How about Chineydy headlights?

I. Introduction of the Company

(I) Main business of the company

The company focuses on research and development; D. lamps and lanterns for automobiles (mainly buses); D, which designs, manufactures and sells, is one of the major manufacturers and design scheme providers of automobile lighting assemblies in China. Its products mainly include car headlights, rear combination lights, fog lights, daytime running lights, indoor lights and atmosphere lights. Customers include FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC-Volkswagen, SAIC-GM, Daimler, BMW, GM, FAW Toyota, GAC Toyota, Dongfeng Nissan, GAC Honda, Changan Mazda, FAW Hongqi, FAW Car, faw liberation, Geely Automobile, SAIC-GM-Wuling, GAC Passenger Car and Chery Automobile.

The development of China automobile market has a great influence on the automobile lamps industry. The car lights produced by the company are mainly used for new car matching, and the growth of the company's customer output is the main factor to promote the company's performance development. The periodicity of the company's auto parts industry is basically synchronized with the auto industry. At present, the technical trend of headlights tends to be electronic and intelligent. Headlights gradually evolved into matrix LED, ADB, and high-definition ADB to realize information exchange and interaction between people and vehicles.

(II) Company development strategy

In terms of lighting business, the company will continue to consolidate its competitive advantage and establish a leading position in the passenger car lighting market by deepening existing customer relationships, optimizing product structure, upgrading advanced lighting technology, exploring high-end customers and international markets, increasing production capacity and optimizing layout. Ensure the stable development of the lighting industry.

In terms of automotive electronics business, the company relies on the existing automotive research and development and automotive electronics research and development to promote automotive electronics and lighting research and development; R&D center construction, to build automotive electronics R&D center. D comprehensive platform, improve software and hardware facilities, and accelerate the introduction and cultivation of high-quality R&D talents; D talents, and strive to promote the development of R&D in the direction of cutting-edge headlight technology and automotive electronics technology; D process, actively seek and acquire relevant companies in a timely manner, and pay equal attention to endogenous development and extension expansion.

Second, the stage of the industry.

In the early days, naked headlights such as kerosene headlights and acetylene headlights were used, which had poor lighting effect and needed to carry fuel, which was extremely inconvenient to use. Halogen headlights came out in the 1970s, and their lighting effect was far better than open-flame headlights, and their cost was low, so they quickly became the main light source in car headlights. With the further upgrading of vehicle-mounted light source technology, xenon lamps, LEDs and other vehicle-mounted light sources with better lighting effect and lower energy consumption are gradually applied to mid-to-high-end vehicles, and begin to penetrate into low-end vehicles.

With the release of the Outline of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and the Outline of the Vision Plan for 2035, the development of new energy vehicles and intelligent networked vehicles has been listed as key scientific and technological projects to enhance the core competitiveness of manufacturing industry, which not only highlights the position and role of new energy vehicles and intelligent networked vehicles in national innovation actions, but also clarifies the strategic breakthrough direction of independent innovation in the automobile industry.

With the mass production of smart cars, lights will turn from traditional functional safety components to electronic and intelligent, which is likely to become one of the main ways in the future automotive interaction field. Whether in the era of unmanned driving or semi-automatic driving, car lights are gradually showing the important information communication functions of human-vehicle interaction, vehicle-vehicle interaction and vehicle-road interaction.

At present, the main barriers to entry in China automobile lamp industry are: customer resource barriers, technical barriers, cost barriers and quality certification barriers.

Three. Market size of the industry

According to the production and sales data released by China Automobile Industry Association in 2020, the production and sales of automobiles in China in 2020 will be 25.23 million and 253 1 10,000, respectively, down by 2.0% and 1.9% year-on-year, and the production and sales will continue to rank first in the world.

The demand for car lights is influenced by many factors, such as car output, car ownership, upgrading and consumption upgrading. With the continuous improvement of domestic consumption level, the penetration rate of domestic automobile lamps is also increasing. In 20 19, the average price of automobile lamps was 193 1 set, and the market size of automobile lamps in China was 49.667 billion yuan.

According to statistics, in 20 18, the global automobile sales reached 94.79 million, down -0.5% year-on-year, and the trend gradually stabilized. In the same year, the global car lamp market sales were about 31700 million USD, up 4.6% year-on-year.

At present, the mainstream headlights of domestic cars are halogen and xenon headlights, and the penetration rate of LED headlights is about 10%- 15%. Because domestic consumers' preference for LED headlights is obviously higher than that of foreign countries, many new models listed since 20 18 are equipped with LED headlights, such as Sagitar, Magotan and Corolla. 20 18 years ago, the domestic market size of headlights was about 47.6 billion yuan. In the future, with the increasing popularity of LED headlights and LED taillights, the configuration rate of smart headlights such as AFS and ADB will be improved. It is estimated that the domestic car lamp market is expected to reach 64.3 billion yuan in 2023.

According to statistics, the total market of empty headlights in 20 18 is about 24.87438+0 billion yuan. There is a vast space for industrial development.

In 20 18, the domestic market scale of passenger car headlights LED lamps increased to 9.254 billion yuan, and it is estimated that the domestic market scale of LED lamps will be about1231800 million yuan in 2020. LED lamps will become an important growth point for future lamp enterprises.

In terms of permeability, according to statistics, the permeability of domestic LED headlights in 20 16 years is about 10%- 15%. In 2020, the penetration rate of LED headlights is expected to reach 28%.

Four. Industry competition pattern

The market share of automobile lighting industry in China is mainly concentrated in a few leading industries. Due to the strict requirements on the quality of automobile parts, large automobile manufacturers usually choose mature and stable suppliers, which leads to a large market share of a few leading enterprises in the automobile lighting industry. With the development of the "new four modernizations" in the automobile industry, enterprises from other fields cross the border into the automobile lamp enterprises, and at the same time, there are more and more cross-industry cooperation among automobile lamp enterprises, and the competition in the industry will be further intensified.

International car lamp giants and foreign car companies set up factories in China to manufacture supporting facilities for China joint venture OEM. China's domestic market is also monopolized by these giants' factories in China. The main manufacturers are Shanghai Xiaoci, Guangzhou Stanley, Changchun Haila and Valeo Guanghua.

Compared with domestic enterprises, Chineydy is the only enterprise with significant scale advantages. Domestic-funded automobile lamps enterprises include Nanning Liao Wang, Zhejiang Jiali, Anrui Optoelectronics, Zhejiang Tianxian, Jiangsu Tong Ming and Yishan Automobile Lamps. Judging from the company's income scale, production capacity scale and the number of employees, Chineydy has a significant scale advantage.

At present, the existing automobile lamp manufacturers in China are mainly small and medium-sized enterprises; There are not many large-scale enterprises, and the nature is mainly joint venture, sole proprietorship and private operation. These three types of enterprises occupy the vast majority of the market. At present, the market structure of car lamps: two worlds, three camps. The two worlds are middle and high-grade joint venture brands and low-grade independent brands, and the three camps are foreign-funded enterprises, leading domestic-funded enterprises entering joint ventures, low-end independent brands and domestic-funded enterprises in the maintenance market.

By the end of fiscal year 20 18, the top five suppliers in the global automotive lighting industry include: Xiaoou, Hella, Ma Ruili, Valeo and Stanley, with a combined market share of nearly 60%.

In 20 17, among the top five car lamp business revenues in the world, Xiaoou earned $6.62 billion, Stellar earned $3.82 billion, Magnet Ma Ruili earned $3.65438+0.4 billion, Hella earned $2.96 billion and Valeo earned $2.85 billion.

There is a certain factional tie-up between the car lamp suppliers of domestic car companies, but there are still a large number of car lamp suppliers who are more open-minded, especially in the case of providing low-tech taillights and small lights, and the competition among car lamp suppliers is fierce. At present, there are many private independent automobile lamp enterprises in China. As a leading enterprise in technology and scale, Chineydy Co., Ltd. is expected to cut into the corresponding supporting car enterprises and enhance the overall concentration of the industry.

Domestically, Huayu Vision is still the largest vehicle lamp supplier in China, with a revenue of 654.38+0.38 billion yuan in 2065.438+08. Haila, Xiaoou, Stanray, Chineydy and Valeo are still in the second echelon with a market share of 9- 12%. With quick response and cost-effective products, it is expected that Chineydy will continue to occupy the market share of Hella, Stanray and Valeo.

Verb (abbreviation of verb) enterprise moat

(1) Customer's trusted partner.

The company always insists on providing customers with first-class products with first-class quality, first-class service and first-class efficiency. As a representative enterprise of independent brand lamps, it has accumulated rich customer resources including European, American, Japanese and domestic brand vehicle manufacturers, and maintained close cooperation with customers. It is a trusted partner of many excellent vehicle manufacturers in China.

(2) The ability of synchronous design and development of vehicle lamps is mature.

Suppliers need to participate in the simultaneous development of new models in automobile factories. At present, the company has design and development capabilities including national recognized laboratories such as car lamp products, car lamp electronics, special tooling and molds. , and formed a complete independent research and development system, which can respond quickly and meet customer needs.

(3) strict cost control system

With the upgrading of domestic automobile consumption, the competition among automobile manufacturers is becoming increasingly fierce, and the cost pressure is increasing. The company is in R & amp；; D, manufacturing, management and other aspects have cost advantages, which is conducive to the company to seize the market opportunity of new car development and vehicle modification localization, strive for more projects and further develop new customers, and further optimize and upgrade the product structure and customer structure.

Intransitive verbs of enterprise leadership team

Seven. corporate culture

entrust

The light of the stars brightens the world.

spirit

Unity, hard work, honesty and innovation.

sight

Create a competitive advantage of high quality, high efficiency and high technology, and become a Zhuoyue Xingyu with employees' trust, customer satisfaction and social responsibility.

Core values

Family, love, gratitude and responsibility

Eight. abstract

The development of China's automobile market has a great influence on the automobile lamp industry, and the periodicity of the automobile parts industry is basically synchronous with that of the automobile industry. Xenon lamp, LED and other light sources with better lighting effect and lower energy consumption are gradually applied to mid-to-high-end models, and begin to penetrate into low-end models. With the continuous improvement of domestic consumption level, the penetration rate of domestic automobile lamps is also increasing. Because domestic consumers' preference for LED headlights is obviously higher than that of foreign countries, LED headlights will become an important growth point for future car lamp enterprises, and there is a broad development space between industry and aviation. The market share of automobile lighting industry in China is mainly concentrated in a few industry leaders, and Chineydy occupies a dominant position, which has a significant scale advantage. It is expected to cut into the corresponding supporting automobile enterprises, enhance the overall concentration of the industry, and further occupy the market share of Hella, Stanley and Valeo.

Possible risks

(1) Fluctuation risk of automobile industry; (2) Risk of technology research and development and product development; (3) the risk of customer concentration; (4) the risk of gross profit margin decline; (5) Risks in the implementation of projects under construction; (6) managing risks; (7) Major uncertain risks, such as the new crown pneumonia epidemic.

Financial statement analysis

1. Look at the total assets and judge the strength and expansion ability of the company.

Total assets in 202011400 million, which is relatively large in the same industry; The growth rate of total assets is greater than 10%, and the company has expanded with good growth.

2. Look at the asset-liability ratio and know the debt risk of the company.

The asset-liability ratio is above 40% and below 60%. The debt risk is relatively small, but under special circumstances, the debt repayment crisis may still occur.

3. Look at interest-bearing liabilities and quasi-monetary funds to eliminate debt risks.

The difference between quasi-monetary funds and interest-bearing liabilities is greater than 0, and there is no debt repayment pressure.

4. Look at the difference between "accounts received in advance" and "accounts received in advance" to understand the company's competitive advantage.

The difference between advance payment and advance payment is greater than 0, so the company has strong competitiveness and the ability to eat at both ends.

5. Look at accounts receivable and contract assets to understand the company's product competitiveness.

The proportion of (contract assets of accounts receivable) to total assets is stable, lower than 10%. It is not difficult to sell the company's products, and the accounts receivable within one year account for 98.8%, which is very likely to be recovered.

6. Look at the fixed assets and understand the cost of maintaining the company's competitiveness.

Fixed assets account for less than 40% of total assets, belonging to light asset company, and the cost of maintaining sustainable competitiveness is relatively low.

7. Look at the investment assets and judge the concentration of the company.

The investment assets account for less than 10% of the total assets, focusing on the main business and being an excellent company.

8. Look at the inventory to understand the lightning risk of the company's future performance.

Inventory accounts for a high proportion of total assets, mainly inventory goods, but the company's projects are all won by bidding. The company signed a technical development agreement with the vehicle manufacturer, and the project was officially launched. In the process of mass production, according to the production and sales situation of vehicle manufacturers, the production and supply of car lamps were adjusted appropriately. So, the problem is not big.

9. Look at goodwill to know the lightning risk of the company's future performance.

The proportion of goodwill in total assets is less than 10%, and there is no risk of lightning strike for goodwill.

10. Look at the operating income to understand the company's industry status and growth.

The growth rate of operating income is greater than 10%, which shows that the company is growing rapidly and has a good prospect.

1. Look at the gross profit margin and understand the competitiveness and risks of the company's products.

Gross profit margin is steadily increasing, but it is still below 40%. Low gross profit margin indicates that the competitiveness of the company's products or services is poor; The fluctuation range of gross profit margin is basically within 10%. Excellent company.

12. Look at the period expense rate to understand the company's cost control ability.

During the period, the proportion of expense ratio to gross profit rate decreased steadily, and it has been below 40% in the past two years. With good cost control ability, it is an excellent enterprise.

13. Look at the sales expense rate to understand the difficulty of the company's product sales.

The sales expense ratio is lower than 15%, so its products are easy to sell and the sales risk is relatively small.

14. Look at the main profit and understand the profitability and profit quality of the company's main business.

The profit rate of the main business has steadily increased to more than 15%, and the profitability of the main business is strong; The profit from the main business accounts for more than 80% of the operating profit, and the profit quality is high.

15. Look at the net profit to know the company's operating performance and gold content.

In recent five years, the average net profit-cash ratio has exceeded 100%, which is very good.

16. Look at the net profit returned to the mother to understand the overall profitability and sustainability of the company.

The return on net assets has steadily increased, and has remained above 15% for the past two years. Excellent company; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company is above 65,438+00%, indicating that the company is growing rapidly.

17. Look at the cash paid for the purchase of fixed assets, intangible assets and other long-term assets to understand the growth potential of the company.

The cash paid for construction accounts for 3%-60% of the net cash flow generated by operating activities, and the company has great growth potential and relatively low risk.

18. Look at the cash paid by dividends, profits or interest to understand the company's cash dividends.

The net cash flow generated by cash/operating activities that pay dividends, profits or interest is mostly 20% to 70%, and the long-term sustainability of dividends is strong.

Judging from the financial data, this is a very good company, even a little beyond my expectation. The most important thing is that several important indicators are steadily improving and the future is worth looking forward to.

Management evaluation

1. Reasonable price-earnings ratio

Chineydy stock has two moats; The asset-liability ratio is less than 50%, the cash content of net profit is more than 100%, and the reasonable price-earnings ratio is 30 times.

2. Net profit

In 20 15, the net profit returned to the mother was 293 million yuan, and in 2020, it was1160 million yuan, with a compound growth rate of 3 1.68%. The net profit of returning to the mother will increase by 30% in the next three years. The company's total share capital is 276 million shares.

It is estimated that the net profit returned to the mother in 2023:11.60 billion yuan ×1.3 ×/kloc-0 = 2.549 billion yuan.

Reasonable market value in 2023: 2.549 billion yuan × 30 = 76.47 billion yuan.

Reasonable price in 2023: 76.47 billion yuan ÷ 276 million shares =277.07 yuan/share.

Good price: 277.07 yuan/share ÷2= 138.53 yuan/share

Risk: The above analysis is only for sharing and communication, not as any investment advice, and the operational risk is at your own risk.

Million car purchase subsidy