How does climate affect oil prices?

Many countries in Europe and America use oil as heating fuel. Therefore, when the climate changes abnormally, it will cause short-term changes in the demand for fuel oil, thus driving the price changes of crude oil and other petroleum products. In addition, abnormal weather may cause damage to oil production facilities, lead to supply interruption, and then affect oil prices.

Government intervention will make the market consumption curve convex to the present or the future. The tax effect of intertemporal oil exploitation mode depends on the present tax value that changes with time. For example, with the passage of time, the reduction of the present value of tax will change the decision of mining order. Compared with no taxation, taxation will eventually reduce the net income at any time, and will also reduce the mining enthusiasm in the corresponding period. In addition, taxes will reduce the return on investment of newly discovered reserves.

Development trend of petroleum industry

price

Oil price is closely related to the global macroeconomic situation, so oil price is a key price. Some economists say that high oil prices have a negative impact on global economic growth. Although it is generally believed that high oil prices are caused by economic growth, it shows that the relationship between them is very unstable.

Because oil price reflects the pricing power of the countries where the spot and futures markets are located, the meaning of oil price is different in different periods. For example, the oil price statistics used by BP Company are the average price of US1861-KLOC-0/944, the price of Arabian light oil 1945- 1983, and the spot price of Brent 1983-2008. The fluctuation of oil price we refer to mainly depends on the forward price changes in new york and London futures markets.

In wartime, oil is often used as a "weapon". For example, during World War II, the United States imposed an embargo on Japan. Isoroku Yamamoto plans to sneak attack on Pearl Harbor in the United States, with the purpose of destroying American naval forces in the Pacific Ocean, so as to ensure Japanese oil supply and transportation lines from Southeast Asia.

During the oil crisis, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries used oil as a weapon to fight back against western countries, which led to the oil crisis and became the fuse of economic stagflation in western countries. After the end of the cold war, the era of globalization came. Oil returns to its commodity attribute. In a word, in the environment of peace and development, the political attribute of oil is weakened, the economic attribute becomes the norm, the financial attribute becomes more and more obvious, and oil price fluctuation becomes a financial phenomenon.

It should be noted that the "oil price" we usually hear on the radio is generally the real-time price in the futures markets of new york and London, while the oil price used for post-event statistics and research is generally the transaction price in the spot market.