Why has Europe become the "epidemic" center of COVID-19? The expert told the truth.

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According to the statistics of the World Health Organization, as of April 0-24, 13, there were 1905935 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and18623 deaths worldwide. There were 30,852 newly confirmed cases in Europe, with a total of 965,927 confirmed cases. Data show that Europe currently accounts for about half of the global cases, and it is still the center of the COVID-19 epidemic. Due to the unstable epidemic situation, on April 8, the European Union announced that it would continue to extend the closure order until May 15.

Why is the epidemic center in Europe?

Generally speaking, when an emerging infectious disease spreads in communities on many continents, it is called an epidemic. Today, Europe has become the center of the COVID-19 epidemic. What does this center mean? Judging whether a new disease has become an epidemic center in a certain place is mainly based on two data of daily new cases and existing cases in this area.

According to the latest data released by the World Health Organization, as of 23: 00 on April 13, Central European Daylight Time, there were 30,852 newly confirmed cases in Europe, including 350 cases in Spain, 3 cases in Italy, and more than 4,000 cases in France and Britain. In addition, existing cases = total cases-death cases-cured cases. According to the available data, there are about 650,000 cases in Europe, while there are only about 2,000 cases in China. Therefore, according to the data, the number of new cases and existing cases in Europe has far exceeded that in China, and even at the worst of the China epidemic, the number of new cases was lower than that in Europe.

At present, Europe accounts for most of all new cases and existing cases in the world, which is why it has become the center of novel coronavirus epidemic.

It is worth noting that the existing cases are contagious, and their number affects the difficulty of epidemic prevention and control. If the population base of existing cases is large and there are many sources of infection, people will be infected constantly. If it is not well controlled, the spread will continue to expand and the number of cases will continue to increase, and the impact may still be relatively large.

Does it have anything to do with the lifestyle of Europeans?

The reason why Europe became the center of the COVID-19 epidemic is related to the public awareness, government measures and the characteristics of the virus itself after the outbreak.

First of all, from the perspective of public awareness, in many European and American countries, people don't particularly like wearing masks, but with the aggravation of the epidemic, the government gradually began to require wearing masks, and the demand for masks is increasing day by day. At the beginning of the epidemic, the proportion of people wearing masks in European countries was not particularly high, which accelerated the spread of the epidemic in Europe to some extent.

In addition, after the outbreak, young people in some western countries still appear in bars, streets and other public places for gathering activities, and the virus can easily spread among people who have not taken protective measures. The lack of public awareness of self-prevention has led to the accelerated spread of the epidemic.

Secondly, from the government and national level, western countries did not pay enough attention to COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic, and the prevention and control were not in place, which missed the first window of epidemic prevention. Most of them adopt a step-by-step strategy in the early stage of the epidemic, observe the extent of the epidemic and decide what countermeasures to take. With the increasingly tense situation in Italy, Britain, Spain and other countries, more active epidemic prevention measures have been taken. At this time, the prime time of effective epidemic prevention has been missed, and the epidemic has spread widely. At this time, the cost of prevention and control is not only greater, but also limited.

Finally, judging from the characteristics of the virus itself, firstly, COVID-19 is highly contagious. Public health experts will calculate the infectivity of the virus by counting the number of virus regenerations. COVID-19's R0 value is between 2 and 3, that is, 1 infected person will spread the disease to 2 or 3 other people without external intervention. Second, COVID-19 is very secretive. There are asymptomatic patients or recessive infected people, and they are also contagious. Third, some cases show symptoms after being infected with the virus for a period of time, but they are actually contagious in the incubation period. Therefore, these characteristics of virus make it difficult to prevent and control.

How to protect the lives of overseas Chinese?

What needs to be emphasized is nothing more than these points: first, in personal hygiene, wear a mask, wash your hands frequently with tap water, and avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth with your hands. Avoid going to crowded places. If you must go, keep a certain social distance.

Second, pay attention to improving personal immunity. From a medical point of view, the severity of diseases caused by viruses has three aspects: one is the virulence of the virus itself, the other is the number of viruses, and the third is the human body's own immunity, so it is very important to enhance personal immunity and resistance. For example, to ensure adequate sleep, sleep time and sleep quality are directly proportional to immunity. Pay attention to diet and eat more foods rich in protein and vitamins.

Third, maintain mental health. During the epidemic, the input of a large amount of network information will bring people anxiety, and there will be many distorted information and even rumors. Anxiety and even depression caused by long-term exposure to such information will lead to decreased immunity. Experts suggest reducing the input of complicated information sources and paying more attention to authoritative information platforms. In addition, you can focus more on what you think is important, for example, you can set some small goals in life, and the sense of accomplishment after achieving them will make people feel happy and stable psychologically.

Although the epidemic situation in European and American countries is still grim, it is only a matter of time and cost to believe that the epidemic situation will be controlled according to their prevention and control strength, economic conditions and social development. At present, it is necessary to pay attention to the epidemic prevention and control capabilities of third world countries such as Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America. In view of the strong infectivity of the virus and its fatal effect on some people, if these countries do not control it well, the center of the epidemic is likely to shift from Europe and America to these third world countries, triggering a humanitarian crisis.

Interviewed experts: teacher of Clinical Epidemiology and Evidence-based Medicine Center of Fudan University, deputy chief physician of urology department of Shanghai Fifth People's Hospital, and Wang Wei, a special expert of Daxiaohihu medical communication think tank.

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