What is the current situation and development prospect of the computer industry?

-Foresee the panorama of supercomputing industry in China in 2023:2023 (with market scale, competition pattern and development prospect, etc.). )

Major listed companies in supercomputer industry: Legend Holdings (03396. HK)； Inspur information (000977. SZ)； Zhongke Shuguang (6030 19. SH)

The core data of this paper: the performance of Chinese supercomputers; The number and share of the top 500 supercomputing systems in China; China high-performance computer performance TOP 100 relates to the proportion of application fields; China Supercomputes the service market scale; Proportion of Top 100 High Performance Computer Manufacturers in China

General situation of industry

1, definition

Supercomputing (HPC, high performance

Computing) refers to the use of centralized computing resources of multiple computer systems working in parallel (that is, "supercomputers") to deal with extremely complex or data-intensive problems.

Supercomputers, also known as high-performance computers, supercomputers and so on. , in terms of operation speed and storage capacity, has super high performance that ordinary computers do not have. At present, the floating-point operation speed per second (flops) is the main unit of measurement. Supercomputers can operate hundreds of millions of times per second, which is tens of millions of times that of ordinary computers. Supercomputers with trillions of operations per second are called "P-class supercomputers" and supercomputers with billions of operations per second are called "E-class supercomputers".

Supercomputers are mainly used in frontier scientific research, national defense and military industry, industrial upgrading, major social issues and other big sciences, big projects and big systems. They are the embodiment of a country's scientific research strength and an important symbol of the country's scientific and technological development level and comprehensive national strength. Based on the demand for computing power resources, Sullivan divides high-performance computing into four categories: frontier supercomputers, general supercomputers, commercial supercomputers and artificial intelligence supercomputers.

2. Industrial chain analysis: there are fewer participants in the middle reaches.

At present, China has initially formed an industrial chain of supercomputing industry, and the upstream is the supporting industries of supercomputing industry, including basic hardware, basic software, application software and supporting infrastructure resources (power equipment, refrigeration equipment, security system, integrated wiring, etc.). ); The middle reaches are supercomputer manufacturers, supercomputer centers and supercomputer research institutions. , integrate upstream resources and provide powerful supercomputer resources; Downstream is the application field of supercomputing industry, including oil and gas exploration, biomedicine, ocean engineering, weather forecast, engineering simulation, smart city and so on.

Judging from the participants in the supercomputing industry chain, the manufacturers of upstream basic hardware and basic software are mainly well-known foreign enterprises such as Intel, AMD, HPE, Samsung and Dell, while the development of domestic enterprises is relatively backward. Domestic manufacturers mainly include Huawei Hisilicon, Changjiang Storage and Parallel Technology. In terms of application software, representative enterprises include Zhongwang Software, Intel Simulation, Speedstone Technology, Suochen Technology, etc.

Midstream supercomputing resource providers are mainly divided into two categories. One is supercomputer manufacturers represented by Lenovo, Inspur and Zhongke Shuguang, which provide commercial supercomputer products, including supercomputer software and hardware products; The other is a supercomputer development institution represented by National University of Defense Technology, National Research Center for Parallel Computer Engineering Technology, Jiangnan Institute of Computing Technology and Computing Institute of Chinese Academy of Sciences, and its supercomputer system is deployed in national supercomputer centers all over the country.

Industrial development process: from closed monopoly to leading innovation

Looking at the development of supercomputing industry in China, it is a hard-working and pioneering process for Chinese researchers, which has surpassed breaking blockade (1956- 1995), breaking monopoly (1996-20 15) and leading innovation (20/kloc-0).

At present, in the field of supercomputing, the domestic ecological independent research and development strength has been in the leading position in the world. In 2022, 95% of the TOP 100 high-performance computers in China were independently developed, and 42 computers in the 100 cluster were made by Lenovo. China Supercomputer entered the first echelon in the world.

Industrial policy background: Building E-class and 10E-class supercomputing centers.

In recent years, the intensive introduction of national policies has strongly supported the development of computing power, high-performance computers and supercomputing industry, and promoted the rapid development of supercomputing center construction. The supercomputer industry policy at the national level is summarized as follows:

Current situation of industry development

1. Supercomputer performance: The performance will be significantly improved in 2022.

Generally speaking, the performance of supercomputing in China is improving year by year, with the average performance rising from 573 Tflops in 20 13 to 8999 in 2022.

Tflops. Among them, from 2016 to 2020, Shenwei Taihu Light kept the top position for five consecutive years, with the Linpack value of 930 15.

Tflops, 202 1 and 2022 Shenwei Taihu Light ranked second and third respectively.

In 2022, the highest performance of supercomputers in China will reach 208,260.

Tflops, compared with the highest performance of 202 1, increased by 66.55%, and the performance was significantly improved, which led to the average performance of supercomputers increased by 30. 16%, reaching 8999 Tflops.

2. Construction of supercomputing centers: * * There are 1 1 national supercomputing centers.

The National Supercomputing Center is a data computing institution approved by the Ministry of Science and Technology, and it is a subordinate institution of the Ministry of Science and Technology. On April 18, 2022, Taiyuan Center passed the acceptance of the Ministry of Science and Technology and was formally incorporated into the national super-calculation sequence management. By August 2023, there will be 1 1 national supercomputing centers in China, namely Tianjin Center, Shenzhen Center, Jinan Center, Guangzhou Center, Changsha Center, Wuxi Center, Chengdu Center, Zhengzhou Center, Kunshan Center, xi 'an Center and Taiyuan Center.

Number of top 3.500: ranked second in the world in June 2023.

As one of the largest authoritative conferences in the field of high performance computing in the world, the International Conference on High Performance Computing publishes the list of the top 500 supercomputers in the world every six months. From 20 17-2022, the number of supercomputing systems from Chinese mainland showed a trend of rising first and then falling, mainly because China stopped submitting the latest supercomputing system information to TOP500 organization from 2020, so the number and computing power ratio declined. In 20221October, there were 1 162 manufacturers from China, accounting for 32.4%, ranking first in the world. In June, 2023, the number of supercomputing top 500 systems in China dropped from 162 to 134, accounting for 26.8%, ranking second in the world.

4. Supercomputing application field: Big data field accounts for the highest proportion.

Among the top 100 high-performance computers in China in 202210, the most involved field is big data, accounting for 20%; Followed by the field of cloud computing, accounting for15%; Computing services and video accounted for 12%.

5. The market scale of supercomputing services: growing at a rate of 24.5%.

According to Frost &;

According to Sullivan's research data, the compound growth rate of China supercomputing service market reached 24.7% in 20 16-202 1 year, and the market scale in 20021year was196.6 billion yuan, with the growth rate of about 24.5% in 2022. Based on this calculation, the market size of China Supercomputing Service will be about 244 in 2022.

Industry competition pattern

1. Regional competition: Guangdong and Jiangsu are the central provinces of Shuangchao.

By August 2023, there were 1 1 national supercomputing centers in China. Among them, Guangdong and Jiangsu are the provinces with double supercomputing centers, Guangdong has the National Supercomputing Shenzhen Center and Guangzhou Center, and Jiangsu has the National Supercomputing Wuxi Center and Kunshan Center. At the same time, Tianjin, Shandong, Hunan, Sichuan, Henan, Shaanxi, Shanxi and other provinces and cities also have national supercomputing centers.

2. Enterprise competition: Lenovo ranks first in the world.

In the latest list of the top 500 global high-performance computers in June 2023, Lenovo Group in Beijing has 160 HPC systems, ranking first in the world. Inspur Group in Jinan has 43 HPC systems, ranking third in the world. Zhongke Shuguang, located in Tianjin, has 23 HPC systems shortlisted, ranking sixth in the world.

According to HPC,

In the Top 1 100 list of high-performance computers in China released in June 2022, Lenovo has the most models on the list, accounting for 42%, and most of the models on the list are Shen Teng 8800 series; Followed by the wave, accounting for 27%; Shuguang ranked third, accounting for 10%.

Industry development prospect and trend forecast

1. Development prospect: the market scale will be nearly 90 billion yuan in 2028.

At present, Supercomputer is providing computing power services for key industries in China through advanced electronic technology, computing services and software applications. The construction of the ecological chain of supercomputing industry will substantially promote the adjustment, upgrading and transformation of related industries in the field of supercomputing application, and it is expected that the market scale will continue to expand in the future. According to frost,

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Sullivan predicted that the compound growth rate of the supercomputing service market in China will be about 24. 1% from 2022 to 2025. If this growth rate continues, by 2028, China's supercomputer service market will be close to 90 billion yuan.

2. Development trend: towards distributed and "brain-like" direction.

At present, the main problem restricting the development of supercomputers is high energy consumption. Take the top ten supercomputers in the world as an example, which consume more than 20,000 kWh per hour, which is equivalent to the power consumption of a small town. In order to solve this problem, supercomputers will develop in the direction of distribution and "brain-like" in the future

For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the Analysis Report on Market Demand Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning of China Supercomputing Industry by Forward-looking Industry Research Institute.