Should stock trading consider seasonality?

In agricultural society, human behavior is greatly influenced by climate, so when Japanese meet and say hello, they always talk about the weather, which is influenced by agricultural society in the past.

After entering the industrial society, the goal of human efforts is to get rid of the influence of climate, such as the adaptation of air conditioning and heating. Another example is greenhouse farming, and so is it.

The stock market is the product of industrial society. After all, agriculture and fisheries have little direct influence on the stock market, so the development of the stock market obviously has a trend of getting rid of the influence of local conditions and climate.

But in fact, it is impossible for human beings to get rid of the influence of climate. Before winter comes, ants will keep storing food for the winter, while crickets will count day by day. In ecological habits, people are closer to crickets. For example, when winter comes, people will think of buying winter clothes, and when summer is too hot, they will make up their minds to buy air conditioners. Therefore, manufacturers who produce and sell timely goods are still inevitably affected by the climate.

Since the business community can't escape the influence of climate, so can the stock market, which represents the economic window. For example, in the long season when the climate is particularly hot or hot, the manufacturers of beer, beverages and air conditioners are in excellent operating conditions, and their share prices are bound to rise. If the rainy season is long, the construction, cement and building materials industries will be affected to some extent, and the stock price will inevitably fall. These phenomena virtually shape the seasonal sense of stocks.

However, with the change of living environment to some extent, some phenomena have changed recently. For example, when the cold current comes, people hide in the heating room to eat hot pot and drink frozen beer or cold drinks. Another example is the invention of electric heating formwork, which shortens the construction time and avoids the trouble of not being able to construct in rainy season. Of course, these phenomena are only changes to some extent, which does not mean a comprehensive reversal, but at least it shows the changes of the times.

Therefore, a growing stock continues to grow by its characteristics, regardless of the climate. For example, the growth rate of computer industry is often several times, while some industries that are greatly affected by climate are only 120% at most.

As far as the future is concerned, the products with more potential should be products that can enter the home or office in large numbers in the future, such as personal computers and commercial computers. At this point, most people almost have a concept. But because of this, like some computer companies in Japan, its share price has almost been reflected first. For example, Fujitsu and Nippon Electric, which were once unprofitable, now have market prices higher than 10 times the denomination. On the contrary, a company like Kirin Beer, whose annual profit is nearly 1 times, has only maintained its share price at an average level due to its lack of fashion sense!

Therefore, logically speaking, this is really unreasonable, but stocks are inherently unreasonable before there is a market, which is why some people say: stocks should be asked!