Forecast the weather in China this year.

September 19th is warm, like June, and this year's September 19th is as cold as March 9th. What are the signs:

As the saying goes, "1929 doesn't make a move, and in 1949 it walks on the ice." In most years, September and September are not so cold, and March and April are very cold, which is basically the coldest time of the year. Because March 9th and April 9th respectively correspond to the "slight cold" and "severe cold" solar terms in 24 solar terms.

However, this is not always the case. In some years, it is very cold even in September and September. For example, in 2022, China's northeast, north China, Huanghuai and other places were also very cold during the Ninth Five-Year Plan, which can be said to be as cold as the Third Nine-Year Plan. The reason for this abnormal phenomenon is that the cold air was active at that time.

The same is true this year, affected by waves of cold waves, and these cold waves are all "king-fried" levels, resulting in the cold before the solar term from winter to Sunday this year, and many places in the north have experienced serious snowstorms for many years. It is precisely for these reasons that some netizens are worried about whether this year will be a "cold winter", and some even say that this year will be a "cold winter" once in 60 years.

You know, before entering the winter this year, some experts predicted the weather situation this winter, saying that the temperature in most parts of China this winter is close to the same period or high, the previous winter is warmer, the next winter is close to normal, and there is more precipitation in the south; At the end of winter (1-February 2024), there are many cold air processes affecting China. In other words, it may be warmer this winter.

Especially later, there was a moderate intensity El Nino event, and its direct impact was to raise the temperature. So this is an important basis for some experts to predict that this year will be a "warm winter".

However, the current situation is just the opposite. Before the arrival of the winter solstice, not only did the temperature drop and snow fall on a large scale, but it was also very cold on September 9, which was equivalent to March 9.

In addition, there are some agricultural proverbs handed down by our ancestors, such as "September is warm, September is like June", which means that if September is warm and winter is warmer, the temperature in September will be higher, and it may even be as hot as June. On the contrary, if it is relatively cold during September 9, it means that the winter of that year is relatively cold.

There is also "snow in the first nine years, snow in the ninth year", which means that it has already started to snow in the ninth year, indicating that there will be more snow in the future, and it will snow almost every ninth year. If it snows, it will be cold, and there will be snow for nine days, which means it is cold in winter.

Similarly, it doesn't snow for the first nine days, just like in June of 1999, it snows for nine days, it gets hot for nine days, it doesn't rain for the first nine days, it rains for the first nine days and so on. It began to snow and rain on 1999, so it rained frequently for the whole nine days, which means it was cold in winter.

Therefore, we need to observe the temperature change trend throughout winter to judge whether it will be warm or cold in the future. At the same time, we also need to understand the complexity and uncertainty of climate change, and we can't just rely on traditional statements to predict the future weather.