One-month weather forecast in Haicheng

China is located in the eastern part of Eurasia, at the junction of the Pacific Rim seismic belt and the Eurasian seismic belt. Earthquakes are quite frequent in history. Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the famous earthquakes are Tangshan earthquake, Wenchuan earthquake and Ya 'an earthquake. May 18 (today) is the anniversary of Wenchuan earthquake 10. 12 may 10 years ago, an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 occurred in Wenchuan, causing great losses to people's lives and property. Therefore, May 12 also became China Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Day.

We commemorate this day, not only to remember the dead, but also to pray that the disaster will not repeat itself. With the further development of China's economy, the economic and social risks of earthquakes are also increasing. In addition to establishing and improving the disaster prevention, mitigation and relief system, many people may ask: Now that science and technology are so developed, can't earthquakes be predicted? When a powerful earthquake comes, if people can be evacuated in time as predicted by the weather forecast, wouldn't it greatly reduce casualties and property losses?

In fact, although people have been tracking earthquakes for hundreds of years, at present, earthquake prediction is still a difficult problem in the scientific community. The research on earthquake prediction in China originated from 1966 Xingtai earthquake, and the country began to explore earthquake prediction. China has conducted research for many years, and the only recognized "successful" earthquake prediction is the Haicheng earthquake in Liaoning.

1975 On February 4th, Beijing time 19: 36, a strong earthquake measuring 7.3 on the Richter scale occurred in Haicheng and Yingkou counties of Liaoning Province. Before the earthquake, scientists in China carried out a series of monitoring on the earthquake, and made predictions when the earthquake approached. After the imminent earthquake forecast was released on the morning of February 4, the factory stopped working, the assembly was cancelled and the rescue team stood by. According to the local population density and the average casualty rate of Xingtai and Tangshan earthquakes, if there is no defense, the earthquake may cause more than 50 thousand deaths. However, the actual death toll in the Haicheng earthquake exceeded 1300, with casualties of *** 18308, accounting for only 0.22% of the total population.

Although this was a gratifying success, under the backward observation conditions and scientific instruments at that time, the prediction methods of China scientists for earthquakes were actually very common: First, by looking at the anomalies of groundwater and animals, at the same time, before the Haicheng earthquake, there were intensive small earthquakes similar to Xingtai earthquake at the junction of Yingkou and Haicheng counties, and only after confirming multiple characteristics did China scientists give the imminent earthquake prediction. But in fact, the prediction of Haicheng earthquake is the only example that claims success. These decades of exploration can only be said to be the accident of empirical prediction.

In fact, at present, we can't accurately predict earthquakes, and earthquake prediction is very difficult. The existing earthquake prediction research is mostly based on various anomalies, such as animal anomalies, water level, geomagnetic deformation, groundwater chemical changes and so on. In addition, there are predictions based on various precursor reactions, which are actually based on statistics and experience. Not to mention the correlation between these numerous anomalies and earthquakes, the uncertainty of this prediction is also very high.

A big problem that earthquake prediction can't solve at present is that it can't determine the specific time, place and intensity, which is completely different from weather prediction. If it is predicted blindly, the earthquake will not come after the evacuation of local residents, which will not only affect social production and life, but also induce social unrest. The consequences are as serious as the earthquake itself.

At present, people can't predict earthquakes, so don't deify the "success" of Haicheng earthquake, because there is luck. In the same era, the Songpan earthquake, Haicheng earthquake and Tangshan earthquake had different endings, which is enough to explain the problem. Therefore, in the face of all kinds of "earthquake prediction" in the network age, there is basically no need to believe that arguments such as "earthquake clouds" are even more nonsense and will only bring panic to the lives of ordinary people. At present, China has built an earthquake early warning and monitoring network of 2.2 million square kilometers, making China the third country with earthquake early warning capability after Japan and Mexico, that is, it can give an alarm within a few seconds before the earthquake wave arrives, so that people can find shelter quickly.

Now our testing equipment is all over the country, and the technology is developing rapidly. I believe that one day, we can make timely and accurate predictions before the earthquake, so as to prevent such disasters. But before that, it is the right way to master the knowledge of earthquake emergency and tighten the string of disaster prevention for residents in earthquake areas.