Why did the typhoon land in China in May 2006?

Today's concern] Why did typhoons strike frequently in 2006 (August 9)

Typhoons "Baoxia" and "Sang Mei" both struck, and a rare "two-station early warning" was issued along the southeast coast of China. How did the double typhoon effect come about? What is the current trend of typhoons? How to deal with it? Why did typhoons strike frequently in 2006? Please watch today's attention later.

Moderator (Wang Shilin):

Hello, audience and friends, welcome to the live broadcast that we are paying attention to today.

Just after Typhoon prapiroon, the No.7 strong tropical storm Maria, No.8 typhoon Sang Mei and No.9 strong tropical storm Baoxia struck one after another this year, forming a rare situation of three typhoons coexisting in the northwest Pacific in recent years. According to the forecast of the meteorological department, "Maria" is expected to land in Japan, which will have little impact on China. The No.9 strong tropical storm "Baoxia" is expected to deflect southwest after landing on Taiwan Province Island, which may have little impact on other provinces in China. However, Typhoon No.8 "Sang Mei" is expected to land in the border area of China, Fujian and Zhejiang from tomorrow afternoon to evening. At present, these two provinces have made full preparations to guard against the adverse effects after the landing of Sang Mei.

On the topic of typhoon, today our studio invited two experts to participate in our discussion: one is Mr. Qian Chuanhai, deputy director of the weather forecasting office of the Central Meteorological Observatory, and hello, Director Qian; Another is Mr Ren Fumin, deputy director of the Climate Diagnosis and Prediction Office of the National Climate Center. Hello, Mr. Ren Fumin. Welcome to our program.

The most direct and fastest influence of "Bao Xia" and "Sang Mei" is Taiwan Province Province. Let's learn about the situation in Taiwan Province Province first, and connect with our reporter Chen.

Moderator:

Hello, Xuan Shi.

Chen (reporter):

Hello, Shilin.

Moderator:

According to relevant media reports, the meteorological department of Taiwan Province Province originally predicted that "Baoxia" and "Sang Mei" will have a Fujiwara effect on the morning of the 8th, that is, they are interrelated. But now it seems that these two typhoons can be said to have moved from one side to the other without any involvement, but "Baoxia" has now landed in Taitung County, Taiwan. What kind of influence has it had now? Please introduce it to us.

Chen:

There are two typhoons this time, which can be said to attack Taiwan Province Province from south to north, which is also a rare phenomenon in the history of Taiwan Province Province. However, "Baoxia" is called "Baoxia" in Chinese mainland and "Baofa" in Taiwan Province Province. The typhoon passed through the south at 7: 20 this morning and went out to sea, so at 1 1 30 in the morning, the local meteorological department announced that it had lifted the typhoon warning in Baoxia, and by 2: 30 in the afternoon, all the typhoon warnings were lifted. At the same time, at 1 1: 30 in the morning, the northern "Sang Mei" issued a land typhoon warning. So far, the biggest threat to Taiwan Province Province is Typhoon Sang Mei, which is approaching Taiwan Province Province step by step, while Typhoon Baoxia passed through Taiwan Province Province last night, and it is an area in the south, so it has little impact and hardly caused much damage, and it is a mild typhoon after all. At present, the whole island is concerned about Typhoon Sang Mei, and it is estimated that it will land in northern Taiwan Province Province in a few hours. Now all parties dare not ignore how much this has affected Taiwan Province Province.

Moderator:

Xuan Shi, you just mentioned that "Sang Mei" is approaching the north and northeast of Taiwan Province Province. What preparations have people in Taiwan Province Province made for the typhoon at present? Tell us again.

Chen:

Because Taiwan Province Province is a typhoon-prone area, it will be hit by many typhoons every July when it arrives at 10. Take this year as an example. At present, it is Typhoon No.9, and at least two thirds of typhoons have affected Taiwan Province Province to some extent. People in Taiwan Province Province are used to typhoons, but there have been many typhoons recently, which have done great harm to Taiwan Province Province. Every time a typhoon comes, people from government departments to the people below dare not neglect it. Every time a typhoon warning is issued on land, the local government department will immediately set up a typhoon forecasting team to deal with all aspects. In Taiwan Province Province, the most harmful thing is debris flow. Since the "9.2 1" earthquake, the ecology of Taiwan Province Province has been destroyed and relatively fragile. When encountering typhoons, especially in mountainous areas, mudslides often occur, leading to landslides. In some low-lying coastal areas, seawater will flow backwards, which is the most worrying injury every time a typhoon comes to Taiwan Province Province, so it is fully prepared every time. Typhoon Sang Mei, after all, is only a moderate typhoon. If it passes through the north and continues northward according to the current path, it will have little impact on Taiwan Province Province unless its route turns to the south. People are basically not too worried about this typhoon.

Moderator:

Thank you very much for the report Xuan Shi gave us in Taiwan Province. However, due to the problem of the alignment of satellite sound and picture, the satellite sound lines are not connected, so the sound and text are not aligned. Here we have to explain, I hope this is not the impact of the typhoon.

Let's go back to the studio and interview two experts. Just now, our reporter introduced the impact of typhoon in Taiwan Province Province, saying that Sang Mei will arrive in the north and northeast of Taiwan Province Province this evening. So, what will be the path of the typhoon next?

Qian Chuanhai (Deputy Director of the Weather Forecasting Office of the Central Meteorological Observatory):

According to the latest data analysis, it is predicted that the No.8 typhoon "Sang Mei" will move to the northwest this year, and it should land from southern Zhejiang to northern Fujian from tomorrow afternoon to night. More specifically, it may land in the coastal area from Wenling, Zhejiang Province to Lianjiang, Fujian Province, but if it speeds up, it may land in this coastal area as early as noon tomorrow.

Moderator:

It may arrive ahead of time, which may be a feature of typhoons. It is expected to take this route, or arrive at this time, but it may be advanced or changed?

Qian Chuanhai:

Yes, its speed may suddenly slow down or speed up, which sometimes happens when it is close to the mainland.

Moderator:

These three typhoons formed in the western Pacific this year, or called strong tropical storms-Maria, Sang Mei and Baoxia, had little impact on us when Maria landed in Japan. Baoxia is expected to deflect southwest after landing in Taiwan Province Province, so we still pay attention to Sang Mei today, because Sang Mei is about to land in Taiwan Province Province and will arrive in Fujian and Zhejiang on the southeast coast of China tomorrow. It was supposed to be from tomorrow afternoon to tomorrow night, but what you just said may be ahead of schedule. Director Ren, what's your opinion?

Ren Fumin (Advanced Project of National Climate Center of China Meteorological Bureau):

CCTV has given this forecast, and typhoon departments in Shanghai, including some coastal provinces, also made similar forecasts at today's meeting. Looking at it now, this prediction is still relatively consistent.

Moderator:

This time, there are three typhoons, and three typhoons exist in the western Pacific. Why is this happening? Is the frequency of two or three typhoons hitting at the same time high?

Ren Fumin:

It is rare in history to see three at the same time. As far as what happened in history is concerned, at most four typhoons appeared at the same time. Because the northwest Pacific Ocean is the region where typhoons live and occur most frequently in the world, and China is also the region where typhoons frequently occur, it is quite normal for three typhoons to appear in the northwest Pacific Ocean.

Moderator:

More normal.

Qian Chuanhai:

1994 There were four typhoons in the northwest Pacific Ocean, almost a series. From east to west, there are four typhoons in a row at a lower latitude, which is even rarer than three typhoons at the same time.

Moderator:

Why did Bao Xia and Sang Mei collide so closely? Is it related to its itinerary?

Qian Chuanhai:

There should be. Their formation is in a relatively small range and relatively close. Let's have a look at the picture. In the first ten days of September, 2000, there were three typhoons in the Pacific Northwest, and there happened to be two typhoons: one named Sang Mei and the other named Baoxia.

Moderator:

This happened six years ago.

Qian Chuanhai:

Yes, it is.

Moderator:

It seems that "Sang Mei" and "Bao Xia" are quite close.

Qian Chuanhai:

They are strangers.

Moderator:

No strangers, always together.

Tomorrow, "Sang Mei" will land at the southeast edge of China and the junction of Fujian and Zhejiang Seas. What is the situation here in Fujian? We are now connected with special correspondent Chen Jie.

Moderator:

Chen Jie, the meteorological forecast department has reported and predicted the news that Sang Mei landed on the coast of Fujian. What measures have all government departments taken now? Please introduce it to us.

Chen Jie (special correspondent):

Hello, Shilin.

I have arrived in Sansha Town, Xiapu County, Fujian Province. The meteorological department said that my place is the place where typhoons may land the most tomorrow afternoon. The weather here is in good condition now. According to the local introduction, the gust has reached 5-6, and the wave is 2-3 meters. Affected by the typhoon, the previous high temperature weather has eased. Now we can see that many citizens have left their homes and come to the street to enjoy the cool on the seawall. The local government departments have made all preparations to defend against the ninth typhoon Sang Mei this year. This is the pier of Sansha. It used to be a very prosperous pier. Usually there are only 1000 ships coming and going, but we can't see a fishing boat anymore. /kloc-more than 0/000 fishing boats have all reached the cliff layer in Xiapu to take shelter from the wind. With the help of local authorities, fishing boats from Taiwan Province Province usually come and go to Xiapu to take shelter from the wind. According to the introduction of local authorities, people in fishing rafts, low-lying areas and dangerous areas have all moved to safety. What we just learned is that it was affected by Typhoon No.6 "Meg". At that time, a natural beach in Sansha was in danger, and more than 200 fishing boats were trapped inside. Up to today, this beach has been completely reinforced and repaired, and more than 200 fishing boats have been properly placed. It should be said that Fujian Province has made all preparations for defending against typhoons No.8 and No.9 this year.

Here's the thing, Shilin.

Moderator:

Ok, thank you very much for Chen Jie's report on the spot.

Moderator:

Now we know something about Fujian. In front of us, it is mainly the influence of "Sang Mei" and the path of "Sang Mei". Speaking of typhoons this year, we found that the number of typhoons this year is relatively large and frequent. What is the impact of typhoons in China this year? Let's get to know it through a short background film.

May 2006 "Pearl"

Typhoon 1 "Pearl" landed in the coastal area from Raoping to Chenghai in Guangdong at 2 am on May 18 this year, which was more than 1 month earlier than the average typhoon occurrence time for many years, which is rare in history.

June 2006 "Jerahua"

The tropical depression "Jielahua" No.2 this year landed at Potou District, Zhanjiang City, Guangdong Province at 7: 40 am on June 29th. When landing, the maximum wind force near the center is 7.

July 2006

This year's No.3 typhoon "Ayunni" landed near Jindo, Jeollanam-do, South Korea. Affected by "Ai Yunni", huge waves were set off along the coast of Qingdao, Shandong Province, and some scenic spots in Qingdao were forced to close.

July 2006 "Billy"

Meteorologists of the No.4 strong tropical storm "Bilis" this year said that it has a strange shape, no unified typhoon center, erratic path and fast and slow moving speed. This strange typhoon killed more than 800 people all over the country, the highest death toll in the past decade.

July 2006 Meg

This year's No.5 typhoon "Meg" caused 7.95 million people in five provinces including Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan and Guangdong to be affected to varying degrees.

August 2006 "Prapiron"

This year's No.6 typhoon "prapiroon" has intensified from an unremarkable tropical depression in the South China Sea to a threatening typhoon. It only took more than a day before and after prapiroon, which has the characteristics of rapid development of intensity, wide influence, heavy wind and rain, and erratic path.

Moderator:

Are there more typhoons this year than in previous years? Is there such a judgment?

Qian Chuanhai:

According to the situation for many years, there are about 28 typhoons in the northwest Pacific every year, and there should be 9 typhoons by the end of July, but there are only 5 typhoons by the end of July this year, 3-4 fewer than the average for many years.

Moderator:

In terms of quantity, it may not be more than in previous years. Why does it give people the impression that typhoons are frequent this year?

Ren Fumin:

A prominent feature of this year is the high proportion of landing typhoons.

Moderator:

That is to say, it has happened before, but it may not affect China, so it may leave?

Ren Fumin:

That's right. So far this year, this is the fifth landing. Sang Mei is likely to land tomorrow, and that will be the sixth one. Compared with the same period of the year, this figure is on the high side, which is a comparison of landing. As I have just introduced, there are not many typhoons generated in the northwest Pacific. July, August and September are the peak periods of typhoons. From now on, July and August all reflect such a feature.

Moderator:

The number generated is small, but there are more typhoons landing. Why are there more typhoons landing this year? What is the reason?

Ren Fumin:

This has a lot to do with the characteristics of atmospheric circulation at that time, because this year's subtropical high is relatively west, and there is a circulation system called subtropical high in the atmosphere over the northwest Pacific Ocean, which is very beneficial for typhoons to affect China or land. This year's situation is such a situation.

Moderator:

Is this the special feature of this year?

Ren Fumin:

Is a major feature of this year. In fact, there are other characteristics this year: the typhoon that landed in China earlier this year, and the typhoon "Pearl" landed on May 8, 1. Compared with history, it landed earlier, more than a month earlier than the average situation in the same period of the year; Looking at the situation of typhoons this year, another outstanding feature is that the disasters caused by typhoons are quite serious.

Moderator:

It just has a big impact.

Ren Fumin:

That's right. Just now, from the short film, we saw that the casualties caused by "Bliss" were more than 800 deaths. From another angle, we can also see its tragic degree, with economic losses reaching nearly 35 billion yuan. Compared with historical typhoons, the impact of a single typhoon has reached the strongest in 10 years in terms of the number of deaths and economic losses.

Moderator:

Throughout this year's typhoons, although the number generated in the Pacific Ocean is small, the number of landings in China is relatively large, which is a feature of this year; Another one is that it came early and came in May. There is also a relatively large impact, resulting in a relatively large loss.

So, how did the typhoon form? Let's get to know it through a short background film.

A tropical cyclone is a tropical storm that occurs on the sunny side of the tropics. It is actually a strong and low pressure area on the tropical ocean, surrounded by violent rotating storms. People often give this tropical cyclone different names wherever it goes. In the north Atlantic, northeast Pacific and south Pacific east of east longitude 160 degrees, it is called hurricane; To the west of international date line, its name became typhoon; In the Indian Ocean, people call it a whirlwind.

The World Meteorological Organization defines and classifies tropical cyclones into four grades according to the maximum average wind force near the center of tropical cyclones. A wind force of less than 8 is a tropical depression, a wind force of 8-9 is a tropical storm, a wind force of10-1is a strong tropical storm, and a wind force of 12 is a typhoon or hurricane.

Typhoon has a beautiful name, but it is often a storm. Does the typhoon only bring disaster to people? When a typhoon strikes, how will we deal with it? "Today's Concern" continues the discussion.

Moderator:

Just now, we learned how typhoons are formed. Director Qian, what conditions does a typhoon need?

Qian Chuanhai:

Generally speaking, there are five conditions for the formation of a typhoon: first, there must be a relatively wide ocean surface. If the sea surface is too small, it is not conducive to its development.

Moderator:

So it was all formed on the ocean?

Qian Chuanhai:

That's right. The second is that the lowest temperature of seawater is 26.5 degrees, and it is generally not easy to form a typhoon if the seawater is too cold; Third, there must be an initial disturbance, that is, there must be an initial cloud, or an initial depression, which will gradually develop into a thermal storm, a strong tropical storm, and a typhoon; Fourth, there should be weak shear, and the risk of typhoon from low level to high level should be consistent, and the inconsistency of risk is not conducive to typhoon generation; The last condition is that it must be close to the equator, which is not conducive to the formation of typhoons in low latitudes, because the wind in low latitudes is not easy to turn. Generally speaking, the most suitable latitude for typhoon generation should be 7-8 degrees, and 7-20 degrees is the area where typhoons are prone to occur.

Moderator:

It seems that the formation of a typhoon really needs certain conditions. We can compare "Sang Mei" and "Bao Xia". What are the characteristics of the intensity, path and formation of these two typhoons?

Ren Fumin:

Comparing Sangmei and Baoxia, the latitude of the origin of Sangmei is relatively low, and that of Baoxia is relatively high, which is about 22.8 degrees north latitude, and that of Sangmei is about 13 and 14 degrees. Why can it happen in areas with higher north latitude? Because the sea temperature in the northern hemisphere is warm this season, in fact, the area of 20 degrees has now reached about 29 degrees, which has exceeded the standard of 26.5 degrees. In the whole western Pacific, it is also an active area of monsoon activity. There is a seasonal trend here, which is just the second condition mentioned just now. There are also some disturbances in these places, so they may also occur at higher latitudes. The two places are obviously different. However, in terms of intensity, Sang Mei has a long path and absorbed a lot of heat supplied by the ocean, so far it has reached the intensity of a typhoon. "Meg" is located in the north because of its short travel route, and its intensity is only the intensity of tropical storms so far. So we can see some differences between them in this respect.

Moderator:

Whether it is "Sang Mei", "Baoxia" or "Maria", we notice that this year's typhoon is called "Pearl", and its names are all very nice. But the name itself is not worthy of the name, and the disaster is very great. Let's learn about typhoon disasters through a background video.

As the most powerful storm in the world, natural disasters such as violent storms, storm surges in coastal areas, seawater intrusion, etc. caused by typhoon landing are often extensive and destructive. The energy released by a hurricane is equivalent to 8,000/kloc-0,000,000 tons of hydrogen bombs. Where typhoons and hurricanes pass, houses are destroyed, roads are flooded, trees are uprooted, and ships are thrown ashore, which often leads to large-scale floods and even serious natural disasters such as tsunamis, landslides, mudslides and landslides.

Moderator:

In addition to these disasters caused by typhoons, it also has a great impact on the climate. For example, there is tornado weather in Foshan, Guangdong, eight In the snow in Shenzhen and sauna weather in Beijing this year. Look at this picture of a tornado. It has a great influence on people's lives and work. Director Qian, how did the weather like tornado and In the snow come into being?

Qian Chuanhai:

In terms of its spatial scale, a tornado may be only ten meters, or one or two kilometers, and in terms of its life span, it may be only a few minutes, ten minutes, or one or two hours. Neither time scale nor space scale can be compared with typhoon, because the scale of typhoon is very large. At present, the forecast of tornado is still a difficult problem, which can only be based on radar detection. If we can see the signs of tornado development in radar detection, we should issue a tornado warning quickly.

Moderator:

How is the snow formed in August?

Ren Fumin:

In reality, the snow in August in Shenzhen this year can be said to be snow, but this phenomenon is different from the snowfall experienced in winter. In meteorology, it has a special name called Yue, which is very rare. Many people don't understand it, so this phenomenon is very strange. This weather phenomenon and tornado are accompanied by strong convective weather, but these two scenes are not particularly common, but after Prapiron landed, these two phenomena appeared at the same time, which is still relatively rare.

Moderator:

Director Qian, considering these climatic phenomena in China this year, can you draw the conclusion that the climate in China is abnormal this year?

Qian Chuanhai:

Let's ask our climate expert to answer this question.

Ren Fumin:

In terms of climate, this year can be said to be quite abnormal. First of all, there may be climate anomalies, depending on the scale. In July, there was a low temperature in the northeast, and it experienced a low temperature in the northeast. In the south and northwest of China, it has experienced a long period of high temperature. People in these two areas have different experiences, and for them, the climate is abnormal. However, from a broader perspective, this is a normal situation, because at any time, in a wide range, there will always be different types of climate anomalies, only in different places, so it is a normal situation. But judging from the abnormal situation this year, typhoon disaster should be regarded as one of them.

Moderator:

Speaking of typhoon disasters, we know that "Bilis" has a great influence on Hunan. The loss of people and property is very large. Here, we also want to express our deep condolences to the people in the disaster areas and wish them to tide over the difficulties in the disaster relief process.

Next, from the meteorological observation, is there a typhoon this year?

Qian Chuanhai:

Generally speaking, according to the statistics of the whole year, August is the active season for typhoons. Every year, there are six typhoons in the Pacific Northwest, two of which will land in China, nearly five typhoons will land in the Pacific Northwest in September, and almost two typhoons will land in China, so the next 20 days, 30 days and September will even be 10.

Moderator:

What is the name of the next typhoon?

Qian Chuanhai:

According to the typhoon naming table, the name of typhoon 10 this year will be Wukong, named after China.

Moderator:

It seems more difficult to deal with. Next, a lot of work needs to be done in dealing with typhoons and disaster relief. Governments at all levels and the public should be prepared for typhoons.

Well, I have to thank two experts for coming to the studio to introduce us to the typhoon. Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, this year's "Today's Concern" program is over. Thank you for watching. See you tomorrow at the same time.