Will Tonga volcano eruption lead to no summer for 22 years?

Not if we maintain our current strength.

First of all, we need to know something about "no summer". No summer, in fact, literally means no summer (more popularly, the temperature in summer is lower than that in the previous summer). As for why volcanic eruption is associated with no summer, we have to start with volcanic ash (more accurately, aerosol).

As we all know, volcanic eruption will bring out a lot of molten mud with extremely high temperature. When the weather is cold, it will turn into volcanic ash. Volcanic ash can often reach the height of stratosphere because of its strong jet.

Stratosphere, that is, the height at which we usually fly. The basic characteristics of this layer of atmosphere are less convection, relatively stable and not too many weather phenomena.

In this way, when volcanic ash enters the stratosphere, it will last for a long time (usually 1~5 years). A large amount of volcanic ash will reflect the solar radiation in the stratosphere and lower the ground temperature.

So the question is, how much volcanic ash does it take to lower the temperature in summer to the same as in other seasons, and then produce a "year without summer"?

Let's review the famous eruption of Mount Pinatubo in history. As the most famous volcanic eruption in the 20th century, the sulfur dioxide gas produced by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo is 20TG(TG stands for100t). After the huge sulfur dioxide of this magnitude entered the stratosphere, the solar radiation reaching the earth decreased by about 10%, thus creating a famous summer-free year in history.

On the other hand, the eruption of Tonga volcano seems to be far less than that of Pinatubo volcano. According to the existing observation data, only 0.4TG of sulfur dioxide has been released since the eruption of Tonga volcano, which is obviously a drop in the bucket compared with 20TG of Pinatubo.

Then someone will ask-the intensity of volcanic eruption in Tonga has reached VEI5(VEI is the volcanic intensity index, and the non-explosive eruption is 0, and the energy released by each additional level will increase by 10 times). Is there really no chance to witness the absence of summer?

The answer is-you need to see the follow-up observation. If this volcano erupts once, it will obviously be gone. However, if the subsequent eruption continues and even the magnitude exists objectively, then this is obviously an unknown number.

Therefore, science needs to be rigorous. The current observation data cannot accurately predict the real situation after 22 years. We can only simply analyze it through some numerical models. What may happen if you maintain the status quo or present some changes ~