Oil prices "reversed" and will fall for 4 consecutive days next Tuesday! Pig price and grain price warning upgraded, what happened?

# Oil Price Adjustment Information# Introduction Recently, the rise and fall of gasoline and diesel prices has affected the hearts of many "car owners". Entering this round of pricing cycle, due to the fluctuation of international crude oil prices in the first four working days, rose, the change rate of crude oil rose to 3.33%, and news of rising oil prices was also rampant. However, in recent days, due to significant changes in international crude oil prices, the rise in oil prices has been "reversed." Next Tuesday, domestic gasoline and diesel prices may usher in "four consecutive fall"! In the pig and grain markets, pig prices have continued to fluctuate sideways recently, with the rise and fall of pig prices lacking a clear direction. In the grain market, grain prices have been sluggish, and corn and wheat prices have bottomed out. Then, the market What happened? What changes will come next? Let’s discuss it in detail below!

1. Oil prices "reversed" and oil prices may "fall for four consecutive days" next Tuesday!

As we all know, in the first half of this year, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which intensified the pressure of international energy tensions, crude oil prices rose sharply, and domestic gasoline and diesel prices also increased. Previously, the price of No. 92 gasoline once rose to 9.31 yuan/ L, consumers are facing huge travel pressure. However, recently, due to the risk of economic downturn and international inflation pressure, oil prices have fallen for three consecutive years. Consumers have spent nearly 40 to 50 yuan less on filling up a tank of oil. However, " "High oil prices" still leave consumers struggling, and there are endless calls from the market for "four consecutive declines"!

However, during the current pricing cycle, crude oil prices have changed significantly in the first four working days. However, as OPEC increases production and Libya, Saudi Arabia and others increase oil exports, the downward pressure on the international economy has been superimposed, and crude oil prices have continued to rise. On August 5, this round of pricing cycle entered the 8th working day, and the crude oil price change rate was -0.99%. Among them, WTI crude oil price was 88.54 US dollars/barrel, and Brent crude oil dropped to 94.12 US dollars/barrel. Oil price adjustments are expected "stranded"!

However, compared with the previous working day, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have dropped by nearly 100 yuan/ton. Currently, according to the crude oil change rate of -0.99%, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have dropped by 48 yuan/ton. Although , is still in the "stranded" stage of oil price adjustment. However, there is still a risk of further decline in international crude oil prices. If crude oil prices continue to decline in the next two working days, then oil prices may usher in "4" next week. "Continuous decline", however, the decline may remain at a low level, with the price falling by less than 0.1 yuan/L!

Nowadays, the downward trend of oil prices is gradually taking shape. However, at present, the prices of gasoline and diesel in various regions of the country still continue to be the price adjusted on July 26. In Shandong, the current price of No. 92 gasoline remains at 8.52 yuan/ L, while the price of No. 95 gasoline remains at 9.14 yuan/L. Please see the chart below for oil price levels in other regions!

2. The price of pigs fell sideways, and the market was in a dilemma!

Recently, in the author’s hometown, rural areas of Shandong, the price of local common pork has hovered around 17 to 20 yuan/jin. The price of pork is on the high side, downstream consumption enthusiasm is weak, and the market has a certain resistance to consumption. .

In the domestic pig market, pig prices continued to change rapidly in August. On August 5, pig prices fluctuated and fell, with the national average pig price falling to 21.51 yuan/kg. The price fell by 0.15 yuan/kg, and the market showed a narrow decline!

From the perspective of regional markets across the country, most pig prices showed a downward trend on August 5. Only in South China, pig prices rose against the trend. In Guangdong, pig prices rose to 24.1 yuan/kg. ! In the traditional low-price areas, the Northeast market, Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning regions, the price of pigs has successively dropped to 20.5 yuan/kg, and the price of live pigs has shown a narrow decline. In East China, North China, Southwest and Central China, pig prices have fluctuated lower!

Currently, judging from market segment quotations, although pig prices are on a downward trend, the decline is limited and the market performance is relatively divergent!

On the one hand, the consumer market lacks effective support.

Affected by hot weather and residents’ enthusiasm for fruit and vegetable consumption, the demand for meat products has dropped sharply, and there is more pressure on consumption. However, the supply of white-striped pigs in slaughterhouses has been reduced to ensure price, and the price of pork in the terminal market has been relatively stable. Prices are trading sideways at high levels. In many rural grassroots markets, pork prices hover around 16 to 20 yuan/jin!

However, due to the slow delivery of pork in the downstream market, the operating rate of slaughterhouses has dropped significantly. At present, the machine operating rate of domestic large-scale slaughterhouses is less than 20%. Slaughterers have reduced their pig collections and there are insufficient downstream orders. , the price-lowering sentiment is still hovering at a high level!

On the other hand, the sentiment on the breeding side is divided! At present, large-scale pig enterprises are showing an increase in sales, and downstream traders are not enthusiastic about receiving goods. However, some retail pig farms, especially in the Northeast, have a certain reluctance to sell. Due to the shortage of some low-price pig sources in the Northeast, Actively falling below 20 yuan/kg, retail pig farms are in the mood to bear the price, the market sentiment for pig sales is divided, the supply of pigs from slaughterhouses to factories is also extremely unstable, and the mood to collect pigs at low prices is also constantly changing!

Therefore, in the short term, due to the divergence of pig supply in the market, pig prices may continue to fluctuate at the bottom, and the market lacks obvious ups and downs. However, after entering mid-to-late August, pig price rebound expectations will gradually appear!

3. Grain prices are sluggish, and it is difficult for wheat and corn prices to rise!

Recently, the wheat and corn markets have shown volatile and weak performance. Among them, wheat prices, according to the latest data, have slowed down. Among them, Daming Wudeli, Xuzhou Huasheng Flour, Shandong The wheat quotations of Luqing Flour, Linyi Wudeli and Anyang Yihai Kerry fell by 10 yuan/ton. In Shandong, Hebei, and Henan regions, the wheat quotations of mainstream flour mills hovered at 1.54~1.57 yuan/jin!

Although wheat prices have continued to fluctuate and weaken recently, the wheat quotations of mainstream companies have not declined. Currently, they remain at around 1.55 yuan/jin! According to analysis by industry insiders, the price of wheat has fallen recently, traders and grassroots farmers have weakened in selling grain, flour mills have insufficient wheat arrivals, and corporate price support has weakened! In August, although the machine operating rate of flour mills was insufficient at the beginning of the month, and downstream flour shipments were also relatively sluggish, after entering mid-to-late August, flour mills were boosted by students returning to school and double holiday consumption, and the operating rate of enterprises may be will increase significantly, and the demand for wheat will also increase significantly. Although the current wheat stocks in factories are increasing, the market has a trend of replenishing stocks at low prices. Therefore, it is difficult for wheat prices to continue to fall. After entering mid-to-late August, as companies start operations As the rate increases, the operation of flour mills to raise prices to collect grains will also increase, and prices will gradually move up!

In the corn market, domestic spot corn continues to fluctuate and weaken. From the demand side, currently, the demand sentiment of feed mills is poor, the sentiment of purchasing corn is sluggish, and the inventory products of deep processing enterprises are not available. On the positive side, there is more pressure to reduce overcapacity, the operating rate of enterprises is sluggish, the corn inventory is relatively sufficient, the wait-and-see sentiment is high and the sentiment of cautious restocking is high, and the sentiment of corn price increase is biased!

Due to the recent continued decline in corn prices, traders are in a sluggish mood for grain shipments. However, factories in Shandong have reduced shipments, and companies lack the enthusiasm to raise prices. The sentiments of some traders are divided, and pessimism is fermenting. Shandong In the region, the number of corn arrivals from companies increased to more than 400 cartloads. Companies responded by lowering prices, and many domestic factories lowered prices to collect grains!

Among them, in the Northeast region, spot corn is mainly stable but weak. The prices of Kailu Yuwang, Qinggang Longfeng, and Jingliang Longjiang companies have dropped by 6 to 10 yuan/ton, and the mainstream corn quotations are 1.3 to 1.35 yuan. /catty! In Shandong, many factories cut prices to collect grain, with corn quotations falling by 10 to 40 yuan/ton, and Seven Star Lemon quotations falling by 40 yuan, with the execution price being 1.419 yuan/jin.

Taian Xiangrui’s quotation fell by 26 yuan, with an execution price of 1.399 yuan/catty. Shandong mainstream companies’ quotations fell to 1.362~1.467 yuan/jin, and most factories quoted 1.37~1.43 yuan/jin!

According to analysis by industry insiders, due to weak demand performance and insufficient demand for corn recently, prices are still fluctuating and weak. However, at present, the quotations from most factories in Shandong have gradually fallen below 1.4 yuan/jin. The price fell below the cost line of traders to build warehouses. Therefore, traders' reluctance to sell has become stronger, and the circulation of corn in the market has decreased. After entering late August, the temperature gradually dropped, and corporate inventories continued to be consumed. The enthusiasm for replenishing warehouses may rebound, and prices will also rebound. Will fluctuate and rise!

Oil prices "reverse" and will fall for 4 consecutive days next Tuesday! Pig price and grain price warning upgraded, what happened? What do you think of this!