Pig prices "skyrocketed", fish market was depressed, crabs "dived", and phosphate fertilizer was greatly strengthened. What's the matter?

The introduction in September gradually came to an end. In the domestic agricultural products market, the prices of live pigs and aquatic products are hot and cold, and the price of pigs continues to fluctuate strongly. However, the upward trend gradually changed. In terms of aquatic products, the fish market is sluggish. In particular, the price of crabs shows a downward trend of "diving"! However, in the phosphate fertilizer market, due to the sharp rise in raw material prices, phosphate fertilizer has greatly strengthened. So, what happened in the market? The key analysis is coming!

Aquatic products market:

At present, the supply of domestic aquatic products market is relatively broad, but the demand is limited by the decline of consumption inertia after the Mid-Autumn Festival and the problem of domestic masks. The market circulation is insufficient and the price is weak. In particular, the domestic soybean meal market has skyrocketed recently, the price of aquatic feed has risen, and some categories of aquaculture have fallen into loss pressure!

The data shows that most of the prices of common water, grass carp, crucian carp, carp and tilapia have stabilized sideways this week, but they have all declined to varying degrees compared with last year! Among them, the average price of grass carp in Tangkou this week was 5.9 yuan, and the price decreased by 10% year-on-year. The market demand is average and the supply is relatively loose. Grass carp market in parts of South China dropped by 0.3~0.8 yuan/kg! In the crucian carp market, the average price of Tangkou in 8.7 yuan dropped by 7% year-on-year. Carassius auratus was sick in some markets in East China, the market supply increased substantially, and the price fluctuated downward. The price drop in some markets in Yancheng reached 0.7 yuan/kg! Carp market, the average price this week was 5. 1 yuan, down 3% year-on-year, and the supply and marketing market performed generally. Due to the fall in demand after the holiday and the lack of consumer support, the cost increase at the breeding end has been controlled, so both supply and marketing are in a downturn and prices are sideways!

In the crustacean market, the average price of shrimp ponds nationwide this week was 23.7 yuan/kg, down 2.6% from last week! But for crabs, as crabs began to be listed in large quantities, the demand dropped significantly after the Mid-Autumn Festival. The average price of Tangkou crabs this week was 48.4 yuan/kg, down 37.3% from last week! The price of crabs "dives". Hairy crabs in Jiangsu generally decreased 10~27 yuan/kg. Among them, the price of Xinghua 3.5 mother in 20 yuan has dropped to 65 yuan/Jin! 2.5~4 The price of male crabs is generally 22~38 yuan/kg, while that of female crabs is 33~ 130 yuan/kg!

Phosphate fertilizer market:

With the arrival of Golden September and Silver 10, the domestic phosphate fertilizer market, the downstream demand side concentrated on stocking, and the price of phosphate fertilizer rose sharply due to the rising cost of raw materials! Especially recently, the average price of domestic mainstream thermal phosphoric acid rose to 10320 yuan/ton, and the price of phosphoric acid soared. The fundamental reason is that after the Mid-Autumn Festival, the price of yellow phosphorus in the raw material market rose as high as 1500~2000 yuan/ton, which also made the price of phosphoric acid rebound by about 1000 yuan/ton!

According to industry analysis, after the Mid-Autumn Festival, the weather turned cold, the support for stocking in the downstream market became stronger, and the inventory of enterprises was low. Recently, the volume and price of processing enterprises have risen, and the operating rate of domestic mainstream thermal phosphoric acid industry has risen to 45. 1%, while the operating rate of wet phosphoric acid is as high as 79.7%, and the operating rate of enterprises has increased. Due to the rising cost and price, the price increase performance of phosphoric acid industry rebounded!

However, personally, this round of sharp rise in the price of phosphate fertilizer is supported by the excessive rise in the price of yellow phosphorus. However, on June 5438+00, with the end of stocking at the grassroots level, demand will gradually cool down and prices may fluctuate downward. But in the short term, due to the high cost pressure, the performance of both the supply and demand sides of the market is more prominent, and the market will continue to rise further!

Pig market:

In the domestic hog market, on September 25th, the hog price rose continuously 10. Although the increase in the price of live pigs was limited, the market price rose from 23.46 yuan/kg to 24.28 yuan/kg. However, due to the consistency of the rebound of pig prices, the rise of pig prices is quite irrational, and the early warning of market price decline is prominent!

The data shows that on September 25, the average price of live pigs nationwide rose to 24.28 yuan, up 0.05 yuan from yesterday, and the market showed a narrow and strong performance. Compared with the previous day, the price increase of live pigs has dropped significantly! Shandong and Hubei in the north and south regions of China are mixed, while the increase of pig prices in the north region has obviously shrunk, while the pig prices in the northeast and north China have generally stabilized, and some low-priced pig sources still show compensatory growth!

Among them, the price quoted by slaughter enterprises in the black chicken feed market hovers around 24~24. 15 yuan, and the rebound rate of pig price is only 0.05~0. 1 yuan/kg! In the North China market, the price of Shanxi and Inner Mongolia fluctuated by 0.05 yuan, and the upward trend dropped significantly. Among them, Hebei's price was stable at 24.3 yuan, while Inner Mongolia's price soared by 24 yuan/kg! In the southern market, pig prices fluctuate within a narrow range. In southwest China, the quotations of slaughter enterprises have mostly stabilized. Chongqing market rose by 0. 1 yuan, while Sichuan was stable at 24.7 yuan/kg.

In East China, Shandong fell within a narrow range, Anhui and Fujian fluctuated, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets stabilized. Among them, the Fujian market rose to 25.2 yuan, and the Shandong market fell to 24. 1 yuan/kg! In the central region, Hubei dropped by 0. 1 yuan, Henan rose to 24.2 yuan, and Jiangxi rose to 0.2 yuan, with an average price of 24. 1~24.7 yuan/kg! South China's Guangdong and Guangxi markets are sideways at 24.4~25.6 yuan/kg!

The price of live pigs fluctuated and rose. However, from the market feedback, at present, the enthusiasm of the breeding end has improved. Although the performance of pigs in the retail market is average, large-scale pig enterprises have incremental performance, superposition, the phenomenon of secondary fattening has decreased, the difficulty of slaughterhouse procurement has decreased significantly, the market wait-and-see deadlock has become prominent, and the downward pressure on pig prices is greater!

In addition, the domestic consumer market lacks effective support. Although there is still a bullish sentiment in the market near the National Day, due to the high price of pork, ordinary residents have a strong resistance, and there are too many fresh pork, while the domestic reserve pork continues to be put in, and the enthusiasm for stabilizing prices and ensuring supply is strong!

Therefore, based on the adjustment of market supply and demand, this round of pig price rise is coming to an end, and the market has the risk of rising and falling. However, the market has limited downside. After all, slaughter enterprises have the demand of centralized stocking, and the breeding end also has the expectation of going out on rallies. Pig prices will remain high and volatile!

Pig prices "skyrocketed", crabs "dived" in the fish market, and phosphate fertilizer was greatly strengthened. What's the matter? What do you think of this? The above is my personal opinion!