Trend analysis of camera price

In recent years, the world economy has gradually recovered, the demand for mineral products has increased strongly, and the prices of mineral products have generally increased. The regions where the world economy is growing continue to expand, the US economy is running steadily, and the Japanese economy is recovering, especially the developing countries such as China and India, which have improved the balance and stability of the world economic growth. With the recovery of the world economy, the investment in fixed assets has increased, the demand for energy and raw materials is strong, mineral products are in short supply, and the US dollar continues to weaken. The prices of most international mineral products settled in US dollars have generally risen, and many mineral products have hit record highs for many years in a row, which is an obvious feature of the recent world mining industry. At the same time, although the global output of mineral products is increasing (table 1.6), the demand growth is released too strongly in a short time (table 1.7), which makes it difficult for mining production and mineral products market to adapt, showing a situation of strong demand, insufficient supply and tight supply and demand, and mineral products prices generally rise. However, affected by the spread of the financial crisis, some new changes have taken place in the situation of mineral resources, such as slowing demand and plummeting prices, which may affect future mineral exploration and development.

In 2007, the average annual price of crude oil in the international market (spot price of new york crude oil) was 72.26 USD/barrel, up 9.5% compared with 2006. In 2007, the long-term supply price of iron ore rose by 9.5%; In 2008, the import price of iron ore in Brazil increased by 65%, while that in Australia increased by 96.5%. In 2007, the world average refined copper price was 7 1 19 USD/ton, up 5.8% year-on-year; The price of refined aluminum was $2,638/ton, up 2.8% year-on-year.

Table 1.6 Output of major mineral products in the world

sequential

Table 1.7 consumption of some mineral products in the world

1.4. 1 The contradiction between energy supply and demand is prominent, and the price of crude oil in the international market continues to rise.

2007 is the fourth year of sustained growth in the global energy market. The sustained growth of the world economy has led to the sustained growth of global primary energy consumption. In 2007, although the consumption of various fuels continued to increase, the growth rate slowed down obviously. With the increasing public concern about energy security and climate change, the energy industry has become the focus of world attention. In 2007, the price of crude oil (Daqing crude oil) continued to fluctuate and rose, reaching a high of 90.45438+0 USD/barrel in 65438+February. The rise in oil prices has pushed up the price of natural gas. Facing the change of demand, the average price of natural gas in Henry Center in 2007 was $6.95 per million British thermal units, up 2.7% from 2006. In 2007, the price of Herenbp in the UK fell by 23.7% to 6.0 1 USD per million British thermal units. Tight production capacity, bad weather conditions, persistent conflicts in the Middle East, chaos in many countries around the world, and a large amount of investment funds entering the energy field are all important factors to promote the continuous rise of energy prices in the international market. Although the price of oil and natural gas has risen sharply in the international market, there is no shortage of oil and natural gas supply. The security of energy supply has aroused widespread concern, and the influence of geopolitics on the world oil market has gradually intensified (table 1.8).

In 2007, the world oil output was 3.906 billion tons, down 0.2% year-on-year (table 1.6), the first decline since 2002. The consumption was 3.953 billion tons, up 1.6% year-on-year. In 2007, China's oil consumption increased by 4. 1%. For the third consecutive year, the oil consumption of the United States experienced negative growth, which was 0. 1% lower than that of 2006, but it still accounted for 23.9% of the world oil consumption. From the main consumption areas, North America, Asia Pacific and Europe are still the main consumption areas of oil, accounting for 28.7%, 30.0% and 24.0% of the world's total consumption respectively. In 2007, the global oil consumption increased to 990,000 barrels per day, bringing the daily oil consumption to 85.22 million barrels. The consumption of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has dropped by about 385,000 barrels per day. In 2007, OPEC oil production decreased by 356,000 barrels per day. In 2007, the output of other producing countries decreased by 256,000 barrels per day. The output of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has decreased by 287,000 barrels per day, which is the fifth consecutive year. During this period, Russia's output reached a new peak, increasing by 900,000 barrels per day. The output of the United States, Brazil, Venezuela and other countries has also increased. In 2007, the average price of Brent crude oil was $765,438 +0.82 per barrel, which was $65,438 +0.3% higher than that in 2006, and reached the peak of $90.85 per barrel in 65,438+February (table 1.8).

Table1.8 Crude oil prices in major markets in the world from 2002 to 2007 Unit: USD/barrel.

In 2007, the world natural gas output was 2.94 trillion cubic meters, 2.4% higher than that in 2006, slightly lower than the annual average 10. Russia and the United States are the two countries with the largest natural gas production, with the output of 607.4 billion cubic meters and 545.9 billion cubic meters respectively, accounting for 20.6% and 18.6% of the world's total natural gas production respectively. China's natural gas production increased by 18.4%, accounting for only 2.4% of the world's output. In 2007, the world natural gas consumption was 2.925 trillion cubic meters, an increase of 3. 1% over 2006, which was higher than the growth rate of 2.4% in 2006. The United States and Russia are the two largest natural gas consumers in the world, with natural gas consumption of 6 1, 3 1 billion cubic meters and 432 1 billion cubic meters respectively, accounting for 22.6% and 15.0% of the world's natural gas consumption respectively. In 2007, China's natural gas consumption increased by 19.9% year-on-year, which is the fastest growing country in the world, but it only accounts for 2.3% of the world's natural gas consumption. The slowdown of global economic growth is the main reason for the slowdown of world natural gas consumption growth.

In 2007, coal remained the fastest growing fuel in the world. In 2007, the coal output was 6.396 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%; Consumption was 365,438+78 million tons of oil equivalent, up 4.5% year-on-year, higher than the average level of 10. Among them, Latin America has the fastest growth rate, and its coal production and consumption have increased by 6.0% and 7.3% respectively over the previous year. China is still the largest coal consumer in the world. The growth rate of coal consumption slowed down in 2007, but it was still higher than the average level of 10. In 2007, China's consumption increased by 7.9%, accounting for 465,438 0.3% of the global coal consumption, accounting for more than 70% of the global consumption increase; The rise of oil price and natural gas price is the main reason for the increase of coal consumption in China. The United States is the second largest coal consumer. In 2007, the coal consumption was 574 million tons of oil equivalent, accounting for 18. 1% of the global consumption, showing the first decline since 2002. Outside China, the growth rate of coal is gentle, with a growth rate of 2.0%, which is higher than the average annual growth rate in the past 10 years. At present, the international coal price is still relatively low, and the increase of coal price is less than that of oil and gas.

In 2007, nuclear energy consumption was 622 million tons of oil equivalent, down 2.0% year-on-year. The United States remains the largest producer and consumer of nuclear energy in the world. In 2007, the consumption of nuclear energy in the United States was 1.92 million tons of oil equivalent, accounting for 30.9% of the world's nuclear energy consumption in that year. The consumption of OECD member countries is 527 million tons of oil equivalent, accounting for 84.7% of the global consumption increase. China's nuclear consumption increased by 14.6%, reaching142,000 tons of oil equivalent. As a big consumer of nuclear power, France's nuclear power consumption in 2007 was 99.7 million tons of oil equivalent, down 2.4% year-on-year, accounting for 16.0% of the world's total nuclear power consumption.

1.4.2 There is a strong demand in the world steel market, and the supply of iron ore is tight, and the price has risen sharply.

In 2007, the world steel output reached a record 6543.8+322 million tons, an increase of 6.7% over 2006. This is the fourth consecutive year that the world steel output has exceeded the 654.38 billion tons mark. In 2007, the world steel output ratio 10 years ago increased by 76.4%, which was 55.5% higher than that five years ago. China is the largest steel producer in the world, and its output reached 489 million tons in 2007. China's steel production accounts for 37.0% of the world's output. Among the top five steel producers, the total steel output of Japan, the United States, Russia and South Korea is only 69.6% of that of China. Japan is the second largest steel producer with an output of 65.438+0.2 billion tons. The United States ranks third in the world with 97,265,438+10,000 tons. Other important steel producers are Russia, South Korea, Germany, India and Ukraine. At present, China, Japan, South Korea, the United States, Germany, Canada and Russia are the major steel importers and exporters in the world. The steel trade of these countries occupies a large share in the world steel trade. Due to the current global steel overcapacity and fierce competition in the international steel market, the countries with higher international market share are Japan, Germany and Russia.

The increase in iron ore demand has driven iron ore producers to accelerate capacity expansion and increase production, making the world iron ore output reach16.9 million tons in 2006, an increase of 9.7% over 2005. Due to the shortage of iron ore in the international market, the world's major iron ore production companies raised the price of iron ore again in the price negotiation in 2006. Although China, as a big iron ore trading country, directly participated in the iron ore price negotiation in 2006, China was always at a disadvantage in the negotiation because the three mining giants monopolized 70% of the global seaborne iron ore trade, and finally had to accept the 9.5% price increase agreement again.

In recent years, except molybdenum, most ferroalloy minerals in the world, such as refined nickel, manganese ore, chromite, cobalt ore and tungsten ore, are in short supply, and their prices generally rise.

1.4.3 the market is in short supply, and the prices of most non-ferrous metals hit a record high.

Since the beginning of 2 1 century, the consumption of major non-ferrous metals has increased rapidly. Although the output has also increased continuously, it is still in a state of short supply (table 1.9), and the price continues to rise (table 1. 10). In 2007, the demand of the world nonferrous metal market surged, and many nonferrous metal mineral markets were in short supply. In addition, the inventory of some products declined and prices rose sharply. The overall price level of non-ferrous metals also hit a new high in 10 years. Among the six non-ferrous metals in 2007, the average annual price of lead increased by 100.5% after the sharp increase in 2006, reaching 2580 USD/ton. The average annual prices of tin and nickel were 14539 USD/ton and 37230 USD/ton, respectively, up by 65.9% and 53.3% year-on-year, both hitting new highs since 17. The average annual prices of copper and aluminum were 765,438+065,438+09 USD/ton and 2,638 USD/ton, respectively, up 5.8% and 2.8% year-on-year. The average annual price of zinc is $3,242/ton, down 0.9% year-on-year, which is the only drop among the six non-ferrous metals. The output and consumption of major non-ferrous metals in the world have increased to varying degrees, but the market supply situation is becoming increasingly severe. In 2007, most other non-ferrous metals also showed a good situation of increasing production and consumption and booming market supply and demand. The prices of metals such as antimony, bismuth, cadmium, indium, titanium, cobalt and selenium all rose sharply.

Table1.9 Supply and demand of major non-ferrous metals in the world in 2007 Unit: 10,000 tons.

Table1.102001~ Spot prices of major metals in 2007 (annual average price)

1.4.4 Both supply and demand in the precious metals market are booming, and the prices of most precious metals are rising.

Although the world demand for gold has not changed much in recent years, the price of gold has been rising all the way. In 2007, like most mineral products, the international precious metals market showed a scene of both supply and demand, and the annual gold price fluctuated greatly. The annual average gold price was 696.39 US dollars/ounce, up 15.2% compared with 2006 (table 1. 10), and the gold price was on February 25438. On the supply side, in 2007, the world gold mine output was 2200.7 tons, down by 1.3% year-on-year, resulting in a decrease in supply. Although the output of mineral gold in China, Indonesia and other countries continued to rise, which led to the growth of mineral gold output in Asia, the output of other continents declined to varying degrees. From the demand side, investment in 2007 is still the main field of gold demand, and it is also the main driving force for the rise and fall of gold prices in 2007.

With the continuous adjustment of global economic structure and the change of political situation, the monetary function and strategic value preservation function of gold are becoming more and more important. In addition, traditionally, the US dollar is the main part of Asian countries' foreign exchange reserves. Due to the long-term depreciation of the US dollar and exchange rate fluctuations of other major currencies, countries have increased their gold reserves to resist the risk of depreciation. At present, China's foreign exchange reserves have exceeded US$ 65,438 +0.7 trillion, but the official gold reserves are only over 600 tons. The urgent task is to adjust the strategic reserve structure and enhance the flexibility and initiative of the exchange rate. In addition, the proportion of gold in the official reserves of Russia, Japan and other countries is also small, so the demand for increasing gold reserves is gradually increasing.

In 2006, the total demand of world silver manufacturing industry was 26 142 tons, which was 0.9% lower than that in 2005. From the consumption field, industrial application is the largest consumption field, accounting for 5 1.2% of the total demand, followed by jewelry industry, accounting for 19.7%, other photography industries accounting for 17.3%, silverware accounting for 7.0%, and silver coins and badges accounting for 4.7%. In addition, the investment demand is about 1500 tons. The world mineral silver supply in 2006 is estimated to be 28,359 tons, which is 65,438+0.5% lower than that in 2005. Among them, 70% is mine output, 2 1% is waste recycling and 9% is sold by the government. On the whole, the supply and demand of the international silver market were basically balanced in 2006, with only a small supply gap. Judging from the international silver market in recent years, the trend of silver price is not necessarily related to market supply and demand. When the price of silver in the international market exceeds $6.00 per ounce, it is not the relationship between supply and demand that directly affects the market, but factors such as speculation and exchange rate. The international silver market in recent two years has proved this point, and the current situation of silver supply and demand has little direct impact on the market. In the short term, the economic situation, changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar and international oil prices are still the main factors that determine the price of silver. At the same time, because silver is mainly associated with copper, lead, zinc and gold, the quality of silver-related metal market also affects the silver market.

Automobile industry is the main end use of platinum group metals, so the platinum group metals market is increasingly dependent on automobile industry. In 2006, the global demand for platinum was 6.78 million ounces, an increase of 1.2% over 2005. The increase in demand mainly comes from industrial uses such as automobiles, while the demand for jewelry processing industry has dropped significantly. In 2006, the supply growth of platinum exceeded the demand growth. The total annual supply was 6.79 million ounces, an increase of 2.2% over 2005. The increase in supply mainly comes from the expansion of South Africa's production capacity to 5.29 million ounces, resulting in a substantial increase in supply. On the whole, the supply and demand of the platinum market in 2006 were basically balanced, with only 65,438+0,000 ounces remaining. The global demand for palladium in 2006 was 6.64 million ounces, which was 10% lower than that in 2005. The decline in demand is mainly due to the 30% decline in demand of jewelry processing industry, which has reached less than 65,438+0,000 ounces. The sharp increase in consumption in the automobile industry and electronics industry has more or less compensated for the loss caused by the decline in demand in the jewelry field. In 2006, the supply of palladium was 8.06 million ounces, which was 4. 1% lower than that in 2005. Overall, the market supply and demand are basically balanced. In 2006, the global demand for rhodium was 837,000 ounces, an increase of 65,438+0.2% compared with 2005. Automobile catalyst is still the largest consumption field of rhodium. Although the annual supply growth rate exceeded the demand, the overall market was still in short supply, which led to a large price increase.