Record of the Japanese Earthquake Apocalypse Program

The first episode "The Butterfly Effect"

Content introduction:

"How can there be a complete egg under the overturned nest", a natural earthquake and tsunami Disasters can easily cross national borders and affect the entire world. In the context of economic globalization, the Japanese earthquake, tsunami and nuclear leakage accidents directly led to economic fluctuations and disruptions in the production chain. The "butterfly effect" theory explains the realistic impact of disaster globalization. The first episode of "The Great Japanese Earthquake Apocalypse" "Butterfly Wings" tells the story of how the three overlapping disasters encountered in Japan have affected the world step by step.

Text:

Explanation: On the afternoon of March 11, 2011, China’s A-share market experienced a thrilling scene. Originally, the Shanghai Composite Index turned red at 2:35 and had an upward trend. However, when news of the Japanese earthquake came, the stock index immediately turned around and dived straight down. This is the direct response of China's capital market to Japan's magnitude 9 earthquake that day.

Interview with Xiang Songzuo: Our current global capital market and financial market are full of turbulence and turmoil. If something happens somewhere, it will cause very violent turmoil.

Commentary: Xiang Songzuo, deputy director of the International Monetary Institute of Renmin University of China.

Interview with Xiang Songzuo: Against this background, oil prices have soared and commodity prices have soared. Everyone will be affected by this, so you should understand this disaster as a disaster for all mankind.

Commentary: Almost at the same time as the huge waves of the tsunami rushed to the land, panic spread in the global capital market - the Nikkei 225 index plummeted in panic, and the stock markets of South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore followed suit that day. thereafter. The great earthquake in Japan sent a tragic first wave to the world in the form of a sharp shrinkage in the financial market.

Interview with Xiang Songzuo, Deputy Director of the Institute of International Monetary Studies at Renmin University of China: In an era without globalization, disasters that occurred here would have very little impact on other regions. But globalization has amplified everything. I think this is the second one, that is, natural disasters and man-made disasters. Due to the deepening of globalization, this risk, this disaster, and its impact will be dramatically amplified. . What I think is the third big issue is globalization itself. It will create a lot of new risks. Without globalization, you don't have this risk.

Chuanchang: When we say that the world has entered an era of globalization, we are referring more to the economic and trade interdependence between countries. On March 11, the major earthquake and tsunami in Japan reminded people that the impact of a disaster is not limited to Japan but is spreading to the entire world. So are disasters becoming more and more global today? How did it become a global event that is relevant to everyone?

Commentary: From the sudden magnitude 9 earthquake to the tsunami with a maximum height of more than 40 meters; from the fear and suspicion of the Fukushima nuclear leakage to the still unresolved global spread of radioactive materials. How did the impact of this disaster spread from Japan to the world? The butterfly effect is the best interpretation.

Research by American meteorologist Edward Lorenz shows: "A butterfly in the tropical rainforest of the Amazon River Basin in South America, occasionally flapping its wings a few times, can cause a tsunami in Texas two weeks later." A tornado in Sizhou "The reason is that the movement of the butterfly's wings causes changes in the air system around it and generates weak airflow, and the generation of weak airflow will cause corresponding changes in the surrounding air or other systems. This causes a chain reaction that ultimately leads to dramatic changes in other systems. This theory explains that very small changes in initial conditions can have catastrophic results after being continuously amplified by the global atmospheric circulation system. Later it was discovered that this theory is also applicable in many fields such as weather and stock market. At 13:46 on March 11, 2011, a violent plate collision occurred off the coast of Honshu Island, Japan, which promoted an unprecedented butterfly effect to the surface.

These scenes have been deeply remembered by people. This is one of the largest earthquakes in the history of earthquake records. The power from the earth's crust shows its destructive power to mankind through tsunamis. In this huge disaster butterfly flapping At the beginning of the wings, the price paid by mankind was the loss of tens of thousands of lives and countless property losses. Later, the tsunami continued to spread to the Pacific Rim at a speed of 800 kilometers per hour.

Interview with Gao Mengtan, Deputy Director of the Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration: In the era of globalization, the impact of this disaster is indeed a non-physical way, affecting through various channels.

Commentary: Gao Mengtan, deputy director of the Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration.

Interview with Gao Mengtan, Deputy Director of the Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration: Mainly with the progress of globalization, the connection between countries is not only a geographical connection, but also a Connections through economic or other circumstances, including energy resources, must be globally allocated in the era of globalization, and no country can solve the problem on its own.

Commentary: Just three minutes after the earthquake, the Japanese government issued a tsunami warning signal.

Six minutes later, the United States, which was far away on the other side of the ocean and it was late at night, also issued a warning. At the same time, China, South Korea, the Philippines, Russia and other countries also took the same action. A series of tsunami warnings spread from the east and west coasts of the Pacific.

Commentary: Mainland China has not experienced a major tsunami with serious damage in five hundred years, but this still cannot reduce our vigilance to the surrounding situation. In the past five years, there have been many earthquakes and tsunamis around the world, and the shocking South Asian tsunami in 2004 is a nightmare that mankind cannot forget. It was the most destructive tsunami on record, killing 300,000 people or missing.

Interview with Shi Peijun: In the past era when the world developed in relative isolation, technological progress would have limited benefits and harms to one place.

Commentary: Shi Peijun, deputy director of the Expert Committee of the National Disaster Reduction Committee.

Interview with Shi Peijun: However, with the advancement of the Internet age and the era of globalization, extreme events in any place may follow the information chain, information network, supply chain, and production of globalization. The chain affects the whole world.

Commentary: After the middle of the 20th century, the development of science and technology accelerated mankind into an era "marked by the application of atomic energy, electronic computers, space technology and bioengineering". It seems that our control of nature can be improved by this. Handy. But whenever humans are satisfied with this, nature will always warn us with greater power.

Interview with Shi Peijun: So today we must use another way of thinking to understand that technological progress in any place today is likely to benefit the entire world. However, any technological progress will bring about various beneficial consequences. , when it is possible that accidents may cause disadvantages, it will also create a risk chain along such a benefit chain.

Explanation: Once a risk occurs, the disaster chain will be quickly linked. The Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant is about 140 kilometers away from the epicenter. The earthquake and tsunami immediately hit the largest nuclear power plant in the world. The damaged cooling system could not work properly, and the temperature of the reactor continued to rise. The butterfly effect of the disaster was being affected by the tsunami. After pushing to land, it began to advance according to its own logic in the sky above the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant.

Interview with Yin Zhi: As an old Chinese saying goes, no egg will be finished until the nest is overturned.

Commentary: Yin Zhi, Dean of the Tsinghua Urban Planning and Design Institute in Beijing.

Yin Zhi: That is to say, at any point in your life, whether it is global pollution or bad emissions, its impact will have a global effect.

Commentary: On March 12, two explosions occurred at the No. 1 reactor of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, and residents within a 20-kilometer radius were forced to evacuate.

Interview with Shinji Tahara: Compared with people in Northeast China, I am very lucky. Watching TV every day, the people affected by the disaster are so pitiful. Compared with them, I am so lucky.

Commentary: Shinji Tahara, a Japanese freelance writer.

Tahara Shinji: On the one hand, I feel lucky, but on the other hand, I am very worried. I find that this is a conflicting mentality, not only for myself, but also for all my friends.

Commentary: The critical situation at the Fukushima nuclear power plant immediately attracted widespread attention from the international community, and various countries successively sent rescue teams to Japan to participate in the rescue. The United States even requested that the "Reagan" aircraft carrier participating in the South Korean and US military exercises immediately sail to Japan. International rescue forces quickly gathered in Japan in accordance with the usual international assistance model.

Interview with Feng Yi: Another very big feature of this time is the comprehensive disaster rescue concept of multiple disasters.

Commentary: Feng Yi, researcher at China Nuclear Energy Industry Association and expert at the National Nuclear Emergency Coordination Committee.

Interview with Feng Yi: It should be said that Japan is a very experienced country in the event of a separate tsunami and an earthquake. All island countries also have rich experience in the event of a separate tsunami. The problem is that when these three disasters are superimposed, there are even clusters at the Fukushima base. The first nuclear power (station unit), the second nuclear power (station unit), and ten nuclear power (station units) are in crisis at the same time. The director of the French Nuclear Safety Authority made a fair statement. He said that since mankind has used nuclear energy, we have never encountered such a high-intensity and intensive challenge, and our Japanese colleagues have encountered it.

Commentary: After March 12, Units 2 and 4 of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant exploded one after another, and the evacuation radius suddenly expanded to 30 kilometers. The horrific memory of the nuclear bomb explosion and the chaotic data information are testing the bottom line of the Japanese people's psychological endurance.

Interview with Feng Yi: We have also seen recently that there is no man's land within a radius of 20 kilometers, that is, there are basically no residents, and everyone has been evacuated. It is too difficult to decontaminate, and there is such a psychological trauma that people are reluctant to come back. This is what I mentioned, the so-called stigma effect in sociology. No matter how clean your government is in cleaning me up, the shadow left on my mind cannot be completely washed away.

Commentary: The nuclear material scattered in the wind caused the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier that came to the rescue to quickly evacuate. The continuous explosions from Fukushima made Japan have to withstand earthquakes and earthquakes in less than 24 hours. Multiple blows from tsunamis and nuclear material leaks. The butterfly effect of disaster spreads around the world along with atmospheric circulation and ocean currents.

Interview with Xiang Songzuo: In the past 40 years, the biggest change that has occurred to mankind as a whole is the rapid deepening of globalization that I just mentioned. It involves everyone in the global system. In the future, no matter where you have a problem, it will affect everyone in the world. So I think this is the most fundamental fact that we humans are facing now.

Commentary: On March 16, a Japanese plane contaminated with excessive radioactive material was found at Dalian International Airport; on March 29, officials confirmed that extremely small amounts of radioactive material had been detected in all provinces in China except Tibet. The content will not affect the environment and public health. As for the megacity Tokyo, which is very close to Fukushima, more people are leaving the country or moving south for safety reasons.

Interview with passengers at the airport: It’s a terrible feeling. I’m on tenterhooks every day, as if I’m going crazy.

Interview with passengers at the airport: Japan’s buildings are still okay and generally won’t collapse in earthquakes. But we are still afraid of tsunamis, but if there is a tsunami, we have to go to high ground. At least we can escape. But once a nuclear power plant leaks, we have no place to escape.

Interview with Shinji Tahara: I notice my own ambivalence. I think many Tokyoites are like this too, right? Although it was not directly affected by the disaster, it was indirectly affected by a very large shock. I began to feel uneasy about what to do next.

Commentary: Narita Airport is full of foreigners who have returned to their countries for refuge. A nuclear crisis has turned many people outside the disaster area into "invisible victims." The second wave of the butterfly effect of the disaster, symbolized by the frightening nuclear leakage, was further amplified in the flow of people.

Reporter: In the past, when we talked about globalization, we mainly referred to economic globalization. After the disaster in Japan, what new content will be added to the concept of globalization?

Xiang Songzuo: You can imagine everything in your daily life. If you count them all, you will find that these things come from all over the world, that is, they are produced by one country or one region. If something cannot meet your needs, its industry chain has become globalized first. Therefore, this globalization is already an all-round globalization, and even goes deep into people's spiritual level.

Explanation: Globalization has turned the earth into an intricate system where you are part of me and you are part of me. Interdependence is a characteristic of this era. In this highly complex system, the butterfly effect of disaster begins to spread around the world using all the tools and paths it can use.

Reporter: And now it seems that this amplification is not happening in Japan alone. It is now a problem on a global scale.

Yin Zhi: That’s right. After global economic integration, especially after information technology has created a new global family, it is inevitable that the city gate will be on fire and the fish in the pond will be affected. Now the world is an intertwined industrial chain, including production, manufacturing, circulation, etc. If any one of your chains is broken, the efficiency of the entire system will at least decrease.

Explanation: The complex chain effects of the "Butterfly Effect" may happen to us every day. We cannot go back and change our past to change our future. What we need is to grasp it correctly. Our present. This compound disaster caused by the earthquake occurred in Japan, a country with a developed economy, good quality of citizens, and rich experience in dealing with earthquake disasters. People instinctively imagined that this might be able to minimize the losses caused by natural disasters. However, what people did not expect was that the butterfly effect of the disaster not only did not stop its movement, but was instead amplified by the chain effects of globalization.

Interview with Gao Mengtan: Not every butterfly has an effect, it may be a specific butterfly.

Reporter: What kind of butterfly would have such a big global effect under what circumstances?

Gao Mengtan: For example, if you are in a certain place in the Middle East, if a big earthquake occurs and many oil fields are closed or oil facilities are destroyed, then the global oil price may rise very quickly. To a point that you can't bear. Then the impact on the industrial economy and industrial commerce will immediately reflect huge power.

Commentary: As the nuclear leakage worsens day by day, the butterfly effect of the disaster continues to operate according to its own logic, and its power is gradually revealed on a larger scale around the world as time goes by. With. Although hundreds of warriors fought with their lives to stop the leak at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, they still failed to change the overall trend of the disaster. Deeper influences also follow, and food is the most direct manifestation of this chain effect. Japanese food has always been popular around the world for its high quality and safety. However, after the nuclear accident, trace amounts of radioactive substances were detected in vegetables near Fukushima, Japan, and in tap water in Tokyo. 25 countries and regions, including the United States, China, Singapore, and South Korea, restricted the import of Japanese agricultural products and processed foods. At this time, the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant and Chernobyl are remembered by mankind.

Xiang Songzuo: Nowadays, many Japanese products, for example, no one dares to import them. Although scientists say that they may not cause much harm, in the hearts of ordinary people, sometimes they are not as scientific as you. The data is not completely proportional

Commentary: The Japanese government appeals to WTO member states: Do not overreact to nuclear leaks and do not set barriers to Japanese food.

However, out of fear of Japan dumping nuclear sewage into the sea, some snack bars that specialize in imported food have tacitly never mentioned "imported from Japan". Japan's food safety crisis is as silent as nuclear radiation but as overwhelming as the sea. arrival. Did the world really overreact to the Japanese tsunami and the secondary disasters it caused?

Reporter: We now know that what happened a while ago is that with the spread of iodine-131 in the air, if radioactive materials enter the sea or even flow into the ground, what is the harm?

Feng Yi: This hazard is very serious. As a fluid, its diffusion underground is uncontrollable to some extent. If it is a marine ecology, the long-term accumulation of high-level radioactive waste liquid will constitute an ecological disaster in a sea area of ??3 to 50 kilometers. Some of the sludge inside will be highly polluted. Take cesium-137 as an example, its half-life is 30 years.

Reporter: Is this cesium-137 present in water?

Feng Yi: It is soluble in water.

Commentary: The whole world is remembering the desperate warriors at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. However, their admirable efforts failed to prevent the butterfly effect of the disaster from starting to enter a more complex and huge crisis. System, air, water, vegetables, and milk have all become media for the spread of nuclear materials. It is precisely through these systems that are closely related to people's daily lives that this disaster broke through earthquakes, tsunamis, and nuclear leaks, and directly began the process of the third wave of global spread from a psychological level.

Xiang Songzuo: I believe that no one would have thought a week ago that the nuclear crisis would be so serious, nor would they have thought that it would have such a profound impact on the ocean in the future. So now this problem is also placed in front of us Chinese, not only in front of the Japanese, but also in front of all surrounding countries. What will you do in the future?

Commentary: When the Internet was exploited by the butterfly effect of disaster, incomprehensible panic ensued. At first, as the information about the Japanese nuclear leak continued to be updated and developed, the Internet began to spread rumors that the BBC had released a report on nuclear proliferation. Alert, relevant departments will refute the rumors as soon as possible.

Shui Junyi said at the same time: The official website introduced that the BBC specially issued a statement saying that the BBC has never made such a report.

Commentary: In fact, after the Japanese nuclear accident, there were many incidents of "overreaction" caused by panic around the world. The United States started buying iodine-containing foods the day after the earthquake in Japan. Phenomenon. Six days later, Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said in a televised speech that not only the evacuation areas around the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, but also adjacent areas on the northeastern coast, had been sold out. On March 16, in markets across China, a wave of salt rush fell from the sky without any warning!

Interview with Yin Zhi: In fact, the ability to resist rumors or the only way to resist fear is to go back to the old saying that knowledge is power. In fact, what we are facing is the popularization of various types of natural science knowledge among the people. Only if you know this will you not feel afraid. And then it inspires a fear mentality to spread it.

Reporter: People have long been accustomed to this situation - capital can be transferred across continents in a few seconds, and information can be transmitted with almost zero time difference. In fact, it also means When a disaster occurs in one corner of the world, it can quickly spread around the world. So we saw the kind of overreaction stemming from panic that occurred in many countries, such as grabbing salt. The question is which of people's reactions are excessive, and which of them may not be enough? This may be a question that takes a long time to answer.

Commentary: Through the active response of the Chinese government and mainstream media, the rush to buy quickly receded, and this unexpected storm was quickly subsided. However, psychological panic can be subsided immediately by timely refutation of rumors, but the huge impact of a series of disasters on the global economy has just begun.

In the era of globalization, when people gain the benefits of globalization, they will also realize the risks and even costs of globalization at certain special moments. The first to be affected is the automobile manufacturing industry. Japan is an important link in the world's automobile industry chain. Japan's three major automobile manufacturers, Toyota, Honda, and Nissan, had a total of 22 factories closed after the earthquake. If normality cannot be restored as soon as possible, the world's automobile production will decline two months after the earthquake. Volume may drop by as much as 30%. The manufacturing sector often responds to disaster later than the immediate disaster, but has the greatest impact on globalized life.

Reporter: When it comes to cars, you may have a stronger intuitive feeling, because at the end of sales, in 4S stores, and all sellers, Japanese cars are increasing in price and even joint ventures Car prices are also going up.

Xiang Songzuo: Some key spare parts are produced in areas affected by the earthquake in Japan. Now that production is stopped, it is a problem in the short term. The impact will not be eliminated in one or two months, or even two quarters.

Explanation: If the concept of globalization is explained in simple and straightforward language, the globalization of the industrial chain means "financing where the financing cost is lowest, producing where the production cost is the lowest, and selling at the lowest price." Top local sales”.

Japanese automobile manufacturers have always been a model of low cost and high efficiency. Take Toyota as an example. Toyota's management philosophy is "order-centered just-in-time production" and "zero inventory" is Toyota's pursuit. Since the 1970s, global The manufacturing industry is learning from Toyota's supply chain management, and just-in-time and zero inventory have become the pursuit of all companies. However, in the face of earthquakes and tsunamis, the perfect production method was ruthlessly broken.

Xiang Songzuo: Everything has a good side and a bad side, and nothing is completely good. No matter how advanced your technology is, it will have its own risks, no matter how advanced your management methods are, they will have their own risks, and no matter how good your products are, they will have their own side effects. So this is globalization, which amplifies this even more, because it expands your entire risks and benefits to the whole world.

Explanation: The Japanese earthquake directly hit Japan’s economic and manufacturing center, which also means a blow to the world economy. According to estimates from the "Nihon Keizai Shimbun", this earthquake at least affected the world's manufacturing industry. An output value of US$476 billion was lost. In Japanese terms, this was "causing trouble for the whole world."

Interview with Xiang Songzuo: It now seems that the disaster in Japan will have an extremely profound impact on almost all aspects of the world. Not only the currency market, but also the financial market, including the industrial chain.

Explanation: At least five electronic components of Apple's tablet computer iPad2 are produced by Japanese manufacturers. Even if some parts can be produced by other manufacturers, because the iPad 2 battery is very thin, only Japanese ones are available. Technology can produce. Therefore, Apple may face supply shortages of multiple key components for the iPad 2. The logistics system destroyed by the earthquake, coupled with the insufficient supply of electricity and fuel, means that it may take months or even years to heal the wounds of this earthquake

Electronic product salesperson: This disaster Areas such as Sendai and Fukushima are areas where Japan's electronics industry is relatively developed. The supply of goods on the market is currently relatively scarce, and each manufacturer has not yet given a clear answer as to when the goods will arrive.

Explanation: If the nuclear leakage crisis is not effectively controlled, nuclear radiation pollutants will undoubtedly have a serious impact on Japan's natural environment, agricultural and fishery industries, tourism, logistics industry and foreign economic and trade activities. , thus affecting global trade. In fact, due to fear of nuclear radiation, merchant ships from many countries have stopped docking at the Port of Tokyo. The butterfly effect of the disaster has caused huge shocks to the global manufacturing industry by cutting off the supply chain. It has also been affected by earthquakes and tsunamis, the spread of nuclear radiation, and food panics. After that, it became the fourth wave affecting the world.

Xiang Songzuo: Japan’s economy is in a relatively high-end position in the industrial chain, such as the production of some core accessories and high-tech accessories. You can immediately move to Can we come from China? OK, but it will take some time, not right away. Because this involves not only buying production line equipment, but also management issues and employee training issues, so this will take a certain amount of time.

Commentary: More than a month has passed since the great earthquake in Japan. Tokyo Electric Power Company and the Japanese government are using various methods to try to close the Pandora's box of nuclear crisis as soon as possible. An earthquake and tsunami occurred in Japan. The nuclear crisis caused by the nuclear crisis, after a series of transmission, amplification and fermentation of the butterfly effect, has thrown a series of problems to mankind that must be faced and solved together - how to block the transmission of disaster effects in a timely manner? How do humans and nature coexist? Perhaps, if human beings want to progress, such collisions will always exist.

Reporter: So this kind of disaster is not only a disaster in one place in Japan, but also a disaster on a worldwide scale. Is this an occasional situation this time or is it becoming a disaster? A trend?

Shi Peijun: It is a complete trend, mainly due to the strengthening of the interconnectedness of human society, which causes disasters in one place to have a significantly greater impact on other places.

Commentary:

As the nuclear crisis escalates and the economic and psychological impacts continue to emerge, the subsequent impacts caused by the earthquake are still expanding and spreading in various ways. The development trajectory of this disaster has step by step exceeded humanity's current experience and imagination. While forcing countries to come up with countermeasures, it has also prompted people of different nationalities, different skin colors and languages ??to reflect on the global challenges encountered in human history. A comprehensive review of sexual disasters. Why did today's regional disaster evolve into such a huge global event? What are the reasons that make it increasingly difficult for people to bear the risks brought about by the globalization of disasters?

CCTV will continue to broadcast the second episode "Fukushima Redemption" and the third episode "Nuclear Power Disaster".