Large-scale rainfall is brewing in the north. Where should it rain? Will it affect the wheat harvest?

Original products, plagiarism is prohibited, and offenders will be prosecuted.

Last year's La Nina phenomenon is fresh in people's memory. Affected by extreme weather changes, crops all over the world have been damaged to varying degrees.

This year, this influence continues.

According to the data released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, La Nina may reappear in autumn or early winter this year, with a probability of over 60%.

La Nina's threat continues, and as China enters the flood season, the rainfall begins to increase obviously.

Some time ago, there was a pattern of "waterlogging in the south and drought in the north", that is, there was more rain in the south and less rain in the north, and even obvious drought in some areas.

But things will change.

1, large-scale rainfall is coming in the north.

According to the forecast of the Central Climate Center, next, the rain will go north, and the north will usher in a wide range of rainfall.

The main rainfall areas are located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, Haihe River, Huaihe River, Liaohe River and Yangtze River Basin. According to the forecast, from June 1 1, there will be showers in Hebei, Shandong, Beijing, Tianjin and other places, and the accumulated rainfall may reach 30-70 mm, with heavy rain in some areas.

Then the rain will continue to move northward, and Inner Mongolia and Northeast China will also be affected.

Many friends reported that there was little rain and drought in Shandong and Henan this year, but this situation will change.

2. Will it affect the wheat harvest?

Speaking of rainfall, people can't help but think of the scene of wheat harvest last year.

During the wheat harvest last year, some areas suffered from heavy rainfall and wheat was damaged in some areas, so there was quality differentiation, which disrupted the market trend.

This year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of June 6, the country has harvested 65,438+67 million mu of winter wheat, and the progress of wheat harvest has reached 55%, more than half.

In terms of time, this progress is basically the same as last year.

Among them, the wheat harvest in Sichuan, Hubei and other places has basically ended, and Anhui has entered the final stage. Henan's progress is over 80%, and Jiangsu is over half. Next, Shaanxi, Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei and other places will enter the harvest peak.

However, with the beginning of rainfall in the north, it means that the wheat harvest in Shandong, Hebei and other places may have a certain impact and needs to be collected.

The weather will continue to fluctuate in the second half of the year.

From a global perspective, although the weather disturbance has not had much impact on the global grain market so far, according to the above, La Nina's impact will appear in autumn or early winter in the second half of the year, while the northern hemisphere has just entered the sowing season. According to the law of previous years, the second half of the year is often disturbed by the weather.

On the other hand, global food prices fluctuate at a high level.

Affected by multiple factors such as high global inflation, persistent geopolitical conflicts, rising planting costs and transportation costs, food prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall. At this time, coupled with weather factors, global food prices will continue to run at a high level this year.

For more information, welcome to collect the New Concept of Agriculture and learn about the new development of agriculture, countryside and farmers in the new era.