Bad weather.

Since the continuous decline of corn, it has finally ushered in a rebound, but the market is still worried.

First of all, the wheat fell again.

As the "ceiling" of corn, wheat has been falling since the wheat crash. Although wheat stopped falling and rebounded later, it has fallen again recently.

On the one hand, the decline of wheat once again aggravated the bearish mood in the corn market, on the other hand, it also worried the market. If the price center of gravity of wheat falls further, then corn can only be forced to fall further.

Secondly, the weather is going to change, and I am worried that the corn will fall.

The autumn of wheat is a negative factor, and soon the weather will change again. According to the forecast of the meteorological department, many places in the north will clear up in the near future, and some areas will reach a high temperature of 30℃, and the scope will continue to expand.

According to the past practice, the weather will clear up, the quantity will increase, and the price of corn will drop with a high probability. Coupled with the decline in wheat and sluggish demand, the market is also worried that the center of gravity of corn prices will fall again.

The third is to worry that the rhythm of corn will be disrupted again.

Originally, according to previous analysis, corn had a chance to rebound around the end of April and the beginning of May.

On the one hand, because the May Day holiday is coming, this holiday can be said to be the only one since the first half of the year. The previous Qingming holiday was too short and the boost to consumption was not obvious. With the arrival of the May Day holiday, consumption may be concentrated, and the temperature rise on May Day is conducive to the recovery of tourism and catering.

On the other hand, pork consumption is also expected to rise, which will boost pig prices, boost feed demand, increase enterprises' replenishment, and benefit the trend of corn.

However, with the change of autumn wheat seeds and weather, there is great uncertainty whether the boost at the end of the month can be expected.

For example, in the short term, it is getting closer and closer to the listing of new wheat. On the one hand, some farmers began to operate warehouses to increase market supply and circulation; On the other hand, before the listing of new wheat, enterprises mainly wait and see. After all, everyone has no idea about the price of new wheat.

In addition, the supply of wheat is still going on, and in the recent report released by American Agriculture, China's wheat import volume has been raised again, reaching 654.38+0.2 million tons, the highest scale of global wheat import since 654.38+0.995. At the same time, it also means that China will become the largest wheat importer in the world.

Under these negative pressures, it is really difficult for wheat to rise, and the downturn of wheat also adds more uncertainty to the next trend of corn.

However, it is not difficult to speculate on the next trend of corn, because the market has released some signals:

First, although wheat is weak, it has a bottom.

For example, although the most influential wheat has fallen again, it can be seen that the policy intention is also obvious. Continuing to put it in is not to suppress wheat again, but the price is mostly even slightly higher in the market.

On the other hand, after the fall of wheat, traders were once panicked, but now their mood has eased. Although they are eager to get the goods, they are in conflict when the price is too low, and no one wants to lose too much.

Therefore, although wheat has fallen, it is unlikely to fall again. If the wheat can hold on, then the corn will not be too out of control.

Second, the weather keeps repeating, and the corn starts the shock mode.

According to the previous analysis, it is the soybean planting season. Under the background of expanding soybean planting, the policy should not boost corn at this time, so at this time, the weather is the only thing that can affect corn fluctuation except wheat.

Although after this round of sandstorm, many places in the north turned sunny and the temperature soared, it was short-lived. Because according to the weather forecast, a new cold air will affect the north from 19. By then, there will be another temperature fluctuation in the northwest, north China, Huanghuai and northeast China, with a big difference between cold and warm.

This means that the corn will continue to fluctuate with great probability.