Who is the winner of the new round of exchange rate war triggered by the unexpected devaluation of RMB?

The RMB exchange rate continued to depreciate slightly. Judging from the weekly chart, it is the fifth consecutive week, and this trend is rare in recent years. As of the close of 65438+February 8, onshore RMB against the US dollar (CNY) fell by 0. 15% to 6.4 179, the lowest closing level in 20 1 1 year. Offshore RMB also fell by over 100 points, by 0. 19%, to 6.44438+0. Since August 1 1 RMB depreciated by 2% at one time, the global media have been amazed. So ... the most powerful weapon of international strategy-exchange rate, how does the United States operate? I made a comprehensive analysis of the three exchange rate wars since 197 1 in my latest book Lang Xianping said: Where are your investment opportunities?

Let's take a look at the depreciation of major international currencies against the US dollar from 20 14 to now. On the contrary, we are the strongest, with a depreciation rate of only 5.5%, and there is still a lot of room for depreciation.

It should be pointed out that you should not look at the exchange rate from simple import and export data, because the exchange rate is never determined by simple economic data, it is the most direct politics!

For example, 1997 Asian financial crisis, the United States let us depreciate, but we did not listen, and insisted on exchange rate stability to help Southeast Asian countries tide over the crisis. After 2003, with the development of China's economy and the expansion of opening to the outside world, the United States forced us to appreciate. The reason is that China exported a large number of cheap goods to the United States, which robbed the United States of employment opportunities and caused a huge trade deficit in the United States. The United States threatened to impose a 27.5% tariff on China's imports through legislation if the RMB did not appreciate by 30% ~ 40%. Finally, the RMB appreciated. Therefore, we must clearly know that the exchange rate is a tool in the hands of the United States and is in line with its own international strategy.

Since the compilation of 1973 in March, the US dollar index has been a barometer reflecting the US dollar exchange rate. As can be seen from the following figure, since the collapse of the 197 1 Bretton Woods system, the US dollar has experienced two complete rounds of fluctuations, and now it is the third round, and the US dollar index is on the rise. Don't think that this is a simple line, and behind every cycle is bloody plunder. Let me give you a detailed analysis of how these three rounds of exchange rate wars are operated.

The first round of exchange rate war (1971-1999) hit Latin American energy exporters hard.

In the first step (1971-1979), the US dollar depreciated by 27%, commodity prices rose, and the US dollar interest rate remained low.

From August 197 1, Nixon announced that the decoupling of the US dollar from gold ended at 1979, and the US dollar index depreciated by 27%. Prices of commodities such as oil, precious metals and basic raw materials soared. Take petroleum as an example, the crude oil of 1970 1.8 USD, 1974 10 USD, 1979/20 USD and 1980/30 USD. During this period, the Latin American economy, which mainly exported raw materials, was brilliant for a while. Take Mexico as an example. From 65438 to 0970, the average annual growth rate of Mexican economy reached 6.5%.

At the same time, the US dollar interest rate remains low. At the beginning of 1970, the US dollar interest rate was only 4%, and it was at 1 1.2% at 1979. Don't think that the interest rate of 1 1.2% is high. 1970, the highest inflation rate in the United States was 13.5%. In the same period, the interest rate of US Treasury bonds is 1 1%, which means that even if you buy bonds, you will lose 2.5% every year. It is precisely because of the low interest rate of the dollar that Latin American countries, led by Mexico, borrowed a lot of dollars, and the total debt of Mexico increased nearly 20 times during this period.

In the second step (1979- 1985), the dollar appreciated by 54%, interest rates rose sharply, commodity prices fell, and the dollar returned.

At the end of 1979, the US dollar index rose from 95 points to 1985 146 points, an increase of 54%. From 65438 to 0979, since Paul Volcker became chairman of the Federal Reserve, he kept raising interest rates. 1981June, the federal benchmark interest rate was raised to 2 1.5%. A year later,1July 1982, the inflation rate in the United States dropped from 13% to 4%. Commodity prices fell, and the price of crude oil fell from more than 30 dollars per barrel to 65438+ 10 dollars per barrel in 1986. At the same time, the dollar has returned on a large scale because the return of US stocks has been rising. The Dow Jones index rose from 850 points at the end of 1979 to 1500 points at the end of 0985 and reached 2000 points at the end of 1987.

The return of the US dollar and the drop in commodity prices have brought disastrous effects to Latin American countries. Mexico was the first country to have a crisis. 1982 August 12, Mexico was unable to repay its foreign debt of $26.83 billion due to insufficient foreign exchange reserves, and announced that it would close its foreign exchange market indefinitely. After Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Peru, Chile and other countries also encountered debt repayment difficulties and announced the termination or postponement of foreign debt repayment. This is the Latin American debt crisis that shocked the world financial industry at that time. At the end of 1982, the foreign debt balance of the whole Latin American region exceeded $300 billion, of which Argentina accounted for $93 billion. 1983, Argentina needs to use 54% of its exports of goods and services to pay foreign debt interest; Brazil needs 40%; Mexico needs 35%; Chile and Peru each need about 33%. Latin America has fallen into the famous "lost decade".

The third step (1985- 1999) prescribed privatization, and the dollar began to depreciate again.

1985 10 In order to solve the debt crisis in Latin America, US Treasury Secretary James Baker proposed the Baker Plan at the 40th annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank held in Seoul, South Korea. The plan requires Latin American countries to privatize state-owned enterprises in energy, railways, aviation, communications and other industries, privatize natural resources and infrastructure, and implement complete trade liberalization and financial liberalization. From 65438 to 0990, the U.S. government, IMF and the World Bank jointly implemented this measure by using loan conditions, forcing Latin American countries to carry out neo-liberal economic reforms.

Large-scale privatization of Latin American countries began. From 65438 to 0988, carlos salinas was elected as Mexican President, which first set off a wave of privatization. The new government auctioned state-owned enterprises such as hotels, aviation, steel and sugar. From 1990 to 1999, among the top 500 Latin American enterprises, the number of foreign-funded enterprises increased from 1990 to 230.

Let's take Argentina for example. 1989 before the reform, the Argentine government controlled major enterprises such as telecommunications, oil and banks. 10 years later, the Argentine government sold almost all state-owned enterprises in strategic industries, including oil and gas exploration, communications, electric power, public utilities and nuclear power plants, and even ports, docks, airports and railway stations. Only a few enterprises, such as national banks, mint and television stations, are still in the hands of the state. During the period of 1989- 1999, seven of the largest 10 enterprises in Argentina were controlled by multinational companies; Of the 65,438+000 large enterprises in China, only 7 are mainly owned by Arab countries. In 2000, transnational corporations controlled 90.4% of Argentina's total exports and 63.3% of its total imports. 1999, after 98.02% of the shares of Petroleum and Minerals Bureau, Argentina's largest state-owned enterprise, were sold to Repsol Oil Company of Spain, 90% of Argentina's fuel supply was in the hands of four foreign companies.

In the process of privatization, the social crisis in Latin America has deteriorated again and again. For example, after the privatization of water supply infrastructure in many countries, water prices have risen for 20 years in a row, and more than half of the residents can't afford daily water use.

The second exchange rate war (1986-200 1) hit the capital-importing countries.

In the first step (1986- 1996), the US dollar depreciated by 27%, the commodity prices were stable, and the US dollar interest rate was stable at around 4%.

From 1986, the US dollar entered a depreciation cycle, and the US dollar index dropped from 120 at the beginning of 0986 to 88 at the end of 1996, a decrease of 27%. 1On June 30th, 1984, Thailand announced the implementation of a "basket currency" exchange rate system, in which the share of US dollars is over 80%, the share of Japanese yen 1 1% ~ 13%, and other currencies are not more than 10%. Obviously, the exchange rate of Thai baht against the US dollar is basically fixed, maintaining at the level of 1 US dollar against 25 baht. Due to the depreciation of the US dollar, the real effective exchange rate of the Thai baht fell sharply, which improved Thailand's export competitiveness and promoted Thailand's economic development. During this period, Thailand's GDP grew at an average annual rate of more than 8%, making it an Asian miracle that attracted worldwide attention. From 1986 to 1994, Thailand's manufacturing exports grew at an average annual rate of 30%, and the proportion of manufacturing exports in total exports rose from 36% to 8 1%, and the proportion of manufacturing industries in GDP rose from 22% to 29%. At the same time, the real estate bubble began to appear. From 1993 to 1996, the property price in Thailand increased by nearly 400%.

Because the United States was reaping the fruits of victory in Latin America and hitting the Soviet Union, an energy exporter, there was no sharp rise in commodity prices during this period, and the international crude oil price remained basically below $20 per barrel.

In the second step (1996- 1998), the US dollar appreciated by 20%, the commodity prices were stable, and the US dollar interest rate remained at around 3%.

From 1996, the dollar began to appreciate. The dollar index rose from 86 points in June 1996 to 95 points in July 1997, with an increase of 10.5%. The Thai baht exchange rate is also closely following the US dollar, which weakens the export competitiveness. Since 1996, Thailand's export growth rate has dropped from 24% in 1995 to 3%. The decline in exports led to the rapid expansion of Thailand's deficit, with the trade deficit reaching $654.38+0.62 billion, accounting for 9.654.38+0% of the gross national product, exceeding the warning line of 8%. At that time, the US federal benchmark interest rate was 3%. In order to make up a large trade deficit and meet the demand of domestic over-investment, Thailand borrowed a large amount of foreign capital and flowed into Thailand's real estate and stock markets. Thailand's foreign debt reached $93 billion from 1996, which doubled compared with 1992. Thailand's economy has shown signs of crisis.

1in March, 1997, financial tycoons such as Soros decided that Thailand could not continue to maintain the original exchange rate, so they launched the first round of onslaught. 1July 2, 997, Thailand announced that it would abandon the fixed exchange rate system; 11July 10, the Philippines announced that it would abandon the fixed exchange rate system; 14 On August 4th, Indonesia announced a floating exchange rate system. A financial storm swept across Southeast Asia. At the same time, the US dollar continued to appreciate, reaching 104 in August and 198, which was 20% higher than 196 in October. A wider financial crisis broke out in Southeast Asia, and the Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit collapsed.

The third step (1998-2001) is to prescribe the privatization prescription and reap the fruits of victory.

After the crisis, Southeast Asian countries turned to the International Monetary Fund for help. The conditions offered by the IMF are simple. If you want to borrow money, you must agree to three conditions: cutting government spending, tightening monetary policy and privatizing state-owned enterprises. The last is the privatization of state-owned enterprises, so that the lifeline industries of Southeast Asian countries, including finance, oil, electricity, minerals and telecommunications, are privatized, and the economic control of the country is in the hands of multinational companies headed by American companies. For example, after the financial crisis, 1998, Indonesia's 12 state-owned enterprises were privatized, including state-owned enterprises in pillar industries such as telecommunications, mining and cement. In the 20 months after the financial crisis, western multinational companies made 186 mergers and acquisitions in Southeast Asia, which was the biggest asset transfer in Southeast Asia in the past 50 years. The achievements of economic take-off in Southeast Asian countries were completely stolen by western multinational companies.

You may not know that the financial crisis in Southeast Asia could have been completely avoided. 1July, 1997, the financial turmoil first started in Thailand. On August 7, the International Monetary Fund held a meeting in Tokyo. At the meeting, it was decided that each major Asian government would contribute US$ 654,380 billion and finally lend the Thai government more than US$ 654,380.7 billion. If things stop here, then the IMF has done quite well, but the problem is that this $654.38+07 billion is incidental, and this condition is fatal. The United States requires Thailand to disclose the off-balance-sheet liabilities of the central bank when accepting this loan. The United States is so powerful, will it not know how much debt Thailand has? Therefore, Thailand has to disclose its off-balance-sheet liabilities of $23.4 billion. Therefore, all investors understand that Thailand has no money, even lending it more than 654.38+0.7 billion is not enough. You are an investor, what would you do? Of course, I took out my own money first to avoid greater losses, so the financial crisis in Thailand inevitably happened and quickly spread to other countries in Southeast Asia.

At that time, Japan provided 54% of overseas loans from Thailand, 39% from Indonesia and 36% from Malaysia. The size of the loan determines that once a crisis occurs, the Bank of Japan cannot escape unscathed. Therefore, this is the last thing Japan wants to see. The Japanese government must prevent the outbreak of the financial crisis. It proposes unconditional direct assistance and proposes to set up an Asian guarantee fund of $654.38+000 billion. The US$ 654.38+000 billion is more than enough to save Thailand, but the US Treasury and IMF severely oppose this plan and use all means to obstruct the implementation of this proposal. Japan finally had to give up because it could not confront the United States, and the last chance to save the financial crisis in Southeast Asia was extinguished by the United States. In the final analysis, only when a crisis breaks out can we promote the three fires of "economic reform" in Southeast Asia and take advantage of the fire to rob.

The third round of exchange rate war (200 1-) is aimed at both energy exporting countries and capital importing countries.

In the first step (2001-2014), the US dollar depreciated by 36%, commodity prices rose and the US dollar interest rate fell.

Since 200 1, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates 13 times in a row, setting the "most violent interest rate reduction cycle" since 198 1. The dollar index began to fall from 200 110 at the end of the year, and all the way down to 70 points before the financial crisis in 2008. The decline of 36% is unprecedented, and the consequences are well known. The US dollar interest rate can be ignored, which is basically around 0.3%, and it has dropped to 0.25% after 2008. In 200 1 year, the size of the Fed's assets and liabilities was 0.6 1 trillion dollars, and in 2008 it was 2.26 trillion dollars. After several rounds of quantitative easing, it reached $4.5 trillion by the end of 20 14. This completes the step of throwing dollars around the world.

Followed by soaring energy prices, crude oil, for example, broke through $30 per barrel in early 2003, $40 and $50 per barrel in September 2004, $60 per barrel in June 2005, $70 per barrel in August, $90 per barrel in 2007 and the highest point of $0/47.27 per barrel in July 2008. Including Russia, India, Australia, Venezuela, Brazil, Chile, Peru, Colombia and Saudi Arabia, 10 major energy and commodity exporters directly benefited.

Because the dollar is cheap, emerging economies began to borrow foreign debts to develop their economies on a large scale. According to IMF statistics, after the financial crisis in 2008, the scale of overseas bond issuance by non-financial enterprises in emerging markets soared. According to the calculation of the International Finance Association, from 20 14 to 20 18, the corporate debts of all emerging countries that need to be extended will reach $65,438 +0.68 trillion. For example, the proportion of India's short-term foreign debt in the total foreign debt rose from 23% in 2009 to 20 13, exceeding the international warning line of 25%. If the dollar enters the appreciation channel, the cost of bond extension in emerging economies will increase significantly and the debt risk will expand.

In the second step (2014-2015), the dollar appreciated by 20%, and commodity prices fell. If the next step is to raise interest rates, the US dollar interest rate will enter a fast-rising channel.

20 14, 10, the United States stopped quantitative easing and entered the appreciation cycle. From 20 14 in 1 October to 3 1 and 20 15 in August, the US dollar index rose by 19.7%. Coupled with the improvement of the US stock market, the total net capital outflow of 19 largest emerging market economies reached US$ 940.2 billion, twice that of the financial crisis in 2008-2009. Morgan Stanley used "ten countries in trouble" to describe the currencies of the ten economies facing the greatest risks: South African rand, Brazilian real, Thai baht, Singapore dollar, New Taiwan dollar, Chilean peso, Colombian peso, Russian ruble, Korean won and peruvian sol.

At the same time, the commodity index fell by 43.7%. The global commodity market price hit a new low of 16, which will bring a serious blow to the "ten raw materials countries". Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America, is in the longest recession since the 1930s. In just 20 14 a year, the Brazilian real depreciated by 35% against the US dollar. Venezuela, the largest oil exporter in Latin America, is in hyperinflation, short of basic necessities and its economy is collapsing. Investors are almost certain that Venezuela will default on its dollar debt. Colombia is beset with problems due to falling oil and coal prices. From February 20 14 to February 20 15, the Colombian peso depreciated by 36% against the US dollar.

The third step is to harvest the fruits of victory. The United States will not use the same strategy twice, but it is likely to buy cheap assets in crisis areas on a large scale. American companies are ready, depending on when the Fed takes action.

At present, the Federal Reserve has 4.5 trillion dollars in liabilities on its balance sheet, while the US stock market is rising and listed companies are very rich in cash. In 20 14 years, share repurchases and dividends alone exceeded 1 trillion dollars. Moody's statistics show that as of May 20 15, the top 50 enterprises in the United States held 1 trillion dollars in cash, and all listed enterprises held 1.73 trillion dollars in cash. 64% of this money is deposited overseas, about 1. 1 trillion dollars. More importantly, the stock price is high, and it is easy to get more cash when you need to buy it. Therefore, American companies are now sharpening their swords and waiting for the crisis in other countries after the Fed raises interest rates.

Hope to adopt ~