Huatong platinum and silver to see the future development of silver.

1.2009 Review of Silver Market

Looking back on the trend of international silver price since 2009, at the beginning of the year, driven by the demand for safe haven, the international silver price started to rise for the first time, reaching a high of 14.64 USD/oz on February 23rd. In March and April, the international silver price adjusted back, ranging from 12.80 to 13.5 USD/oz. Since the end of April, the dollar has been weakening all the way, which has led to the second wave of international silver prices rising this year. On May 28th, it broke through the integer mark of 15 USD/oz, and reached the highest point of 16.24 USD/oz on June 3rd. After that, the international silver price began to fall all the way, and reached the lowest point of 65,438 in two months on July 3rd. After the technical adjustment in late July and August, the international silver price began to rise again, hitting record highs for more than two months, breaking through the $0/7, 18 and 19 mark per ounce. In the month of 65438+February, the international silver price rose strongly in the short term. After reaching the highest point of the year 19.46 USD/oz on February 3, 65438, the international silver price began to show a sharp correction. At present, the international silver price has fallen to around 17.5 USD/oz, and the correction range is about 10%. The trend of domestic silver spot is roughly the same as that of international silver. The domestic spot price of silver has risen with the rise of international silver price, from 2435 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 3980 yuan/kg at present, with the highest price of 4220 yuan/kg.

Looking at the international silver market in 2009, the international silver price fluctuated upward. According to analysis, as of February 25th, 2009, the international silver price rose by 6. 13 USD/oz, with an increase of 54%, while the domestic spot silver price rose by 1545 RMB/kg, with an increase of 63%. The international gold price rose by 204.4 USD/oz from the beginning of the year to 65438+February 3, with an increase of only 23%. It can be seen that the increase of silver price in 2009 has been far greater than that of gold, and the performance of silver has surpassed that of gold. Why did silver gain so much and perform better than gold? What will happen to the silver market? We can analyze it from the following aspects.

Figure1-1-9 international silver price trend chart in 2009

(Source: Shanghai Huatong Platinum and Silver Trading Market)

Figure1-1-kloc-0/0 domestic silver spot price trend chart in 2009

Source: Shanghai Huatong Platinum and Silver Trading Market)

2. Analysis of influencing factors

The world economic situation remains unstable.

Since the financial tsunami broke out in 2008, the international financial market has been in turmoil and the world economic situation is uncertain. In order to maintain the stability of financial markets, major countries in the world have successively launched huge economic stimulus plans at the end of 2008. For example, after 10 in 2008, the US government issued 700 billion US dollars of base money in two months, which is equivalent to the base money issued in the past 95 years, and will form more and more expectations and pressures on global inflation. In March, 2009, the Federal Reserve announced that it would directly purchase the maturing national debt, implement the quantitative easing monetary policy and maintain the zero interest rate level, which means that the Federal Reserve will directly monetize the fiscal deficit, and the newly created huge "long-debt dollar" will directly affect the liabilities of the world balance sheet. At the same time, the Bank of England also said that it will buy back up to 75 billion pounds of government bonds, and there are 75 billion pounds of central bank repurchase terms. Compared with Britain's current economic scale, these figures are about three times the stock of banknotes and coins in circulation, twice the monetary base of Britain, and equivalent to 1/3 of the stock of British issued national debt. As a result, global liquidity is rampant and global inflation expectations are gradually rising. The prices of international commodity assets such as gold and silver have been rising since the beginning of the year, and the prices have hit record highs. Although many governments implement economic stimulus plans and issue a large amount of money, which will help the global economy get out of the crisis, inflation expectations caused by excessive liquidity will also become an obstacle or "roadblock" to the global economic recovery, and international commodity prices will rise sharply.

However, in order to stimulate economic recovery, the United States must maintain a strong dollar status for a period of time, suppress the prices of raw materials and commodities, and reduce the production costs of enterprises. Otherwise, once the economy does not resume growth, inflation is out of control, and enterprises that cannot effectively transmit price increases to the downstream will inevitably be overwhelmed by high costs. Without the confirmation and support of the real economy, the virtual recovery of the economy will be short-lived. When the global economy is in the bud of recovery, under the dual effects of recovery expectation and inflation expectation, the continuous rise of commodity prices and asset capital prices will undoubtedly push the global economy into a stagflation dead end. It is also in the economic interests of all countries to maintain a strong dollar to curb commodity prices. Once the American economy begins to recover obviously, the dollar policy may change. The United States will once again take the opportunity to implement a strong dollar policy, raise interest rates to recover the dollar liquidity of emerging countries and regions, and puncture the asset price bubbles of emerging countries and regions, thus causing the stock market to fall and wealth to shift again.

2.2 Supply and demand analysis of silver fundamentals

(1) Silver supply shrinks

According to the relevant data published by the World Silver Association, the total global silver supply in 2008 was about 27,633 tons. Silver supply mainly comes from mining industry (about 76% of the total), recycled silver (about 20%) and government sales (about 3.5%). But there are two important factors that will have an important impact on the supply of silver, and the supply of silver is gradually shrinking. First of all, most of the melted silver will be consumed in industrial production. Although some of it will be recycled as waste, the silver mined in the past 100 years has almost been used up. This is not the case with gold. Most of the gold mined and smelted for thousands of years still exists today. Second, the government's silver supply has declined. Although the US government holds enough gold, in order to make up for the shortage of mining production, the US has exhausted its silver reserves, while other governments' silver reserves are also decreasing. The existing silver reserves have been severely depleted in the past 15 years, and China and India (the two largest silver holders so far) are also close to the bottom line of their supply capacity.

(2) The demand for silver is increasing instead of decreasing.

2009 China Jewelry and Jade Jewelry Guide

Silver is a consumable precious metal, which has the dual properties of financial instruments and industrial metals. Because of its good thermal and electrical conductivity, silver is widely used in photosensitive materials, alloys, silver coins, jewelry and so on. According to Morgan's estimation, between 1990 and 2005, a total of1500 million ounces (about 46,655 tons) of silver was consumed. Since 2009, with the signs of global economic recovery, the boosting effect on industrial metals is quite obvious, and the demand for silver is increasing instead of decreasing. The demand for industrial silver has increased year by year, from less than 40% to 50%, while the demand for photography has dropped by half. According to the data of Baiyin Institute, in 2008, industrial silver accounted for 50.3% of the demand for silver, jewelry accounted for 17.8%, photography accounted for1.8%, and silverware, silver coins and silver medals accounted for 13.8%. Now, there is a new source of demand-silver listed trading fund. According to the data ETF)Ishares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver exchange fund (ETF), as of June 30, 2009, its silver holdings have reached a record high of 9404.79 tons. In addition, according to the data published in World Silver Yearbook 2009, the output of silver jewelry in China in 2008 increased by 3% compared with the previous year, reaching about 733 tons. At present, China has become the second largest producer of silver jewelry in the world.

The $2.3 index continued to weaken after rising sharply.

At the beginning of 2009, influenced by President-elect Obama's economic stimulus plan, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England lowered the benchmark interest rate from 2.0% to 1.5%, and the US dollar index soared continuously. On March 2, because AIG announced huge losses, which aggravated the market's concerns about the economy, the US dollar index was strongly sought after. However, as the United States began to implement quantitative easing monetary policy, the dollar began to weaken continuously, and the dollar index entered the downward channel. Driven by the continued weakening of the US dollar, the price of silver gradually rose. On March 18, influenced by the Federal Reserve's decision to buy US$ 300 billion long-term treasury bonds and US$ 750 billion mortgage-backed securities, the US dollar index fell sharply. Although the central banks of Europe, Japan and the United States announced that they had reached a foreign exchange swap line agreement totaling 295 billion US dollars, the US dollar index rebounded. However, on April 29th, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at the historical low of zero to 0.25%, and said that it would use all possible tools to promote economic recovery, and the US dollar index plummeted again. In May, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank announced the implementation of quantitative easing policy, and the minutes of the April policy meeting released by the Federal Reserve showed that they would consider further purchasing securities to stimulate the economy, making the US dollar index continue to fluctuate and fall. In July, the G-8 summit was held, during which China and Russia said that the status of the US dollar as a reserve currency was irreplaceable at present, which boosted the US dollar. 10 In August, September and June, global economic data generally continued to improve, the stock market continued to rise, risk appetite put pressure on the US dollar, and the US dollar index fell sharply. 165438+ 10 In the month of October, the Bank of England kept the interest rate unchanged at 0.5% as expected by the market, and announced that the asset purchase scale was expanded from 175 billion to 200 billion, but it was lower than the expected 50 billion. As soon as the news came out, the pound rose sharply and the dollar fell. 165438+1At the end of October, some remarks made by Fed officials suppressed the dollar and the dollar continued to fall. 65438+February, the debt crisis occurred in Dubai, and the favorable economic data released that month raised investors' expectations for the accelerated recovery of the US economy, and the US dollar began to rebound continuously.

2.4 The international gold price fluctuated and surged.

In 2009, against the background of inflation expectations and the weakening of the US dollar, the international gold price went out of a wave of volatile upward market, especially since September, the international gold price has repeatedly hit new highs, breaking through the high point of 1032.55 US dollars/ounce on March 7, 2008, and hitting a new high of 65,438 on February 3, 2008. Although the international gold price fell sharply at the end of the year, the position of the international gold ET F fund remained at a high level, and governments did not sell gold, and individual countries were still increasing their gold reserves. The international gold price will remain high for some time to come, and may hit a new high at the right time. From the price comparison of gold and silver, on February 25th, 1 ounce of gold was equivalent to 63 ounces of silver, while in March 2008, when the price of gold first broke through 1 1,000 USD/ounce, 1 ounce of gold was only equivalent to 48.45 ounces of silver. It can be seen that there is still room for further increase in international silver prices.

In 2009, the position of SPDR gold shares, the largest ETF gold fund in the world, increased from 780.23 tons (65438+ 10132.71ton (65438+February 23rd) at present.

Figure1-1-kloc-0/1international gold price trend chart in 2009

(Source: Kitco website)

The country with the largest gold reserves in the world is the United States, holding 8 133.50 tons of gold, accounting for 78.3% of foreign exchange. Germany ranks second, with its gold holdings of 34 12.60 tons, accounting for 69.5% of foreign exchange. Ranked third is the International Monetary Fund (IMF), holding 30 17.3 tons of gold. China's gold reserve is 1.054 tons, ranking sixth, accounting for only 1.8% of foreign exchange. 165438+1On October 3rd, the International Monetary Fund announced that it would sell 200 tons of gold to India. Because these 200 tons did not substantially increase the supply of the international gold market, but increased the market's understanding of the safe-haven function of gold, the international gold price rose sharply, reaching 2.37% that day. Earlier, in early April, the International Monetary Fund announced that it would sell 400 tons of gold to raise funds in the name of helping developing countries hit hard by the financial tsunami. On the day of the announcement, the international gold futures price plummeted by more than 3% and fell below $900 per ounce.

Figure1-1-kloc-0/2 Changes in the gold share positions of SPDR, the world's largest ETF gold fund in 2009.

Figure 1- 1- 13 Official map of the top ten gold reserves in the world

(Source: World Gold Council, as of June 5-38, 2009+February)

3. Conclusion

To sum up, from the factors affecting the price of silver, the global economy is unstable and the US dollar continues to weaken, and the international gold price has played an important role in promoting the price of silver. Silver has the dual properties of financial instruments and industrial metals, and the industrial metal properties of silver are more obvious than gold. With the improvement of the current global economic situation, the demand for industrial silver will gradually increase, and the output of silver jewelry will also increase, which will strongly support the later trend of international silver prices. However, because the value of silver is lower than that of gold, it is easy to speculate, the price elasticity of silver is higher than that of gold, and its investment risk is higher than that of gold, so it is necessary to be cautious when investing in silver. After the international silver price was adjusted in June 5438+February, the international gold price also fell below 1 100 USD/oz, and both gold and silver fell by more than 10%. However, there is limited room for further decline of silver, and it is expected to reach a new high in the future, breaking through the $20/oz mark.