# Taihe # You've dug too many holes

Taihe can't wait for the battle of peers.

April real estate

07- 15 22:07

watch out for

Recently, the debate about Taihe in Snowball is fierce, and the focus is whether Taihe can introduce Vanke War Investment. I also explained before that Vanke will not take over Taihe. This time, I want to analyze the reasons behind this.

Vanke wants to take over Taihe, of course, hoping to get excess returns at Taihe's low price. For housing enterprises, the core embodiment of income is the quality of soil storage. If the quality of land reserve is not high, Vanke will spend money to buy a bunch of embroidered pillows, and even help to wipe off debts. In this terrible year, Vanke, which is famous for its good management, will not be eager to be a big head. Greentown, Huaxia, and this year's Fu Sheng, before they were able to sell themselves successfully, all relied on their own high-quality land reserve resources to make a living. Is there a real high-quality land reserve with a value of 400 billion claimed by Natai and Taiwan?

I checked the annual reports of Taihe 20 19 and 20 17. The reason for checking the annual report of Taihe 20 17 is that this is the last year of land acquisition. It is found that this year's annual report uses a new term-accumulated land reserve. In this table, it is listed that the remaining developable building area of Taihe is10165438+5000m2. According to the value of 400 billion yuan, the price of this unit is nearly 40 thousand. Among the existing projects to be developed in Taihe, only the undeveloped land of Shenzhen Baoan Project (Shenzhen Yard) can be sold at an ultra-high price with a land price of 80,000 yuan. Then the unit price of the remaining national soil storage should be at least 40 thousand.

Can we continue to develop the surplus soil storage and sell it at an average price of 40 thousand?

The year of 20 17 was the year in which Taihe got the most land, and it was also the last year. Therefore, the soil reserves published in that year have certain reference significance, and the list basically covers most of the soil reserves in Taihe. Of course, some soil storage is still uncovered. Please forgive me. Taking the newly-increased soil reserves marked in the 20 17 annual report as an example, I analyzed the newly-increased soil reserves in 20 17 combined with the announcement data of Taihe, hoping to have a general understanding of the soil reserves in Taihe through this year's project.

Gushan Yard:

Or Taihe Holdings, with a total production capacity of 47 1 1,000 square meters. Judging from the investment progress, it is still in the very early stage of the project, and it can be regarded as a soil reservoir.

Qingyun Town:

Holding 2.5% shares, which have been sold and not traded, is not considered as Taihe soil storage.

Jinshui Lake Project:

Holding 40% shares, sold, not traded, not counting Taihe soil reserve. It is speculated that the equity will be sold later.

Xishan Yard:

Holding 50% of the shares and trading, currently under construction, 85% of the investment has been completed, which is regarded as a project under construction.

Zhangzhou Xiangshan Bay Project:

Holding 70% of the shares, trading, with a total capacity of 907,000 square meters. From the perspective of investment progress, it is still in the early stage and can be regarded as a soil reserve.

Longchi Project in jiaomei, Zhangzhou:

Holding 60% of the shares, trading, with a total capacity of 362,000 square meters, the investment has been basically completed, and it is in a basically completed state, not counting Taihe soil reserve.

Beijing Sunhe Project:

This project is the second phase of Beijing Market, with a shareholding of 100%, and is now in a state of suspension.

Tianjin Shi Lang Project:

This project is a Jinhai storage yard, and it has been basically confirmed that Shi Lang has acquired the equity of this project, and Taihe is no longer trading, which is not considered as Taihe soil storage.

Chongli project:

At present, it is not reflected in the report.

Shimenyuan:

Holding 100% shares, trading, total capacity137,000 cubic meters. Judging from the progress of capital investment, the project is in the middle and early stage and can be regarded as soil reserve.

Fengxian Bay Project:

Holding 100% shares, trading, with a total capacity of 93,000 square meters, has been officially sold, not counting Taihe soil reserve.

Nanjing Jiangning Courtyard:

Holding 100% shares, trading, with a capacity of 5915000m2, which was not reflected in the report of 20 19. The project cannot be started due to regional planning problems, and it is regarded as Taihe soil storage.

Lushan Yard:

Holding 65,438+000%, trading, with a total capacity of 65,438+003,5438+000,000 square meters. At present, a lawsuit is being filed with the original owner to appeal the issue of land withdrawal. Before the land is recovered, it is temporarily identified as Taihe soil storage.

Jurong Jin Zunfu:

Holding 100% shares, trading, with a total capacity of 292,000 square meters, 87% of the investment progress has been completed, and it has been sold, not counting Taihe soil reserve.

Taicang freight yard:

It holds 565,438+0% shares with a total capacity of 65,438+058,000 square meters. In fact, the project has been sold to Fahua, which is currently operated by Fahua and has been pre-sold, so it is not regarded as Taihe soil storage.

Kunshan project:

Holding 80% of the shares, the total production capacity is about 500,000 square meters (the project needs to pay a premium to complete the production capacity increase). At present, the project is in the early stage, which can be regarded as Taihe soil storage, and Shimao has the preemptive right.

Jurong Tongkang Hospital: Sold.

Castle Peak Courtyard:

It has been sold together with the Jiangcun project.

Small courtyards in big cities:

70% of the shares, with a total storage capacity of 253,000 cubic meters. For sale, part of it is developed, and part of it can be recorded as Taihe soil storage.

Wuhan Jinsha Peninsula Project:

No longer appears in the report.

Guangzhou Zengcheng Project:

Holding 20% of the shares, not trading, it is expected that the equity will be sold later, not counting the land reserve.

Huiyang Jinzunfu:

Holding 100% shares, trading, total capacity125,000 square meters. Judging from the investment progress, the project is in the early stage and can be recorded as Taihe soil storage.

Taihe Chongwen Building:

Holding 100% shares, trading, with a total production capacity of 49,000 square meters and an investment progress of 77%. In the late stage of construction, for sale, not counting soil storage.

Shenzhen market:

Holding 100% shares, trading, with a total capacity of 92,000 square meters, 58,000 square meters about to open, and the land price of 34,000 square meters is still under construction, which is considered as a soil reserve.

Renzhuang Project:

No longer appears in the report.

Street project:

Holding 80% shares, trading, production area of 575,000 square meters, from the investment progress, it is still in the middle and early stage, which can be regarded as a soil reserve.

Hanyu project:

Holding 5 1%, trading, production area of 227,000 square meters, now in the later stage, the investment progress is 69%. It is for sale and is not considered as soil storage.

To sum up, according to the "land that Taihe can freely control", the optimistic estimate is about 4.2 million square meters. However, among these 4.2 million square meters, there are 6.5438+0.03 million square meters, such as Lushan project, which has to sue the original owner for land withdrawal due to planning problems, and there are also 590,000 square meters of projects, such as Qinglong Lake, where the market obviously exceeds demand and the land price of Shenzhen Yard cannot be opened ... The so-called high-quality soil storage refers to the evaluation of the planning, market and price of high-quality soil storage projects. Among them, Kunshan project is of high quality, but Shimao shares are expected to acquire Taihe shares later; Zhengzhou project, Zhengzhou has a good market in recent years, and a large number of preserved soil reserves are still attractive; Hangzhou project, Hangzhou market, Zhengzhou and Hangzhou projects are also of high quality. In addition, it is of little significance to acquire other soil reserves held by Taihe from the project level. If the majority of projects are not worth acquiring at the project level, why should we acquire the equity at the group level as a whole?

Friends who are still in Taihe, while eagerly looking forward to the battle, hope to think rationally and leave a way out for themselves.

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Wonderful comments

Niutiantian oss

Under construction160,000, under construction 1 1 10,000, and the stock of assets, properties and hotels is close to 30 billion. Invisible debt can only be solved by war investment.

Summer of Real Estate: OK, please add some more specific information, probably specific to the project, for your inventory, because to be honest, the data of soil storage I counted according to various Taihe announcements is quite different from what you said. Please add it and restore the most real soil storage instead of claiming it.

07- 17 07:38

1

April real estate

$ TERM Taihe Group (SZ000732)$ Vanke A (SZ 00002) $ China Evergrande (03333)$ Taihe doesn't have a circle of friends like boss Xu of Evergrande, so it's really sad at this juncture. If Vanke really wants to help Taihe, isn't it even willing to pay more than 2 billion yuan, not to bear debts and increase credit for Taihe, and to lock in the so-called "high-quality" land reserve? If Vanke really entered Taihe under the pressure of the government, none of them were launched for Taihe. ...

Walker Jian Zhen replied @ Real Estate Summer: Do you mean to let Taihe sell land to Vanke? This is the lock of high-quality land. Equity investment and asset investment are not the same concept. Before investing, or before the restructured strategic investors buy shares, they must be cleaned up before people come in. To put it bluntly, if you have any ideas about the reorganization process, it will be over now. A bunch of words, supplemented by emotions, anyone can say who, yy. It's all water, it's wrung dry, and there's nothing left.

Real estate summer reply @PONYkxr: Uh-huh, soho assets are all in the core area of the first line, and there are no assets. I don't comment on Pan, but the logic of real estate investment is very similar to that of Li Ka-shing. The possibility of financial fraud in soho is low, so there is basically no need to worry. The focus is on the bulk asset market in Chinese mainland, and we can pay attention to the state's support for the holding industry and the construction of the asset securitization market. I think Blackstone is also waiting for the right time.

Real estate summer reply @PONYkxr: I only analyze the fundamentals and don't prefer to recommend stocks. First of all, Blackstone can be said to know the China market best among real estate funds, and it has been very successful so far. Blackstone took a fancy to soho's stock, the essence of which is that soho's share price is low and its assets are undervalued. However, at the beginning of this year, Blackstone suspended the negotiations with soho, and the reasons behind it can only be found from the following points: the asking price of soho is too high, the market is uncertain during the epidemic, and the operation (leasing business) of soho. ...

There are rich people who reply @ 囎囎囎囎: Everyone feels that they are stock gods.

Senior reply @ 中中中中中-Real estate transformation: Evergrande saves itself first.

09-30 00:08