The difference between a meteorologist and a meteorologist

Four words: forecast the weather

2. How does the weatherman predict the weather?

Eight words: grasp the present and predict the future.

In fact, these weather forecasters are all announcers, many of them are broadcast hosts, and the real forecasters are meteorological professionals.

Everyone should have the image of a weatherman. They are not glamorous men and women in the weather forecast on TV. In fact, the weatherman is a group of people who analyze the data in front of the computer all day, draw the conclusion of the weather forecast, and then provide it to the weatherman. Sounds a little circuitous. Simply put, the forecaster is the technical support behind the weather forecast. They turn a pile of incomprehensible data and products into a predictive language that the public can understand. They are on duty 24 hours a day, all year round, and there are no normal holidays and weekends. Most of these people are not photogenic. You can only see the forecaster when the chief forecaster is interviewed by the media.

It should be possible to distinguish between an announcer and a forecaster. Then let's solve the second problem. How does the weatherman predict the weather?

The eight-character policy mentioned at the beginning is a high-level summary of the weather forecasting process: grasp the present and predict the future.

How to grasp the present?

The so-called grasp of the present is to understand the basic information of weather situation, current situation of atmospheric circulation, development of weather situation and meteorological elements on the ground. In other words, we should know both "heaven" and "earth". Next, I'm going to introduce another kind of unknown meteorologists, whose names are "meteorological observers", that is, these hard workers who provide on-site information for weather forecasters. Similarly, they are on duty 24 hours a day, all year round, with no normal holidays and weekends. The weather forecast can't stop for a day, and neither can the meteorological observation.

At present, the existing observation methods are very rich. In order to get the live information of high altitude, radiosonde observation will be carried out at 08h and 20h (14h, some radiosonde stations will carry out encrypted observation, and the number of stations is very small, so little information is obtained).

There is also the satellite cloud picture that you all know, which is also a means of high-altitude observation. At present, there are two types of meteorological satellites: polar orbiting satellites and geosynchronous satellites. I won't go into details here, it's a bit complicated and it's not the focus of today's discussion.

Of course, there are other means of high-altitude observation, such as lidar, microwave radiometer, wpr and so on. , but the most widely used in business are the sounding observation and meteorological satellites mentioned above.

Everyone must know how to obtain near-surface meteorological factors. We have meteorological observation stations all over the country, and there are many unattended meteorological automatic stations (unattended, automatically transmitting data of temperature, pressure, humidity and wind).

There are many elements observed by meteorological observation stations: temperature, humidity, wind speed, air pressure, precipitation, visibility, sunshine, ground temperature, soil temperature and other meteorological elements (the sounding observation stations mentioned above are all high-grade observation stations, and most of them do not undertake sounding observation tasks).

There is also an observation station called radar station to observe the development of precipitation echo.

Radar is the most direct and effective means to observe precipitation, which is widely used in short-term approaching (0~3 hours) forecasting business.

The development of observation means can provide the latest live data. Through these data, meteorologists can understand the current situation of the atmosphere and the ground, so as to know what they are, that is, to grasp the present.

So how to "predict the future"?

In forecasting, the important information that forecasters rely on now is numerical model products. At present, the numerical forecast products commonly used in business include European Center, East China Regional Center (made in China), T639 (made in China), GFS, Japanese Model, NCEP and so on. All numerical products have weather situation field and factor field forecast. In other words, all models will tell the forecaster the weather, temperature and wind force tomorrow, the day after tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. Speaking of which, many people will say, isn't that very simple? I'll tell you what the weather is, and you haven't reported it yet? Just report the results according to the numerical model, won't you? Look, it's really simple. Are there all kinds of light pleasures? But this is not the case. ...

As I said just now, each numerical model will tell you what the weather is like and what the elements are, but the prediction results of each model are different, and very different situations often occur. No model can always predict accurately.

So the question is, who should forecasters listen to? How to report it? When all the models were fighting, the weatherman came on. According to their own actual information, local climate characteristics and personal experience, they comprehensively consider various possible influencing factors, make subjective corrections to numerical products, and finally give a forecast conclusion.

Because of different personal understanding, different forecasters are likely to give different forecast conclusions about the weather in the same place and on the same day. In order to facilitate the exchange of views among forecasters and discuss the weather situation, the National Bureau holds weather consultation meetings at 8 o'clock every day on time, and the provinces also organize intra-provincial consultations according to actual needs, and cities also organize weather consultations between cities and counties. It is at this level that forecasters all over the country discuss how to report the future weather every day.

Of course, even so, forecasters are not omnipotent, and we often report mistakes. The weather forecast can never be 100% accurate, but the forecaster is always working hard at 100%. We always admit that we will report mistakes, but even if we report mistakes, we are still working hard, attentively and seriously. Please forgive us for our limited technology and lack of ability.

Basically, let's summarize. A forecaster is someone who tells you whether it will be windy or rainy in the next few days. On the basis of solid professional knowledge, they subjectively revised the prediction results of the numerical model by relying on the obtained live information, climate background and personal experience. And convert the predicted conclusions into a language that the public can understand. Finally, the weather forecast is released to the public through various channels, so you can see it on TV, on the Internet and in newspapers.

Finally, forecasters have many other tasks besides short-term and medium-term weather forecasting, among which short-term and imminent warning service is one of the most important ones. At any time, the weather warning information you see is released by the forecaster.