Typhoon Chanhong (14) has a typhoon eye. When did Typhoon Lotus (15) form?

From the Fengyun satellite image, the tropical disturbance in the northwest Pacific developed together, resulting in a "twin typhoon embryo" and a named typhoon, so it is really a typhoon embryo group. According to the next situation, it is expected that the tropical disturbance in the sea area will continue to brew, so a new typhoon may come again.

First, let's look at the twin typhoon embryos. The first one is 9 1W, which can't be a typhoon embryo. Now it has entered Vietnam and is expected to continue to move westward, so it is ready to approach the Bay of Bengal. Even if a storm forms in the future, it will be a cyclone. Therefore, although 9 1W has developed in China's waters, it is impossible to become a typhoon. The second typhoon embryo is 92W.

This is a new typhoon embryo, which is now developing in the Philippines. The temporary wind speed is 15KT. However, according to supercomputer simulation, it is expected to develop into typhoon Lotus 15 this year. GFS is expected to brew a pressure value of 997hpa on June 65438+1October 65438+1October 0 1 day, which is expected to develop in the South China Sea, and then the volatility will increase, and it may be close to Guangdong or Hainan Island in China. Therefore, if this typhoon embryo forms a typhoon, it will affect South China. However, from the simulation of GFS, the strength is not very great, so it is lucky. The European Numerical Center also supports the development of this typhoon embryo, which is expected to reach 999hpa on June 10.

Therefore, judging from this situation, there is a high probability that today's typhoon embryo is typhoon Lotus No.1 15 this year, which is expected to affect South China. It is expected that everyone will go westward, but the path of EC is a little more complicated, a little farther from Guangdong or Hainan Island, and the impact is less. So how, depends on the later development, and there is still room for change.

On the whole, it is predicted that typhoon Lotus No.1 15 will form as early as June 10, which will affect South China with a high probability. This is the 92W situation that may temporarily develop after the formation of the "twin typhoon embryo". If there are changes in the later period, let's take a look. On the whole, there are still quite a few typhoons, with 5438+00 in June. Judging from the development of existing tropical disturbances, there are still many typhoons.

Then this year 14 Typhoon "Chanhong". Now "Chanhong" has an obvious typhoon eye, which is also its enhanced standard. It is estimated that it will continue to strengthen after 12, and the strongest can reach typhoon level or strong typhoon level (13- 14, 38-42 meters). Therefore, this is a typhoon that has a great impact on Japan, almost all the way north along the island of Japan, so there are still many areas that affect Japan. Of course, although the typhoon has not approached Japan recently, the stormy weather has obviously appeared, and a large-scale storm has completely covered most parts of Japan, which is obviously a "water typhoon".

Therefore, in addition, Japan's climate is changeable, and humid weather will develop obviously in Japan. Those who have not returned to Japan should pay more attention to the weather changes, and this typhoon should not be underestimated. This is the development of the marine area now, so we should pay attention to the typhoon pattern in June of 5438+00, and the typhoon development is more and more obvious, which also shows that the typhoon active period in 2020 is not over yet. According to the data of the Climate Center, it is estimated that there may be 4-5 typhoons in the northwest Pacific and South China Sea in June of 5438+00, which is more than the same period of the year (3.7). Among them, 1 ~ 2 landed or significantly affected the south China coast, which was more than normal (0.5) and the terminal station was later than normal (1.6).

Therefore, if typhoon Lotus No.92w 15 forms this year, it will also be the second typhoon in June of 5438+00, and the impact on South China in June of 5438+00 will also be 1, which is a general situation. On the whole, there are not too many typhoons this year, and the total number of typhoons is only 14. If it is in previous years, it will be at least around the 20th, so this year's climate is really special. There is no typhoon in July, which is very rare. Because the climate is extremely changeable in 2020, many people have really verified this problem. Now the La Nina phenomenon has appeared, which shows that.