Write a 200-word essay on the topic of future meteorological observation.

In 2007, the temperature in China continued to climb, and the national average temperature reached 65,438 00.6℃, which was 65,438 0.3℃ higher than normal (9.3℃), surpassing the previous highest national average temperature in 2006 and becoming the warmest year in recent 57 years.

Editor's note: The topic of meteorology is "warming up" with the global climate. At present, China is in an important historical period of building a well-off society in an all-round way, and meteorological undertakings are playing an increasingly important role in the overall economic and social development. Meteorological work needs strong support to improve the ability of the whole society to prevent and reduce disasters, ensure the safety of people's lives and property, and respond to the international community's concern about climate change.

This edition pays attention to the meteorology of China under the global climate change, and specially compiles this group of reports to analyze the remarkable achievements and unremitting efforts made by China in actively responding to climate change and strengthening meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation.

In the "year of climate change" in 2007, the average temperature in China was the highest since it reached 195 1. At the same time, extreme weather and climate events such as heavy snow and heavy rain frequently occur, and many meteorological historical records have been refreshed.

The relevant person in charge of the China Meteorological Bureau said that in the context of global warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events have increased significantly, which has brought severe challenges to meteorological work; At the same time, China's rapid economic and social development and building a well-off society in an all-round way put forward higher requirements for meteorological services. How to forecast the weather and climate more accurately? How to provide more detailed meteorological services for Beijing Olympic Games? How do meteorological early warning information and knowledge "enter the village and enter the household"? In 2008, these three difficulties need the joint efforts of meteorologists in China.

Do everything possible to improve the accuracy of forecasting and strengthen the study of extreme weather and climate events.

A prominent feature of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation in China in 2007 is that there are many disasters but little losses. The number of deaths due to meteorological disasters nationwide decreased by 567 compared with the previous year; According to the statistics of meteorological department, there were 8 typhoons that landed in China in 2007, which was more than the average of the previous years 1. However, this severe typhoon disaster only caused 76 deaths, which was the least year since the founding of New China. The direct economic losses caused by meteorological disasters are the least since 199 1.

"This is due to the attention and concern of the leaders of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, the careful organization and evacuation of various localities and departments, and the engineering investment in disaster prevention and mitigation in recent years." Yu Xinwen, director of the China Meteorological Bureau Office and spokesperson, said, "The meteorological department has also played its due role, providing a scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation."

In 2007, relying on scientific and technological progress, the meteorological department insisted on improving the accuracy of meteorological forecasting in the first place, and strived to achieve "no relaxation all year round, no weather process spared" and tried every means to improve the accuracy and refinement of forecasting. In 2007, the accuracy of 24-hour sunny rain forecast and rainstorm forecast in China increased by 2. 1% and 1.9% respectively compared with that in 2006, and the typhoon track forecast by the Central Meteorological Observatory reached the highest level in previous years.

"However, overall, the level of weather and climate monitoring and forecasting in China is still not high." Zheng Guoguang, director of the China Meteorological Bureau, pointed out that the meteorological monitoring ability does not meet the needs of forecasting and service, and some local disastrous weather is often not captured because of the insufficient density of monitoring stations, so that it is underreported; There is no very effective method for the objective forecast of some disastrous weather, and the understanding of the formation mechanism of some important weather and climate events is still very limited, especially the ability of early warning and forecasting of short-term and imminent disastrous weather is still very weak.

It is reported that in 2008, the meteorological department will continue to do everything possible to improve the forecast accuracy. As the foundation and top priority of its career, it will systematically promote the development of numerical forecasting, improve the observation system, and promote scientific and technological innovation: vigorously develop meteorological forecasting business, formulate the development plan of numerical forecasting business, realize the commercialization of T639 numerical forecasting system independently developed by China, improve the numerical forecasting of mesoscale precipitation in China, improve the numerical forecasting ability of typhoons, and establish national sudden and disastrous weather as soon as possible. Scientific development of comprehensive meteorological observation services; Promote the construction of national meteorological science and technology innovation system and talent system.

In addition, the China Meteorological Bureau will set up a climate change center to form a joint research force on climate change, further strengthen the research on the frequency, intensity, spatial distribution characteristics and changing laws of extreme weather and climate events, and better cope with the new challenges brought by global warming.

Give full play to the role of the national meteorological department in providing high-quality meteorological services for the Beijing Olympic Games.

From August 8 to August 24, the Olympic Games will be held in Beijing. It's the rainy season in Beijing, and the weather is complicated and changeable.

"The meteorological service of Beijing Olympic Games is characterized by six words-high demand and high difficulty." Wu, a researcher of Beijing Meteorological Bureau and consultant of Beijing Municipal Government Expert Advisory Group, said that according to the requirements of the International Olympic Committee, the meteorological support for the Olympic Games must provide continuous rolling weather forecast every few hours, specific to the venues. There are more severe weather such as thunderstorms in flood season in Beijing. According to the meteorological data of previous years, there is precipitation every two or three days. Compared with the host cities of the last four Olympic Games, Beijing has the most total precipitation and the most days of precipitation during the Olympic Games.

Whether the Beijing Olympic Games can be a "distinctive and high-level" grand event, the "demanding and difficult" meteorological support service plays a decisive role. In recent years, China Meteorological Bureau has made action plans and implementation plans, taken measures to solve scientific and technological problems related to Olympic meteorological services, infrastructure construction and event services, and made every effort to prepare for Olympic meteorological services. In 2006 and 2007, the national meteorological department carried out the Olympic meteorological service drills for two consecutive years.

"Hosting a successful Olympic Games requires strong meteorological science and technology support. With the help of the national meteorological department, we will fully provide meteorological services for the Olympic Games and Paralympic Games." Zheng Guoguang said that the meteorological department will strengthen the analysis of climate background to provide scientific basis for improving the Olympic organization and emergency support plan. Strengthen the monitoring and forecasting of high temperature, high humidity, rainstorm, thunder and lightning, hail, strong wind, typhoon, fog and haze, and focus on the short-term and medium-term approaching forecast of the opening and closing ceremonies of the Olympic Games and the artificial cloud-removing and rain-reducing experiments to ensure the successful completion of the Everest Olympic flame display, Olympic torch relay and meteorological support services for various Olympic events. Do a good job in early warning and release of sudden meteorological disasters and public meteorological services for the Olympic Games, and provide refined meteorological services for all Olympic activities, all Olympic participants and all citizens.

"We can never get rid of the uncertainty of prediction, but we can try to reduce the uncertainty." Wang Jianjie, deputy director of the Beijing Meteorological Bureau, said, "During the Olympic Games, let users get scientific, useful and easy-to-understand meteorological information at the first time-I believe we can do this."

Broaden distribution channels, strengthen popular science propaganda, and let meteorological early warning cross the "last mile"

In recent years, the meteorological department has made efforts to solve the problem that the "last mile" of meteorological early warning information is not smooth. In 2007, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued 75 early warnings, and meteorological departments of provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) issued 3350 early warning signals, with 69 1 time. The public made tens of billions of information calls, and1200 million people received early warning messages. There are 73,000 electronic display screens for meteorological early warning information in China, and marine meteorological early warning stations are established to promote the construction of modern information publishing platforms such as a new generation of meteorological early warning information satellite broadcasting system, mobile phone short message early warning community broadcasting system and rural cable broadcasting front-end receiver.

However, China's meteorological disaster forecasting and early warning information still has obvious shortcomings in terms of release channels, release timeliness and coverage.

According to the person in charge of China Meteorological Bureau, this year, we will accelerate the development of public meteorological services, build a national public emergency early warning information release system, comprehensively promote the construction of provincial mobile meteorological stations and severe weather live broadcast systems, accelerate the construction of satellite digital voice broadcasting system and mobile phone community broadcasting release system for meteorological early warning information, and complete the establishment of the public meteorological service center of China Meteorological Administration.

In addition, in view of the insufficient publicity and popularization of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation knowledge, especially for rural farmers, and the imperfect group prevention and control mechanism, the meteorological department will strengthen popular science propaganda, speed up the establishment of meteorological early warning information officers and volunteers, promote the construction of meteorological popular science bases and popular science education for primary and secondary schools and the public, establish China meteorological popular science network, and continue to cooperate with education, science and technology, construction, railways, agriculture and other departments to promote the popularization of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation and climate change knowledge in rural areas.

"Only when meteorological warning information and popular science knowledge enter the village at the same time can meteorological warning break through the' last mile' bottleneck and reach users within an effective time, so that users can take scientific and effective countermeasures in time." Jiao Meiyan, director and spokesperson of the Forecasting and Disaster Reduction Department of China Meteorological Bureau, said, "This will play a vital role in disaster prevention and reduction."