What are the signs before the main force ships? Understand it, follow the dealer step by step, and don’t suffer any losses

Marketers are a special group in the stock market. They have strong financial strength, well-informed sources of information and a professional trading team. The possibility and range of profits in the stock market are ordinary. Retail investors cannot compare. Therefore, most of the stocks that market makers intervene in will have a relatively large increase.

Because of the strong power of bankers, many retail investors will choose to pay attention to the trends of bankers when trading, and decide their own operation methods based on the direction of the bankers' operations. This is a very good idea, but in actual transactions, investors will find that the ideal is very full and the reality is very skinny. The core of the banker's operation itself is to deceive retail investors, so they will deliberately set up long traps in the market to lure retail investors into the trap. If ordinary retail investors do not have excellent skills in following the banker and blindly follow the banker to buy, they will inevitably suffer huge losses.

However, bankers are also investors in this market and must abide by the trading principles in this market. Investors can first have a comprehensive understanding of the banker and understand the deceptions commonly used by the banker; then they can understand the banker's trading objectives, trading techniques and market characteristics at every step of the entire process; finally, they can formulate a reasonable follow-up plan from their own perspective. Banker strategy.

Understand the relationship between shipments and stock price fluctuations

The reason why many investors are "washed out" by the main force during the washout is because on the one hand, investors lack patience, and on the other hand, they are lack of patience. On the one hand, there is also a certain misunderstanding about the main shipments - that is, it is believed that the main shipments will inevitably cause a sharp drop in the stock price immediately. This view is correct in the long run, because once the main force starts shipping, it means that the main force's chips begin to decrease, while the retail investors' chips begin to increase, and because retail investors cannot form a joint force, it is difficult to maintain the stock price at a high level.

The development of anything has a process. The main force’s shipment is often a long-lasting process. The stronger the market control ability, that is, the stronger the main force’s early fund-raising efforts, the longer its shipment time will be. In order to sell most of the chips in their hands at a good price, the main force will continue to control the trend of individual stocks for a long period of time after the shipment starts. When the stock price is rising, if the general trend is good, the main force is likely to distribute cash - part of the chips in advance. Investors who do not analyze the specific reasons and do not consider the actual situation will rush to sell out as soon as they discover this kind of distribution behavior of the main force. If you have chips in hand, you are likely to miss out on the great market trends that follow.

Therefore, for ordinary investors, if they find a large selling order in the market, they don’t have to worry too much about whether it is the main shipment. At this time, they should pay close attention to the cumulative increase of individual stocks. How much money may the main force accumulate in the early stage? If the cumulative increase of individual stocks is not large, and the main force has accumulated sufficient funds in the early stage, even if this large selling order comes from the main force selling, it is likely that the main force is reducing its position. While strategic position reduction is being carried out, the stock price may still perform better in the future.

Selection of shipment timing

Every aspect of the main banker's process must choose the appropriate operation timing. Similarly, shipments are no exception. Choose a good time to ship. It can enable the main force to do twice the result with half the effort. So, when will the main force usually choose to ship?

When bad news occurs: Bad news will make investors who buy the stock uneasy, which may cause the stock price to fall. Generally speaking, the main force will try its best to ship before the bad announcement. However, since news often appears in the market that is unexpected by the main players, sudden bad news from many listed companies often makes the main players who have entered the stock very passive, because at this time, the main players are likely to have no intention to protect the market due to insufficient fund-raising efforts. . At this time, the main force may take advantage of the bad news to sell some chips. This kind of shipment is mostly due to the need to strategically reduce positions. As for how many goods will be sold, it depends on the position of the main force.

When cashing in on good news: Taking advantage of the good market atmosphere created by the release of good news to ship is a common trading technique used by the main force.

We have said that the main force has hidden information channels, so it can often be one step ahead of the market, so that it can raise the stock price before the listed company releases good news, and carry out large-scale shipments when the good news is actually released.

When rumors increase: "Rumors" mostly appear in theme stocks. For theme stocks that have been significantly raised by the main force, the main force will let public opinion take the lead before shipping, and use market rumors to increase the stock's price. The subject matter is hot again. Although market investors found that this stock had a certain increase, due to the attractive news, they began to intervene driven by speculative psychology, while the main force quietly began to ship.

When reaching the target level: The long-term main force's speculation on individual stocks is mostly planned in advance, and the long-term main force has higher requirements for the overall increase of individual stocks. This is related to the greater strength of the long-term main force's position holdings. As for how high the stock price will be raised, there is usually an expectation in advance. When the stock price reaches the target level, most stocks will be shipped as planned. Due to the characteristics of fast in and fast out, the short-term main force may not have too high requirements for the overall increase of individual stocks. Generally, it is about following the trend. When the market is good, it can significantly increase the stock price, and when the market is average or poor, it can increase the stock price significantly. Then leave when you see a profit. For retail investors, it is generally impossible to know the target price of individual stocks being speculated by the main force, but the shipping behavior of the main force can be interpreted through information such as market size and trading volume.

Five major characteristics of the shipping stage

Zhuanggu usually has the following five characteristics during the shipping stage:

① When the price of a certain stock on a single day The increase was astonishing, the intraday oscillations intensified, there were more and more floating chips, and the trading volume continued to hit a record high, indicating that the market makers were no longer able to control the market and were about to ship.

② The price of a certain stock is at a high level after the increase, and good news continues to appear, but the stock price does not rise but falls, indicating that the market makers are eager to ship at this time.

③When a stock moves flat on the moving average, the stock price falls and continuously falls below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and develops downward in the form of a negative decline, this is the mentality of market makers using retail investors to rush for a rebound. goods.

④The stock price slowly falls after the dealer's rapid increase, or stays near the moving average for a long time, and the trading volume gradually increases. This is the dealer's use of the moving average system to distribute.

⑤ The stock rise lasts for a short time, and the trading volume is basically composed of reverse trading. However, when it falls, the trading volume gradually increases, accompanied by large-scale selling orders, indicating that the dealer is shipping.

See through the dealer's shipping methods

There are generally two ways for dealers to ship, which are to induce more shipments and to pull up and fall back shipments

1. , Inducing more shipments

After the stock price rises to a high level and forms a top, as the dealer's shipments continue, the number of investors willing to enter the market becomes smaller and smaller. In this case, the trading volume will become sluggish due to the decrease in buying orders. This change in the market will have a huge hindering effect on the dealer's shipping operation. If the dealer cannot ship smoothly, what should the dealer do? What to do?

Why does the buying order decrease at the top? This is because after investors see that the stock price has risen to a certain extent, it has formed a stagflation trend at a high level. At this time, they will have a cautious attitude towards the stock. Some investors have judged that the top has been reached, and some have invested Investors are waiting for the stock price to adjust before buying. No matter what, the number of investors who are willing to buy stocks at all costs as they did during the rise has obviously decreased.

In this case, the dealer cannot continue to suppress the stock price, because the lower the stock price falls, the fewer investors will dare to enter the market to receive the goods, which will scare away investors outside the market. Therefore, only by raising the stock price again can the dealer effectively attract investors to step in to pick up the goods.

The way to induce long shipments is that after the stock price of the first shipment is adjusted and the trading volume shrinks, the market maker artificially raises the stock price again, making investors think that the current position is not the top, but just It is an adjustment, which triggers the intervention of off-market buying. By rising, the dealer can successfully complete another shipment operation.

The trend of inducing bullish shipments is often relatively hidden. If investors only analyze from the K-line, it is difficult to accurately see the dealer’s operational intentions. However, combined with the analysis of trading volume, the dealer’s shipments The operation becomes clear at a glance, because if the dealer wants to ship, it must trigger an amplification of trading volume, as shown in Figure 1.1.

After the stock price of Beihai Port (000582) hit the bottom, it started a continuous upward trend driven by the increase in trading volume. After the stock price rose to a high level, the market makers began to actively ship goods. operate. The top K-line shape of the first round was a small arc top, and as the dealers shipped goods, the stock price also showed a continuous downward trend.

When the stock price formed a top for the first time, the trading volume became smaller and smaller, and the continuous shrinking of volume energy showed that it was becoming more and more difficult for the dealers to ship goods in the market. Without a large number of investors, How could the banker sell the huge amount of stocks in his hands?

After a period of shock, the market makers had no choice but to continue to push up the stock price and conduct bullish operations. As can be seen from Figure 9.21, as the stock price continues to rise, the trading volume begins to increase moderately. This shows that as long as the stock price rises, investors will follow suit and buy. Only a rise can attract investors' buying.

With the emergence of a daily limit big positive line, the trading volume has increased sharply, and the volume energy has hit a recent high. This change in volume energy reflects to investors that the banker's funds have begun to flow again. Shipped. Those who think that the emergence of the daily limit board represents the beginning of a new round of rising prices are completely wrong. If you perform long operations, you will be trapped on a high hill by the dealer. Therefore, for the big positive line, we must look at it based on its position and trading volume, and analyze it from the perspective of the banker, because bookmakers often use obvious rising signals such as the big positive line to deceive retail investors, so as to achieve the purpose of shipping at a high level. .

2. Pull-up and fall-back shipments

When a bull market is formed, because individual stocks rise very fast, and the increase in stock prices is also very huge, bookmakers often perform The advantage of this shipping method is that it can recover a large amount of funds in the shortest time. However, the sharp drop in stock prices will also cause a problem, that is, after the stock prices continue to fall, buying orders will disappear. Although the banker has recovered most of the funds, there are still some stocks left in hand, so how should these stocks be sold? The dealer can only adopt the pull-up and fall-back shipping operation.

Pulling up and falling back to ship means that after the market maker carries out large-volume selling operations at a high level, as the stock price continues to weaken, the number of investors' buying orders begins to decrease. In this case , the market maker needs to stop continuing to sell down and let the stock price form the illusion of rebound, thereby once again stimulating investors to enter the market in order to achieve the purpose of continuing to ship. Although the stock price seems to be showing signs of rebound, the extent of the rebound is often extremely limited because the market makers are still continuing to ship goods, so the stock price is unlikely to form a large increase at this time.

Pull-up and pull-back shipments are very hidden, because when the dealer ships, the stock price has already fallen to a certain extent. Theoretically, the formation of a rebound is also a normal phenomenon. However, due to the extremely generous profits of the bookmakers, no real rebound will be launched at this time. If you only analyze it from the K line, you will often fall into wrong thinking, leading to losses.

So at this time, what we have to do is to carefully analyze the changes in trading volume. As long as we analyze the changes in trading volume, we can avoid buying at the position where the dealer is shipping. As shown in Figure 1.2.

The stock price of Xindu Hotel (00003) started to rise from about 2 yuan, all the way up to 32.09 yuan, and during the final rise, the dealer closed 10 positive lines in a row, and the trading volume also showed a The enlarged state shows that the main force is going long in the market.

Just imagine, if there were no bookmakers operating, could the stock price have such a strong trend?

After the continuous rise, the stock price was already at a very high position, and the dealers began to ship vigorously, starting with a propeller. This was a very obvious peaking signal, indicating that the main force began to ship at the top. The goods are shipped, and then the stock price continues to fall to the limit, that is, Zhuang Li is trying his best to ship, which is a selling style.

After continuous lowering, the stock price showed a long cross line, which indicates that the stock price has begun to stabilize. Many investors thought that the stock price had fallen so much that there would definitely be a rebound, so they entered the market and started hunting for the bottom. Maybe short-term experts can make some profits here, but they will be trapped if they are not careful, because the rebound in the following days is very weak, and the dealers use the rebound to ship goods. Just imagine that the main force is shipping, how can you make a profit when you enter the market?

After several days of sideways fluctuations, the stock price once again formed a downward trend. During the sideways trading process, the intensively enlarged trading volume shows that the dealer's shipping effect is very good. Although they were not able to completely ship the goods at a high level, because they sold the stocks at the waist position and in a very short period of time, it did not have much impact on the bankers. It was just a reduction in profits, because the main cost of building a position was very high. Low. It is by taking advantage of investors' psychology of buying the bottom and rushing for the rebound that the market makers can successfully ship the goods.

How to judge the banker's shipping point

The banker has a target point for pulling up, which is the banker's shipping point. How does the banker set the shipping point? It mainly depends on three factors: shareholding cost and shareholding volume, the size of the follow-up market and historical trading volume distribution

(1) The market maker’s shareholding cost and shareholding volume

This is the most basic factor in determining the pull-up point. The banker's lifting point can be calculated by the following formula: Target point = shareholding cost × (1 shareholding as a percentage of the total circulation × 2) For example, if the banker's shareholding cost is 8 yuan, the shareholding ratio is 50, then its lowest target point should be 8 x (1 50x2) = 16 yuan.

If the shareholding ratio is 60, the lowest target point can be calculated to be 17.6 yuan. The market maker's goal of raising the price is related to the shareholding ratio. The greater the shareholding ratio, the longer the process of shipping is, and a higher point must be used to maintain it. The "2" in the formula is a market "confidence coefficient", which is not fixed at 2. If the market image of the stock is good and the shareholders have sufficient confidence, the "confidence coefficient" can also be increased to 3, or even more. In the actual combat in the past two years, the actual lifting point of the banker is often higher than the minimum target point calculated according to this formula. 2 is chosen here because under normal circumstances, the banker's profit is 50% of the entire increase. If it is lower than 2, the banker may not have much profit.

(2) The strength of the following market

The strength of the following market is the most critical factor that determines the banker's target point. The minimum target is not the final target, and sometimes the dealer cannot determine it in advance. It depends on the situation of following the trend in the market. The dealer has been testing the strength of the follow-up market in the process of pulling up, and hopes that the strength will become stronger as it goes up. If the following trend is ideal, the dealer can successfully sell off most of the chips within a few days. At this time, the daily K-line is a negative line with a long upper shadow, a huge amount is released, and the head feature is obvious. If the market maker has brought the stock price to the target point, but there are very few follow-up orders, it means that the market has been indifferent to the rise of the stock. At this time, the market maker has no choice but to increase the cost of establishing the market, use other means to attract the market's attention, or manipulate the stock price to fall again to build momentum. , or continue to pull up.

(3) Distribution of historical trading volume

Bookmakers must consider the distribution of historical trading volume when formulating target points. Especially in the process of sucking in enough goods at the low level to pull up, if there is a large amount of historical hold-up at the high level, the bookmaker needs to take it seriously. If the banker has high ambitions and deep pockets, and will definitely break through the historical high, then the banker will have to consider how to resolve the large number of hold-ups, and the most effective way is to shake the position in this area. If the banker does not have enough financial resources and does not want to fight a protracted war, then his target point for pulling up will generally not be set above the price of the hold-up plate.

How to distinguish between shock shipments and shock washouts

On the surface, shock shipments are no different from shock washouts. But in a practical sense, there are essential differences between the two. First of all, we make a detailed distinction between the two:

(1) Although shock shipping and shock washing both use shock as a means, their purposes are completely different.

The purpose of shock shipping is to use shock means to cover up the traces of dealer distribution. On the one hand, the main purpose is to distribute the chips in hand, on the other hand, it must maintain a high popularity while distributing.

This is precisely because the dealer has the purpose of this kind of distribution. Therefore, from the market point of view, when the stock price fluctuates downward, the sell orders sold downward are continuous. Generally, the sell orders are relatively balanced and the transactions are completed. The quantity is relatively real, and they are basically sales orders with real swords and guns. And when it fluctuates downward to the bottom of the box or a lower price, there are still large selling orders.

After these lower selling orders are issued, the stock price is still soft. When the stock price fluctuates upward due to the improvement of the market or the announcement of good news, the buying orders are often not continuous. Or the continuous buying orders are very fake, and most of them are caused by the banker's long-term counter-attack. When the stock price fluctuates upward to a certain price, as long as the upper-level holding investors have a slight willingness to sell, the market makers are unwilling to engage in head-to-head confrontation, and the stock price will turn downward. In terms of overall performance, bookmakers basically play a short role.

Bulls are mostly the actions of small and medium investors who still have illusions about the market outlook. Judging from the trading volume at this time, because when the stock price falls, the trading and selling orders are balanced and continuous, which appears to be more organized and planned, so the market and time-sharing K-line form a trend of heavy volume when the stock price falls. When the stock price fluctuates upward, the bullish power basically comes from retail investors who still have illusions about the market outlook. Therefore, the buying orders when the stock price rises appear fragmented and chaotic, lacking concentration and planning. When the stock price rises, the trading volume shows the characteristics of shrinking when rising. This volume-price relationship, in which volume increases when it falls and shrinks when it rises, shows the short-selling mentality of bookmakers who are eager to get out.

(2) Although the shock wash also adopts the method of shock, because the main purpose of the banker is to promote the change of hands of profit-making orders, and because the banker is very confident about the trend of the stock price in the future, the banker will When oscillating upward (or other funds that have various relationships with the banker), buying orders are often continuous, concentrated and balanced.

Reflected in the market, a healthy trend of rising prices and increasing volumes is often formed. When the price fluctuates upward to the pressure-free zone, once there are fund holders who are willing to sell, the dealer dares to fight against the short sellers, thus showing the dealer's confidence.

On the contrary, when the stock price fluctuates downward, since most of the short-selling energy comes from retail investors who have uncertainty and doubts about the future trend of the stock price, when the stock price fluctuates downward, the sell order appears to be It is fragmented and chaotic, lacking planning, continuity and concentration. The trading volume is also falling in price and shrinking in volume on the market, indicating that investors are unwilling to sell at low levels.

When the stock price fluctuates downward to the bottom of the box or a lower level, there is usually no big selling order. Even if there are occasional large selling orders, the stock price should stop falling and rebound. The principle is to clean out the large investors who are not optimistic about the stock and then raise the stock price, so that they will not have the opportunity to buy at low prices, so that they can chase the high price and buy at the wrong pace, which will increase their investment costs and truly play the role of washing the market. . Another situation is to increase the volume to stop the decline.

In this situation, the dealer usually adopts large-volume downward countermeasures. There are many large selling orders, but the stock price does not fall. The main purpose is to intimidate those investors who are not determined and lure them out of the game. In such a situation, depending on the market situation, other small fund holders may make profits and exit, and other institutions may enter the market to change hands. These two points may seem subtle but are also very important. They are important signs that distinguish the dealer's shipment from the market wash. It is precisely because of the existence of the above situations that the trading volume of the shock wash appears on the K line and the time-sharing line, often forming a healthy trend of rising prices and increasing volume, falling prices and shrinking volumes, or increasing volume and stopping the decline. This is the result of the market maker's shock wash and An important sign of shock shipments.

(3) Compare and analyze the trading volume of the entire form. Due to the essential difference between the two, the trading volume of the shock wash pattern shrank rapidly during the evolution of the entire pattern, indicating that the floating chips on the market quickly decreased after the change of hands, and finally broke through upward, making the shock wash pattern a rising trend. Relay form. Shock shipping is just the opposite. Due to the dealer's distribution behavior, the floating chips of the entire form become heavier and heavier during the evolution process, and finally choose to break downward to make this shock evolve into a head form.