other 10 wheat-producing provinces had purchased 28.579 million tons of new wheat. Last year, the minimum purchase price of15,20 10/0 wheat totaled 22.65 million tons. By the end of July, all kinds of grain enterprises in major producing provinces had accumulated 44.688 million tons of 20 10 wheat. This year, the new wheat acquisition market not only failed to start the stock market acquisition plan, but also the acquisition process was far behind the same period last year. In the later period, if the country starts the policy of temporary purchasing and storage of wheat, buyers will be more active in buying new wheat, and the deadlock caused by factors such as capital bottleneck and lack of buyers will gradually pick up, or it will push up the purchase price of wheat market.

3. The release of the acquisition cost of new wheat in the later period will directly raise the bottom of the wheat market price.

So far, this year's purchase of new wheat has not seen the scene of "snapping up" and "three prices a day" like last year, but the purchase price of new wheat this year is generally higher than last year. Taking Jiangsu as an example, the open scale price of red wheat this year is generally 0.03-0.05 yuan/kg higher than last year. At present, the purchase price is basically the same as last year, maintaining at 0.99- 1.0 1 yuan/kg. At present, the average acquisition cost of new wheat is higher than last year. At the same time, the cost of inland river freight and coastal transportation in Jiangsu is affected by waterway and shipping costs, which are higher than the same period of last year, and the circulation cost in the process of wheat acquisition increases. Among them, the freight of wheat from Taixing, Jingjiang, Zhangjiagang and Jiangyin to Anning Port is 25 yuan/ton; Jiangyan, Hai 'an, Rugao, Rudong and Dongtai wheat freight 35-40 yuan/ton; The freight of wheat in Hongze, Gaoyou, Dafeng, Yancheng and Xuyi is 50-55 yuan/ton, which is 8- 10 yuan/ton higher than the same period last year. The sea freight from Anning Port to Guangdong is1000t, 120 yuan/ton, 2,000t, 102- 105 yuan/ton, 3,000-5,000t and 86-88 yuan/ton respectively; The freight from Anning Port to Fujian is1000t and 83 yuan/ton, which is higher than the same period of last year 10- 15 yuan/ton. The recently released "20 1 1 Logistics Operation Analysis in the First Half of the Year" shows that China's logistics costs are on the rise. Yao Jingyuan, the former chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, believes that "there are two streams of social and economic activities, one is the currency stream, and the currency constantly flows from the buyer to the seller; Corresponding to the capital flow is logistics, that is, goods are transferred from producers to consumers. This process includes warehousing, transportation and distribution. Since the process of logistics occurs before the goods reach consumers, the cost of logistics will inevitably push up the price of goods. "

Up to now, the central bank has raised the reserve ratio six times and raised interest rates three times, which directly pushed up the occupation cost of grain storage enterprises. In addition, the increase in labor wages and storage costs will increase the acquisition cost of new wheat this year as a whole. After three months of maturity, a large number of new wheat will be listed in September, when its acquisition cost will be released, raising the bottom of the wheat market price.

4. The consumption of downstream flour is heating up, and the effective grain source for auction is reduced, which will push up the price of wheat in the later period.

At present, it is in the off-season of flour consumption, and the price of flour is stable and slightly lower, with little overall fluctuation. In the later period, with the gradual cooling of the weather, the opening of colleges and universities in early September and the holiday effect, flour consumption will tend to pick up, and the demand for wheat processing will change, welcoming the peak consumption season. On the other hand, at present, the weekly wheat auction in China is still the main channel for flour processing enterprises to obtain grain sources, but the recent domestic wheat auction continues to be sluggish. By the end of July, there were 28 national temporary storage wheat auctions in China this year, with a total investment of130,470,700 tons and a total turnover of1228,333 tons, with a total turnover rate of 9.4 1%. The overall turnover rate has gradually decreased, and it has recently hit a new low in a row.

On the one hand, the auction of temporary storage wheat continued to be sluggish. On the one hand, the auction grain sources are unbalanced, mainly concentrated in Henan, Anhui and Shandong, and the domestic wheat stocks are unevenly distributed; On the other hand, there is something wrong with the quality of the wheat auctioned. The wheat produced by 20 10 was affected by abnormal weather, and the overall quality was poor (the quality of some high-moisture grains changed). At the same time, up to now, the stock market acquisition has not started, which will reduce the number of effective grain sources obtained by post-processing enterprises through domestic wheat auction channels, increase their efforts to acquire market grain sources, and weaken the ability of the state to regulate market grain sources.

In view of the above analysis, the author believes that the steady and rising wheat market has quietly accumulated upward momentum, and the market outlook will usher in a wave of rising prices. But at the same time, this year's "price stability" is the primary goal of domestic macro-control, inflationary pressure is not reduced, the government is more sensitive to "price", and the domestic wheat market is still a "policy city". Therefore, it is necessary to pay close attention to the dynamics of domestic policy regulation, and treat the domestic wheat market rationally. We should neither look too high at the domestic wheat market, nor panic too much about policy regulation, nor be too pessimistic about the market outlook. In the future, the domestic wheat market will be in the atmosphere of "policy market" and "marketization" for a long time, and the market trend will fluctuate, but the overall upward trend will remain unchanged.