A paper on economic development

The fluctuation of the whole economy is the final result of the interaction of all shocks in the economy. Choosing a feasible economic development strategy is of great significance to the economic development of developing countries and regions. The following is a model essay on economic development that I compiled for you. Welcome to read the reference!

Econometric analysis of China's macroeconomic development.

First, two characteristics of China's economic development

At present, there are two main trends in China's economic development:

First, the external environment of China's economy is in the stage of continuous global structural adjustment after the crisis.

With the rapid development of economic globalization and informatization, a new round of industrial restructuring is in full swing around the world. This is a strategic choice for countries to adapt to the digital economy and meet the arrival of the information age. The whole global adjustment focuses on accelerating the development of high-tech with information technology as the core, promoting the upgrading of industrial structure, slowly shifting the focus from the secondary industry to the tertiary industry, and focusing on developing technology-intensive and information-intensive service industries to adapt to? New economy? The demand of the times for knowledge-based service industry.

Judging from the current situation, the wide application of information technology has driven a number of related industries, spawned a series of marginal industries, transformed traditional industries and promoted? Old and new? Industrial integration. The information industry will continue to play a key role in the global industrial restructuring. However, at present, the pace of high-tech industrialization such as life science, biotechnology and nanotechnology is growing rapidly, which will have an impact on the future global industrial restructuring. Judging from the development status of countries at this stage, the United States is far ahead in developing high-tech industries such as information industry, followed by countries such as Northern Europe, Canada, Australia and East Asia, and the European Union and Japan are catching up from the backward state. 2/kloc-0 At the beginning of the century, the pace of global industrial restructuring will continue to accelerate and the competition will become more and more fierce. At present, the global economic structure is in a period of adjustment, economic growth will definitely slow down, and even a serious economic crisis (such as the previous European debt crisis) will occur. Under the background of globalization, China's economic development is bound to be affected by the global economic situation.

Second, the internal factors of China's economic development determine that the economic growth rate will gradually slow down in the future.

The economic system established in the long-term development of China is government-led and export-oriented. Under this economic system, on the one hand, the government invests a lot of money to build infrastructure to stimulate economic growth, which may cause a lot of overcapacity and waste the limited social resources at present. On the other hand, due to the current resource price reform and rising wage costs, the competitive advantage of China's export industry has obviously weakened, and the real estate, which has always been one of the pillars of China's economy, has a bubble trend. Therefore, from the current situation, China's economy is in a platform from the past high growth to relatively slow growth.

At the same time, China's actual economic operation is also a period of accumulation of a large number of historical problems, such as excessive currency, rising prices and a large number of cyclical and structural contradictions. For example, under the current price pressure, there are some reform measures in structural transformation, such as the transfer of trade sectors to non-trade sectors, rising wages and rising resource prices. At present, prices are rising moderately, which happens to be influenced by the two easing policies of the United States and the excessive release of local currency in China in recent two years. Therefore, the government implements price control and the currency is slightly tight, so the economic growth rate will decline.

Second, the historical review of GDP

Judging from the current year-on-year GDP growth rate in China, the GDP growth rate in China decreased to 8. 1% in the first quarter of 20 13, and the GDP growth rate in China in the first quarter is generally expected to be 8.4% or 8.5%. Since 20 12, China's GDP growth rate has been in a state of decline, and the GDP growth rate in the four quarters of 20 12 was 9.7%, 9.5%, 9. 1% and 8.9% respectively. China's GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 20 13 was the lowest in the last three years. At the same time, it is also a rare time in recent ten years when the GDP growth rate is lower than 8. 1% (including 8. 1%). As far as the current situation is concerned, the downward trend of China's GDP growth rate will continue. Next, let's analyze the reasons for the continuous decline of GDP growth rate in China.

Based on the annual statistics of China, the statistical value of gross national product is nominal GDP, and the comparison between the previous data and the current data is not an order of magnitude, so this paper uses the growth rate of GDP to describe the change of GDP in China, as shown in figure 1.

It can be seen from the observation chart 1 that the GDP growth rate has experienced a rapid development process from large fluctuation to gradual stability since the founding of the People's Republic of China, which also shows that China's economic construction has made great progress at present. From the founding of New China to the early 1990s, the national economy has been running at a high speed, accompanied by traditional high energy consumption, high material consumption, high pollution and high inflation. Four heights? Problems have laid a hidden danger for the later development of the national economy. This unstable high-speed growth will generally break all kinds of equilibrium links needed for the normal operation of the circular economy, which will lead to a sharp decline in the economic growth rate in the later stage of in-depth development. Therefore, it is particularly important to maintain the steady growth of GDP.

Third, the growth of potential GDP.

The author made a survey of 1992 in China by consulting the materials? Based on the GDP data of 20 12 quarter, the filtered trend growth rate, namely the potential GDP growth rate, is obtained according to the HP trend filtering method (see Figure 2).

As can be seen from Figure 2, the potential GDP growth rate has experienced a process of steady growth, stabilization and then a slight decline at this stage. Since 2000, China's filtered trend growth rate is roughly in the range of 8%~ 10%, which belongs to a stable and high-speed growth state. At present, the most suitable bottom line of economic growth rate in China's economic development stage should be 8%. If the economic growth rate is lower than 8%, the production problems and employment problems of enterprises will be highlighted, especially the employment problems. Due to the slowdown of economic growth, the production of enterprises is restricted, the overall employment demand of society will decrease, and the number of jobs will decrease, which will cause serious employment problems. In other words, if the employment problem is prominent and some unemployed people cannot guarantee basic food and shelter, it will intensify social contradictions and affect social harmony. At the same time, due to the current situation of overcapacity in China, the reduction of economic growth will affect the whole production, and the most serious thing may be the negative growth of national fiscal revenue.

In addition, as an emerging economy, the fluctuation at the top of the potential GDP growth rate curve will be significantly greater than the change at the bottom. On the whole, under the influence of Zeng Ce, the economy oscillates upward and it is more likely to break out of the stable range. More attention should be paid to the possibility that the macro economy is running too fast or overheating is unsustainable, as shown in table 1. At present, in the process of the slow downward movement of the potential economic growth rate, it is conditional to realize the steady downward movement of the potential economic growth rate.

Since the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States in 2008, China's macro-control focus has undergone four adjustments. At present, in order to reverse the downward trend of the economy and promote the recovery of the economic situation, what are the key points? Keep growing? Mainly. Under the global financial crisis, China adopted a proactive fiscal policy and a loose monetary policy, and implemented a series of plans to stimulate economic recovery, until the price increase climbed to the peak of 6.5% in July of 20 1 1 year. During this period, what is the economic trend of China? v？ Form a good economic situation of returning to normal.

In this context, after a series of measures to stabilize prices were introduced, the CPI index dropped month by month to 4.1.01.01.02. With the decline of price increase, the economic growth rate of 20 1 1 year dropped to 9.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous year. The price increase of 20 12 continued to fall, falling to 3% in May, leaving some room for preventing the economic growth from falling too fast and moderately loosening and fine-tuning macro-control. By May of 20 12, the key points of macro-control were put forward under the circumstances that economic indicators such as industrial production, investment in fixed assets, and import and export growth dropped significantly. Put steady growth in a more important position? . As a result, a series of related measures were introduced to expand domestic demand, promote consumption, encourage investment and promote? Twelfth Five-Year Plan? Implement planned projects, structural tax cuts, lower the deposit reserve ratio, and lower the deposit and loan interest rates. With 2008? 20 10? A package? Compared with the stimulus plan, the stimulus this time is not so great. In the second half of the year, the economic growth rate entered a slight recovery channel.

Judging from the fluctuation of annual economic growth rate, a new economic cycle (cycle 1 1) began in 20 10. By the end of 20 13, this cycle has lasted for three years. The economic growth rates in 20 10 and 201year are 10.4% and 9.2% respectively, and it is predicted to be 8.5% in 20 12. Will this cycle not come out like the ninth cycle? 2+7? Cycle, that is, 2-year rising period plus 7-year steady falling period; Nor will it go out like the 10 cycle? 8+2? Period. This cycle is likely to go out of a new trajectory, that is, a zigzag slow-rising and slow-falling trajectory.

Fourth, PMI analysis

At present, more than 20 countries around the world have established PMI comprehensive economic indicators detection system, and the world manufacturing PMI system and service PMI system have also been established. At present, PMI system is divided into service PMI, construction PMI and manufacturing PMI. It is a comprehensive economic indicator testing system, which is published once a month.

PMI is usually used as a leading indicator to predict macroeconomic trends. Under normal circumstances, if the PMI index is lower than 53.0 for three consecutive months, the tested economy is likely to enter the down cycle; If the PMI index is higher than 53.0 for three consecutive months, then the tested economy is likely to enter an upward cycle. Because the PMI detection system has a certain forerunner, when it enters the expansion range from the contraction state, the real economy may still fall back, and when the PMI index stably enters the obvious expansion range (>: 53.0), the economy begins to return to the upward trend. According to the above theoretical circles, as shown in Figure 3, it can be directly observed that the PMI index in other periods is lower than the standard of 53.0 except for a slight rebound in February and April of 20 13. It is verified that the domestic annual economic growth rate is sluggish.

Looking at Figure 4, that is, the manufacturing PMI index of finished products and raw materials, we can see that from 2005 to now, China's macro-economy has experienced a fluctuating process of rising, falling, rising and falling again. Since 2006? In 2007, the raw material PMI was higher than the finished product PMI, and then the average level of finished product inventory decreased, which means that the economy is picking up. Stimulated by the increase in market demand, the inventory of raw materials in upstream purchasing enterprises increased and the inventory of finished products decreased. After June 2008, affected by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the economic situation was sluggish, and the PMI of raw materials dropped significantly, resulting in a significant increase in the inventory PMI of finished products. After the 4 trillion expansionary fiscal plan stimulated the economic recovery, by May of 20 1 1 year, the economic situation turned around again, and the PMI of material inventory was always lower than the average level of finished goods inventory. It can be seen that the economic recovery will take some time, and the short-term national economy will still be in the process of slow decline in the future.

Verb (abbreviation of verb) conclusion

The Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee released a strong signal of reform, and now it has entered a critical stage of China's economic transformation. It will be the main theme of China's economy in the next decade to make full use of market forces to promote financial marketization reform and further promote economic system reform. According to the Opinions on Financial Support for the Construction of China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone (hereinafter referred to as "Opinions") promulgated by the central bank, it fully reflects the Chinese government's emphasis on financial marketization. In the past, the banking system played a decisive role in China's financial system by absorbing deposits and issuing loans. Due to the dominant position of the banking system, financial regulators control banks and the overall risks of macro-finance in China. With the emergence of internet finance and asset securitization, the position of banks in financial activities is constantly challenged. The expenditure in the Opinions will vigorously promote the marketization of interest rates and fully release market activity. The decrease in loan interest rate and the decrease in spread caused by the increase in deposit interest rate will promote more and more small and medium-sized enterprises to engage in corresponding business activities through low-cost financing, and the corresponding residents can get more deposit interest to avoid inflation devouring their purchasing power, thus stimulating domestic demand and further promoting the steady rise of the macro economy.

At present, affected by the European debt crisis and the weak American economy, the global economy is at a highly uncertain crossroads. All countries are adjusting their development models and seeking new advantages. Developed countries have been hit hard by their own financial systems, trying to restore economic growth by expanding investment and exports and revitalizing manufacturing.

After the export-led growth model was blocked, emerging market countries represented by China tried to further develop their economies by expanding domestic demand and opening up new growth points while stabilizing the external demand market. In the next decade, China's economy will enter the next short economic cycle. The economy will slow down in the short term, but the long-term trend should be a tortuous slow-rising and slow-falling trajectory.

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China's economic development under smog.

Abstract: Smog weather frequently harms people's health and affects the pace of economic development in China. The frequent occurrence of smog weather has given us a great warning, especially prompting us to think about the relationship between smog control and economic development. Behind the rapid economic development in China is the worsening ecological environment in China, so the economic development in China under the smog has become a research hotspot. This paper analyzes the influence of smog weather on economic development, and advances some countermeasures for China's economic development under smog.

Keywords: haze weather; China's economic development

First, the influence of smog weather on economic development.

(1) The negative impact of haze weather.

Hazy weather has a direct or indirect impact on the economy of all industries. The following is a brief analysis of the impact of smog weather on economic development: ① the impact on tourism. The appearance of smog weather will make urban tourism fall into a dilemma, and the appearance of smog will have a great negative impact on tourism quality, thus affecting the number of tourists; (2) In the physical industry, the occurrence of smog weather prompted the government to strengthen the supervision of the physical industry, especially the chemical industry to stop work and rectify, which had a fatal impact on chemical enterprises and even led to the loss and bankruptcy of chemical enterprises; (3) For the development of transportation industry, the smog weather has affected the normal operation of logistics to a certain extent, and even caused temporary market confusion because of the price increase.

(2) The positive impact of smog weather.

The occurrence of haze weather will also have a positive impact on economic development. For example, smog weather promotes the development of environmental protection enterprises. The occurrence of haze weather makes people realize the disadvantages of traditional energy, thus turning to the concern of environmental protection energy, especially the increasing demand for solar air conditioners, electric vehicles and other products. The frequent occurrence of smog weather urges the country to improve the quality standards of oil products, which provides free market share for electric energy and solar energy and helps them enhance their market competitiveness. In addition, it has a positive impact on the development of pharmaceutical industry. Hazy weather stimulated the sales of masks, air purifiers and PM2.5 monitoring equipment.

Second, the development countermeasures of China's economy under smog

Smog weather control should be based on economic development and realize the transformation of development mode on the basis of unshakable economic development. This is the best policy to deal with smog weather control.

(1) Transform the mode of economic development.

In the process of economic development, we should gradually change the development mode, from the development process of high energy consumption and high pollution to the development path of high efficiency and low energy consumption, and at the same time continuously reduce the economic proportion of the secondary industry, increase the economic contribution of the tertiary industry, and realize the transformation of the economic development mode on the premise of maintaining the economic growth rate and economic aggregate without obvious decline. In addition, it is necessary to control the discharge of industrial pollutants, close and rectify enterprises with high energy consumption and high pollution, and improve the transformation of production methods in such industries, improve the utilization efficiency of resources and reduce pollution emissions. What's more, we have to eliminate the backward? Sunset industry? Reduce the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, maintain the stability of the earth's weather, and reduce the probability of smog caused by natural causes.

(2) Adhere to the new industrialization route.

The first breakthrough point of smog weather control is industrial production. Traditional industrial production only pays attention to the improvement of production efficiency and ignores the impact on the environment, which is the limitation of traditional industrial production and restricts the sustainable development of industrialization. Therefore, we must establish the concept of sustainable development, adhere to the new industrialization route, pay equal attention to industrial production and environmental protection, carry out technological innovation and process optimization in the pollution link in industrial production, and reduce pollutant emissions. At the same time, enterprises should accelerate the transformation of energy structure, improve industrial technology, upgrade air pollution control technology, establish a sound production monitoring system, evaluate the environmental protection prospects of industrial production, and ensure the transformation of industrial development mode.

(3) Take the road of environment-friendly and resource-saving city development.

To deal with the relationship between environmental protection and economic development, we need to take the road of environmental-friendly and resource-saving urban development, comprehensively improve the ecological environment construction mechanism, and build scientific development concepts and strategies. At present, there are many problems in China's urbanization development, such as high energy consumption in winter, high industrial pollution and concentrated urban agglomeration construction, which restrict the development of new cities and form the phenomenon that pollution is concentrated in a narrow area, thus forming regional haze weather. Therefore, in the process of urbanization, we should combine the ecological environment construction with the energy optimization strategy, take the environment-friendly city as the construction purpose, and leave green mountains and rivers for future generations on the basis of ensuring our own resource demand. At the same time, we should regard eco-environmental friendliness as the key to development, start the environmental protection plan, and speed up the control of energy consumption intensity and total amount. We should not let the smog weather drift with the tide because of the pursuit of taxes and finance. In addition, it is necessary to carry out scientific and technological innovation, strengthen the concept of urban green consumption, and form a development situation of environmental friendliness, people living and working in peace and contentment, vigorous economic development and rational utilization of resources.

(4) Develop a low-carbon economy.

Smog control has brought opportunities for economic transformation and economic optimization. Making full use of the smog control strategy can realize the overall economic transformation and form a development model of low-carbon economy in the whole society. At the same time, it is necessary to introduce relevant environmental protection laws and attach importance to the protection of air, water and land resources. On the basis of coordinated economic development, the British government should actively promote low-carbon economy, strengthen the utilization efficiency of resources in industrial production, improve the utilization efficiency of waste gas and heat, and reduce the damage to the ecological environment. At the same time, a perfect low-carbon economy implementation mechanism should be established to force some enterprises that fail to achieve low-carbon production and low-carbon emission to suspend business for rectification. Secondly, we should vigorously publicize the concept of low-carbon economy, enhance people's environmental protection concept, strengthen policy and financial support for low-carbon enterprises, and encourage research and development of low-carbon products, such as encouraging residents to use solar water heaters and switch to energy-saving light bulbs, and encouraging citizens to choose public transportation.

Third, the conclusion

In short, smog weather affects economic development, so we must balance the environment and economy, actively realize the transformation of economic development mode, take a new road of industrialization, and explore new ways of economic development in smog control.

References:

Wang Xuguang. Research on Smog Control and Economic Development [J]. Economic Perspective, 20 13(8).

[2], Sun,. Reflections on the causes of smog in China and its control [J]. Science Bulletin, 2013,58 (13).

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