Market comments: The operation becomes more difficult, reduce positions on rallies

Key Recommendations

In July, the CPI turned from falling to rising. Experts predict that short-term disturbances will not change the stable trend

Many places have introduced ticket reduction and exemption policies to resume inter-provincial and peripheral travel to 90% last year

Market Comments

Market Comments: The operation becomes more difficult, reduce positions on highs

New energy vehicle industry: Encourage cities with purchase restrictions to increase the number of cars appropriately Purchase limit

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Futures Information

Metal energy: gold 444.72, down 0.38%; copper 50740, up 0.85%; rebar 3835, up 0.37%; rubber 12435, down 0.16%; PVC index 6495, down 0.15 %; Zheng Chun 1726, up 0.23%; Shanghai Aluminum 14290, down 1.11%; Shanghai Nickel 113650, down 0.10%; Iron Ore 841, up 3.19%; Coke 2029.5, down 1.38%; Coking Coal 1207, down 0.45%; Bren Special oil 44.96, up 1.26%; Glass 1942, up 3.91%; LPG 3937, down 0.40%; Rubber sheet 238.85, up 1.11%; Soda ash 1517, up 0.33%; PP 7616, up 0.51%;

Agricultural products: soybean oil 6250, up 0.97%; corn 2230, up 0.36%; palm oil 5904, up 1.1%; Zheng cotton 12155, down 0.53%; Zheng wheat 2560, up 0.23%; sugar 5067, down 0.24%; apple 7186 , up 4.28%; red dates 9300, up 4.79%; beans 4713, down 0.15%; rapeseed 5921, down 0.84%;

Exchange rate: EUR/USD 1.1737, down 0.42%; USD/RMB 6.9608 , down 0.09%; USD/HKD 7.7502, down 0.00%.

(The above futures data come from the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange, and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange)

Key recommendations

1. The CPI in July was by Experts predict that short-term disturbances will not change the stable trend

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 10th showed that in July, national consumer prices rose by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month. Many industry experts believe that the CPI has turned from a month-on-month decrease to an increase, and the year-on-year increase has slightly expanded, but it will not change the overall trend of stable price operation in the second half of the year. From a structural point of view, rising food prices are still the main factor leading to the rebound in CPI year-on-year growth this month.

On a month-on-month basis, CPI increased by 0.6% from a decrease of 0.1% in the previous month. Among them, food prices rose by 2.8%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI increase by about 0.62 percentage points. Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician at the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in food, as catering services gradually resumed, the demand for pork consumption continued to increase, while floods in many places had a certain impact on the transportation of live pigs, and the supply was still tight, with pork prices rising by 10.3%. %, an increase of 6.7 percentage points from the previous month; affected by adverse weather, the price of fresh vegetables increased by 6.3%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points; due to the reduction in the number of laying hens, the egg production rate has declined in summer, and egg prices have increased for nine consecutive months. After falling, it turned positive, rising 4.0%.

"Price growth is generally declining, and there is no basis for long-term inflation or deflation. Preliminary estimates are that the average growth rate throughout the year will be within a reasonable range." This is stated in the "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report" recently released by the central bank. research and judgment.

The report believes that since the second quarter, the prices of various commodities have rebounded in varying degrees. The month-on-month increase in PPI has turned positive and the year-on-year decrease has narrowed, which also reflects the recovery in demand. The recent floods in some provinces may have some impact on the production and transportation of agricultural products. The rapid increase in money supply in developed economies may push up commodity prices in the future. In addition, there is still uncertainty about the impact of the evolution of the global epidemic and prevention and control measures on the supply chain and industrial chain. , it is still necessary to pay close attention to short-term price disturbances that may be caused by various factors.

The report stated that in the medium and long term, my country's economic operation is generally stable, total supply and demand are basically balanced, supply-side structural reform is deeply advanced, the role of market mechanisms is better exerted, monetary policy remains stable, and monetary conditions are reasonable and appropriate. , there is no basis for long-term inflation or deflation.

Comment: Food prices rose by 2.8% in July, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI increase by approximately 0.62 percentage points, and was the main factor leading to the year-on-year increase in CPI that month. Floods occurred in many places in my country in July, which affected the transportation of pigs and was also an important reason for the rise in food prices. As the impact of the epidemic and flood conditions on the transportation of agricultural products weakens, it is expected that food prices will remain stable in the future.

This news has a neutral impact on the market.

(Investment consultant? Cai Jin? Registered investment consultant certificate number: S0260611090020)

2. Many places have introduced ticket reduction and exemption policies, and inter-provincial and peripheral travel has recovered to 90% of last year

Qunar.com data shows that judging from the recovery situation in the first week of August this year, the number of reservations for scenic spots across the country has increased significantly compared with the previous two months. Since July 15, when tourist attractions nationwide were relaxed to 50% capacity, the growth has been even more rapid. Qunar.com data shows that since the resumption of “inter-provincial travel”, demand for various tourism products has increased accordingly. Among them, inter-provincial and peripheral tourism has returned to 90% of the level of the same period last year, becoming the most popular tourism product this summer.

Comments: The gradual recovery of domestic tourism is expected to benefit domestic tourist attractions and tourism hotel companies. It is expected that related concept stocks will have opportunities to perform in the future. You can participate in an appropriate amount when the stock price fluctuates. It is not recommended to pursue rising operation.

(Investment Consultant? Cai Jin? Registered Investment Consultant Certificate No.: S0260611090020)

Market Comments

1. Market Comments: The operation becomes more difficult, and rallies will Reduce positions

On Monday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened lower and then closed higher. The market trading volume was reduced compared with last Friday. The two cities’ total turnover was 1.1576 billion yuan. Specifically, the Shanghai Stock Index closed up 0.75% to close at 3379.25 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.06% to close at 13657.3 points; the GEM Index fell 0.53% to close at 2735.26 points.

From a disk perspective, sectors such as household products, railway infrastructure, building materials and insurance performed strongly, while non-ferrous sectors, biological vaccine stocks and consumer electronics stocks performed relatively weakly. High-level theme sectors have begun to experience intensified fluctuations, and there are signs of loosening chips. Market hot money has chosen to attack low-level sectors such as railway infrastructure, showing that the risk appetite of funds is decreasing. Judging from the trend, the Shanghai Composite Index closed on the 5-day line, but the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index did not follow suit. It is expected that in the next volatile market, the Shanghai Composite Index will be slightly stronger than the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index.

In terms of operation, the index closed higher led by financial stocks, but the trading sentiment of individual stocks decreased, and the market entered a stage of relatively difficult operations. It is recommended to appropriately reduce positions on rallies and avoid stagflation at high levels. theme stocks. In terms of opportunities, it is recommended to pay attention to cyclical stocks with low valuations and expected price increases, military concept stocks with a need to make up for increases, rare earth permanent magnet concept stocks with defensive properties, and agricultural stocks.

(Investment consultant Yang Dong? Registered investment consultant certificate number: S0260615080007)

2. New energy automobile industry: Encourage cities with purchase restrictions to appropriately increase car purchase limits

Industry news: 1) National Development and Reform Commission: In the second half of the year, cities with purchase restrictions are encouraged to appropriately increase car purchase limits and relax purchase restrictions on new energy vehicles; 2) Ministry of Transport: Promote the "new infrastructure" of transportation and achieve remarkable results in 2035; 3) Ministry of Transport: Support the use of new energy vehicles Energy vehicles carry out leasing of small and micro buses; 4) Yunnan plans to build 40,000 charging piles by 2022, and the production capacity of new energy vehicles will exceed 100,000; 5) The Shenzhen Municipal Government has launched a 400 million car replacement subsidy, which can be applied for online.

Comment: The National Development and Reform Commission’s statement reflects that the car purchase restriction policy is expected to be further relaxed in the second half of the year, and local government support for new energy vehicles is expected to be further enhanced, helping to effectively recover sales in the second half of the year. Companies focusing on the supply chains of international car companies such as Tesla and Volkswagen.

(Investment consultant Yang Dong? Registered investment consultant certificate number: S0260615080007)