1.7 million old community, involving hundreds of millions of residents.

A small town in Guojiatuo, Jiangbei District, Chongqing, once famous for its state-owned Wangjiang Machinery Factory, is now full of "the youngest". Most of the buildings here were built in the 1950s and 1960s. (Oriental IC/ map)

(This article first appeared in Southern Weekend on July 4, 20 19)

Old reform and shed reform are equivalent to one handing over the money and the other getting it back.

The renovation of old residential areas has risen to the national level, because it is not only a livelihood project, but also a very effective measure to stabilize investment and stimulate residents' consumption.

The renovation of old residential areas should be promoted on a large scale, and housing enterprises need to find a sustainable profit model in the market, otherwise it will only be a "hard bone".

June 20 19 19 the State Council executive meeting made it clear that the transformation of old urban communities should be accelerated.

The object of old reform refers to the residential quarters built before 2000, with backward public facilities, affecting the basic life of residents and strong residents' willingness to reform.

According to the requirements of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the focus of the old reconstruction project includes the reconstruction and construction of hydropower roads, optical fibers and other supporting facilities in the community. If conditions permit, elevators, parking facilities, service facilities for the elderly and barrier-free facilities can be installed according to local conditions, and energy-saving transformation can be implemented.

This is a "large quantity and wide range" project. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, at present, there are10.7 million old urban residential areas in need of renovation, involving hundreds of millions of residents.

Once the news was released, it first aroused people's imagination of the property market, and the old reform was regarded as a dying shed reform in the relay. After 20 15, the shed was changed to monetary resettlement, and 4 trillion yuan was released in three years, which not only removed the inventory of third-and fourth-tier cities, but also pushed up local housing prices.

Now, once the old reform is born, what changes will it bring?

Yongqingfang, Xiguan historical and cultural block in Liwan District, Guangzhou, has been transformed into the "most beautiful street" integrating residence and tourism through a small transformation of the old city. (Oriental IC/ map)

For residents living in old residential areas, old renovation and shed renovation may be an alternative.

According to the definition standards in relevant documents of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Ministry of Finance, shanty towns originally refer to areas with simple structure, high building density, long service life, incomplete use functions and poor infrastructure. Since 20 12, the concepts of "village in city" and comprehensive renovation of old houses have also been included in the scope of shanty towns.

The document also makes it clear that shanty towns (residential buildings) that have been included or planned to join the urban shantytown renovation plan, as well as areas and villages in the city that are dominated by residents' self-built houses, do not belong to old communities.

According to the statistics of Li, a senior researcher at Shenzhen Real Estate Research Center, there are many old residential areas in China. 42% of urban houses were built before 2000, 16% before 1990, the proportion of urban bungalows on the second and third floors was 2 1%, and the proportion of urban houses without kitchen and bathroom was as high as 16%.

These old communities are collectively referred to as "the youngest" by the market. Poor lighting design, small area, difficulty in parking, problems in building structure, and lack of community commercial facilities and greening are all common problems in these communities.

A senior real estate agent in Shenzhen told Southern Weekend that most of the houses (1980- 1990) built in Shenzhen in the 1960s were sea sand. Because of the high salt content and impurities and poor construction quality, these old communities are now devastated.

At the end of 20 17, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development started the pilot project of the renovation of old urban communities in Guangzhou, Xiamen and other cities 15. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, as of 20 18 and 12, the old residential areas in the pilot cities have been transformed 106, benefiting 59,000 households.

However, an old reform practitioner in Guangzhou admitted to the Southern Weekend reporter that many old communities in the city are ready to be renovated, but relatively few have been or are being renovated. One reason for the slow progress is that all households need to pass, and most of the old communities are houses built by units without property management, so it is difficult to "get everyone's consent" first.

Another important reason is that residents need to spend money on decoration, and many people are unwilling. Although a large part of it is financial subsidies, for example, according to the data of Guangzhou Housing and Urban-Rural Development Department, five pilot communities arranged financial funds of 208 million yuan, with an average of 40 million yuan per community.

Different from the old ones, shed reform belongs to large-scale demolition and construction, and residents of demolished houses can get physical resettlement or monetary compensation. Especially after 20 15, monetary resettlement became the mainstream of shed reform, and about 4 trillion funds flowed into the hands of shantytown residents.

Old reform and shed reform are equivalent to one handing over the money and the other getting it back. "In Shenzhen, the shed reform work for giving money is progressing slowly, let alone paying for the renovation of old communities." The above-mentioned Shenzhen real estate agent said.

The senior management of a real estate asset management company in Shenzhen also told Southern Weekend that the renovation of old residential areas in Shenzhen may be different from the expectations of many residents. Prior to this, many owners who bought old residential areas in Shenzhen were actually waiting for a new round of shed reform plan, hoping to "get rich overnight" after getting the demolition money.

This shows that the impact of the old reform and shed reform on the property market is also very different.

The shed reform releases money, constantly creating and pushing up people's demand for real estate, while the transformation of old residential areas improves the living conditions of residential areas, but delays or shakes the demand of residents to buy new houses.

At the same time, with the transformation of old residential areas becoming a new trend, the expectation of buying houses such as "buying old residential areas and changing sheds into demolition" will be gradually reversed, which can curb speculation in the second-hand housing market to a certain extent.

On June 3rd, 20 19, at the forum of1/Lujiazui, Guo Shuqing, chairman of China Banking Regulatory Commission, said that the current real estate is over-financialized, and the debt ratio of residents accounts for a considerable proportion, and even half of the investment is invested in the real estate market. History has proved that if you rely too much on real estate, you will eventually pay the price.

Although the old reform is different from the shed reform, it is not unrelated to the shed reform at this time.

With the completion of the national task of "destocking" and the determination of the central government to curb the excessive rise of housing prices, on April 5, 200019, the Ministry of Finance clearly informed that the shed reform plan in 200019 was greatly reduced from the expected 4.5 million sets to 2.85 million sets, which was 50.86% lower than that in 200018. At the same time, monetary resettlement has been tightened and physical resettlement has returned to the mainstream.

According to the calculation of Guo Jin Securities Research Institute, if the monetized resettlement ratio of shed reform is maintained at 35% in 20 19, it is estimated that the growth rate of commercial housing sales will be reduced by 12.82%, and the direct pull on real estate investment will be -0.83%.

At the same time, the growth rate of investment in China has declined. According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from May to May, 2065438+2009, the national fixed assets investment was 21755.5 billion yuan, up 5.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage point compared with April.

Correcting the old can make up for the reduced capital investment due to the withdrawal of shed reform. According to the estimate of the State Council Counselor Chou Baoxing, the total investment in old residential areas that need comprehensive renovation can reach 4 trillion yuan. If the transformation period is five years, the annual new investment can reach about 800 billion yuan. The old reform of 4 trillion is equivalent to the amount of funds released by the shed reform in the past.

The research report released by Founder Securities on June 22nd also made a fund statistics. According to the renovation plan announced by some provinces and cities, the average cost is 700 yuan per square meter. Based on this calculation, the pure construction cost of the old reform project will reach 2.8 trillion yuan.

According to the incomplete statistics of Southern Weekend reporters, nine provinces and cities have announced the objectives and detailed plans of the old reform, namely Anhui, Hebei, Xiangyang, Jinan, Nanjing, Panzhihua, Xi 'an, Guangzhou and Xinxiang.

Take Guangzhou as an example, these two years can be called the year when the old reform broke out. According to the 20 18 annual urban renewal plan of Guangzhou, there are 587 micro-renovation projects of old residential areas in Guangzhou with the planned investment of 2014.438+0 billion yuan. According to the Guangzhou 20 19 Key Project Construction Plan, among the 5 1 key projects, 9 old residential quarters are slightly renovated, with a planned total investment of10.25 million yuan.

On July 1 2065438, Yan Huang, Vice Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said at the routine briefing of the State Council policy that the renovation of old residential areas has risen to the national level because it is not only a livelihood project, but also a very effective measure to stabilize investment, and at the same time, it can stimulate residents' consumption and improve residents' indoor facilities. "This is a job with multiple objectives."

Earlier, Chou Baoxing also wrote that the comprehensive renovation of old urban residential areas can eliminate obstacles to expanding residents' consumption by filling the shortage of service facilities such as kindergartens and small supermarkets. On the other hand, it can also open up new consumption patterns such as silver-haired consumption, children's consumption, green development, energy conservation and emission reduction, which can continuously and effectively create new kinetic energy for the national economy.

Compared with shed reform, the renovation project of old residential areas is more efficient. A number of housing enterprises told Southern Weekend that the average renovation period of a shed renovation project is five years, and owners and housing enterprises are often deadlocked because of disputes over demolition compensation. The old reform can generally be completed within half a year, and the marginal benefit is obvious. By filling the "short board" of service facilities, residents' consumption can be effectively stimulated and expanded.

In order to cope with the tide of old reform, a Guangzhou real estate agent told Southern Weekend reporter that many apartments newly built by his company after 2000 are also taking the opportunity to provide preferential activities such as renovation of landscape balcony railings, elevator maintenance, and air-conditioning shutter reinforcement to attract owners to participate at their own expense.

1.7 million old residential areas need renovation, with a total investment of 4 trillion. where is the money to come from?

Yan Huang, vice minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said at the briefing that the project will be promoted in a coordinated manner with "the owners as the main body, the community as the leading factor, the government as the leading factor and the support of all parties", and the renovation funds will be raised through various channels such as "residents' contribution, social support and financial subsidies".

At present, local finance is the main source of funds for the old reform.

The Three-year Action Plan for the Renovation of Old Residential Quarters (20 18-2020) published on September 23rd, 2008 in Hebei Province shows that there are 5,739 total tasks for the renovation of residential quarters in three years, and * * * needs renovation funds12.96 billion yuan. Among them, the society can raise about165438+700 million yuan; Municipal franchise units can raise about 650 million yuan; The original property unit of the community can raise about 520 million yuan; Individual residents can raise about 560 million yuan. The remaining 1 1.23 billion yuan was raised by the municipal and county finance.

According to the business report of 265438+20th century, an old residential area in a county in eastern Hebei Province has carried out an energy-saving renovation project, including the external wall insulation layer, replacing the previous steel windows with aluminum alloy windows, with a cost of 4,000 yuan per household, while local residents said, "It is said that the financial funds will subsidize half".

An owner of Angong Community in Tianfu New District of Chengdu told Southern Weekend reporter that in 2065438+early 2009, the elevator installation of five six-story houses in his community was completed, and the capital contribution arrangement was based on 3,000 yuan on the second floor, with an increase of 2,000 yuan on each floor. According to the community industry committee, most of the expenses have been subsidized by the government.

Lin Jiaxing, deputy general manager of Guangzhou World Bank, told Southern Weekend reporter that the renovation of old residential areas in Guangzhou is mostly a social welfare act, and the renovation funds mainly come from the special financial guarantee funds of cities and districts every year, and the urban level is arranged according to the ratio of 8: 2. Guangzhou World Bank has participated in many large-scale old district reconstruction projects in Guangzhou, including Tietong Textile Industrial Park, Liwan Guanggang and Guangzhou Shipyard Area, Tianhe Guangnitrogen Area, etc. In the form of real estate consultants.

"China still has about 500 billion housing maintenance funds, which should be actively played." Chou Baoxing wrote an article.

However, Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, told the media that once the renovation of old residential areas is implemented on a large scale, the government's financial resources are limited, and it is unrealistic to rely solely on subsidies.

The rise of shed reform depends on the creation of PSL by 20 14 central bank. In the form of PSL, the central bank gives policy banks such as CDB, and then they give special loans to local governments, thus giving monetary subsidies to shantytown residents. After the local government demolishes and sells land, it repays the bank loan and the bank repays the central bank, forming a closed loop of capital flow.

At the executive meeting in the State Council, it was mentioned for the first time to increase financial support for the old reform, and it was made clear that in 20 19, central subsidy funds would be arranged for the transformation of old urban communities, and financial institutions and localities were encouraged to actively explore.

"Financing must be sustainable." Yan Huang said, one prerequisite is not just investment without turnover, and the other is risk prevention to prevent local debts from increasing. Under these two premises, how to introduce specialized and market-oriented companies to operate can be discussed.

Lin Jiaxing, deputy general manager of Guangzhou World Bank, stressed that the government is promoting more social capital to participate in renovation projects with certain returns and corporate brand influence, and exploring the mechanism for residents, employers and the government to participate together. "Yongqingfang in Guangzhou is a good sample."

Vanke won the bid for the old renovation project of Yongqingfang in the middle section of Enning Road in Guangzhou on 20 16. This area is one of the centralized jurisdictions of dilapidated houses in Guangzhou, with both old houses and buildings with unique history and culture. On the basis of protecting local characteristic buildings, Vanke participated in the planning and operation of the whole area. In addition to transforming the old district, it will also be turned into a cultural and creative complex project integrating youth apartments, joint offices and cultural and creative blocks.

Qiao, executive director of Colliers International South China Consulting Service Department and expert of Guangdong Sanjiu Reconstruction Association, also approved the project. "For example, suppose that the residents of the old community rent out 30 yuan/square meter, Vanke uses 50 yuan's unit price to renovate and contract, gives it to its own long-term rental apartment brand Apollo, and rents it out with 80 yuan. This is a model." He told Southern Weekend reporter.

However, the problem of profit remains to be solved. Chen Ho Bridge said that in order to promote the renovation of old residential areas on a large scale, housing enterprises need to find a sustainable profit model in the market, otherwise it will only be a "hard bone".

Take Yongqingfang as an example. Vanke only has the right to operate for 15 years. It has not been decided whether to return the right to operate to the government or continue to explore new cooperation modes after the expiration. In an interview with the media, the person in charge of the project bluntly said that the total investment of the renovation plan of Yongqingfang is about 654.38 billion yuan, and the payback period of the construction cost is as long as 654.38+02.5 years. The real profit time is less than 3 years.

In Shenzhen, this "Vanke model" has also hit a wall. According to a recent report by Interface News, an insider close to Vanke's "Wancun Plan" revealed that Vanke is negotiating with the landlord who has signed a contract for the renovation of villages in Shenzhen for breach of contract and voluntarily giving up some of the contracted houses.

"Wancun Plan" is the strategic layout of Vanke's micro-reconstruction project in Shenzhen village. Since 20 17, Vanke has entered hundreds of villages in Shenzhen to lease and transform these old communities into its long-term apartment brand "Apollo", with an average lease term of 10- 12. This model not only responds to the policy of transforming old residential areas, but also builds a business model of revitalizing existing assets.

However, Vanke's active default means that the profit may still be less than expected and a benign investment cycle cannot be formed. In response to this rumor, Vanke Shenzhen Company has responded to the media that it has indeed encountered practical difficulties in the promotion process.

It is worth noting that more and more property companies owned by real estate enterprises have been split and listed, which shows the importance of residential property as a consumption scene. In the process of rebuilding old residential areas in the future, it may be a goal for housing enterprises to join the old reform and realize the secondary development and utilization of properties in the areas of old-age care, medical care, food assistance and cleaning.