9. 15 wheat stagflation, corn decline, oil price decline "face-changing", pig price retaliatory decline?

In the first half of September, there were new changes in the agricultural product market. The market prices of grain, live pigs and refined oil have "fallen together"! Among them, the fluctuation of grain price is weak, wheat stagflation, corn yield growth rate narrowed, while the decline of oil price "changed face" and the decline shrank obviously. So, what happened to the market?

First, wheat stagflation, corn decline!

In the corn market, at present, new and old corn has entered the merging stage, and the number of new corn is small, with sporadic harvest in some areas of Heijiliao, and garlic stubble corn is the main crop in North China! The price of aged corn is relatively stable, and the price of enterprises is adjusted within a narrow range!

In the north and south markets of China, in the northeast, the quotations of mainstream corn price enterprises stabilized, and the quotations of Heilongjiang Longjiang Fufeng and Zhalantun Fufeng rose by 10~20 yuan/ton, the Heilongjiang market generally remained at 1.295~ 1.33 yuan/kg, and the starting price of Fujin Yu Xiang 30-moisture new grain was 0.98 yuan/kg.

The liquor prices of Gansu Pingliang Guowei, Hebei Qinhuangdao Pengyuan, Qinhuangdao Lihua and Mengzhou Han Yong were lowered by 20~40 yuan/ton, and Hebei quoted 1.3 ~ 1.38 yuan/kg.

In Shandong, the grain source of the factory is maintained at 680 wagons, and the performance of enterprises is weak with the increase of corn. Among them, Huayi Ronghai's quotation rose by 20 yuan, and the execution price was 1.4 12 yuan/kg.

Binzhou Jinhui, Yishui Dida, Yishui Qingyuan, Heze Chengwu, Tai 'an Xiangrui's quotations dropped by 10 yuan/ton, while Shandong mainstream factories quoted 1.36 ~ 1.44 yuan/kg!

According to industry analysts, with the increase of corn quantity, the price will continue the trend of "quantity increase and price decrease", the price of new and old corn will gradually form a merger trend, and the new corn will open higher, reminding traders to be cautious in the early stage and follow the harvest. After all, according to previous years' experience, it will enter 10. With the concentrated increase of corn quantity, the price will fluctuate downwards, and new corn will have a trend of opening higher and going lower! However, due to the reduction of corn production this year and the arrival of a new round of breeding cycle, the demand side will be prominent and the corn market will be better than last year!

In the wheat market, the price of wheat has been stagnating recently, and the cooler weather is conducive to supporting the delivery of terminal flour. However, due to the upcoming listing of autumn corn, the focus of the market has shifted to the storage and storage of corn, so the storage and storage point of wheat prices has gradually been marginalized! Wheat prices will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range with market turnover. In the short term, the demand will rebound and the wheat autumn harvest will continue to play, and the price will also fluctuate sideways!

At present, in the domestic market, the main wheat producing areas are Shandong, Hebei and Henan, and the quotations of grain enterprises are mainly sideways. Among them, the wheat quotations of Shandong Heze Feixiang Flour Industry and Shandong Tianbang decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those of Henan Zhoukou Wudeli and Zhoukou Yihai Kerry increased by 10 yuan/ton! For wheat milling enterprises, the mainstream quotation remains at around 1.53~ 1.56 yuan/kg, and the market continues to be deadlocked!

Personally, the root of stagflation of wheat price is that the market supply is relatively sufficient, while the demand for wheat is relatively small, and there is no basis for feeding. Although residents' demand for flour has improved as the weather turns cold, and downstream traders also have stocking demand, enterprises are reluctant to replenish their stocks at high prices because of the loose arrival of wheat. Therefore, in the short term, wheat prices will remain sideways! However, after entering the fourth quarter, with the gradual reduction of market surplus grain and the gradual improvement of demand side, wheat prices may strengthen against the trend. But for high gluten wheat, the price is still firm at this stage, and the transaction price of old high gluten wheat is generally 1.6~ 1.65 yuan/kg!

Second, the oil price fell and "changed face"!

On September 15, this round of oil price adjustment entered the sixth working day. It is understood that the change rate of crude oil is maintained at -6.32%, and the decline rate of oil price is maintained at 260 yuan/ton. Compared with the previous working day, the oil price dropped by 30 yuan/ton. During this round of oil price adjustment, the cumulative decline of oil price reached 140 yuan/ton!

Oil prices rebounded from the low level, and the rate of change of crude oil kept rising. At present, according to the forecast of crude oil change rate of -6.32%, the price of gasoline and diesel in this round will be lowered by 260 yuan, equivalent to 0.2~0.24 yuan /L, and the private car will be filled with a box of No.92 gasoline, which is expected to cost less 10 ~ 12 yuan. The window for a new round of oil price adjustment will appear on September 265438.

At present, the domestic market, 8.4 yuan /L No.92 gasoline; No.95 gasoline is 9.02 yuan/liter; No.0 diesel oil 8. 1 yuan/liter

Third, the retaliatory decline in pig prices?

On September 15, the price of live pigs surged and fell, and the price of live pigs started a downward cycle. Then, with the release of reserve pork, the constraints of the consumer market and the counterattack of the breeding end, should the price of live pigs fall in retaliation?

The data shows that the average price of ternary pigs at home and abroad is 23.57 yuan/kg, down 0. 1 1 yuan from the previous day, and the pig price has rebounded, with the internal ternary price dropping to 23.2 yuan/kg and the local miscellaneous pigs dropping to 22.8 yuan/kg!

In the domestic market, the quotation of slaughter enterprises fluctuates within a narrow range, and the price of pigs rises and falls. Among them, the prices of slaughter enterprises in Zhejiang, Fujian, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Qinghai, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong and Guangxi increased by 0.0 1~0.32 yuan, and the price of pigs in Guizhou increased by 1.06 yuan, with a price of 24.7 yuan. The pig prices in Shandong, Anhui, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Gansu, Ningxia, Henan, Hubei, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Heilongjiang, Liaoning and other places generally dropped by 0.0 1~0.3 yuan, and the pig prices in Jiangsu dropped by 0.6 yuan, with an execution price of 23.22 yuan/kg!

At present, pig prices are in a downward trend, supporting the downward trend of pig prices. On the one hand, the performance of the consumer market is outstanding, the transportation of pigs with white stripes is more difficult, and the performance of the demand side is obviously cooled down, while the new round of 6.5438+0.5 million tons of pork storage and storage is reopened, further aggravating the decline of the market consumption side; On the other hand, the slaughter rhythm of large pig enterprises has resumed, the supply of pigs has gradually relaxed, the slaughter of large pigs in group pig enterprises has become more difficult, the market's resistance to high-priced pig sources has warmed up, the demand for slaughterhouses has deteriorated, the enthusiasm for collecting pigs has declined, and the sentiment of collecting pigs at high prices has declined!

Therefore, based on the adjustment of market supply and demand, it is estimated that the pig price has a downward trend. However, due to the depressed mood of retail pig farms, the phenomenon of slaughtering pigs still exists. Slaughterhouses face different difficulties in purchasing live pigs, and some slaughterhouses are slow in planning. Therefore, the pig price lacks the basis for a sharp drop, the breeding profit is loose, and the slaughter performance is relatively flexible, which also limits the sharp drop in pig prices!

9. 15 wheat stagflation, corn decline, oil price decline "face-changing", pig price retaliatory decline? What do you think of this? The above is my personal opinion!