What is the future development trend of maternal and child industry?

Listed companies in maternal and infant industry: king of the children (30 1078), Ruoyuchen (0030 10), Baby Friendly Room (6032 14) and Baby Tree (0 176 1). HK), good boy (065438).

The core data of this paper: the growth of newborn population, the structure of mothers' groups, the consumption structure of maternal and child products, the market scale and demand trends in China.

Demand subject: the birth rate has dropped, and after 90, it has become the main force of Chinese mothers.

-the growth of the new population

In recent years, the birth population in Chinese mainland has decreased, and the fertility rate has continued to decrease. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the annual birth population in Chinese mainland fluctuated between1600-170,000 in 20 15 years. In 20 16, stimulated by the "comprehensive two-child policy", the birth population in Chinese mainland rose for a short time, exceeding170,000 for two consecutive years, about10,000 more than before the implementation of the policy.

However, since 20 17, the number of births has decreased, the scale has shrunk rapidly, and the birth rate has gradually declined, hovering at a low level. The preliminary summary of the seventh national census shows that in 2020, the population born in Chinese mainland will continue to decline, only120,000; At the same time, the total fertility rate of women of childbearing age in Chinese mainland in 2020 is 1.3, which is already at a low level, mainly due to the continuous decrease of the number of women of childbearing age and the gradual weakening of the "two-child" effect.

Under the background of accelerating the implementation of the three-child policy, the downward trend of the number of newborns in China is expected to ease, thus maintaining the growth of the demand side of the maternal and child industry.

-Distribution of the structure of the mother population

According to the data of iResearch, in the age distribution survey of Chinese mothers in 2020, the cumulative proportion of mothers under 30 (post-90 s and post-95 s) exceeded 60%, replacing the dominant position of post-80 s and post-85 s in childbirth and becoming the main force of new mothers. Especially in low-tier cities in the third and fourth tier and below, because the age of marriage and childbearing is lower, the proportion of mothers after 95 is higher.

Demand structure: Infant food and early education entertainment are the main consumption areas.

In the process of children's growth, infant food has always been a major expenditure of maternal and child supplies consumption; The overall monthly expenditure of maternal and child service consumption is also large, and with the growth of children, the demand for early education and entertainment increases, and parents' investment in children gradually shifts from product purchase to education expenditure.

Demand scale: The maternal and child market in China continues to grow, exceeding 4 trillion in 2020.

The number of newborns is still considerable, and many factors, such as the increase of per capita disposable income and the improvement of the consumption capacity of maternal and child products, have promoted the continuous growth of the maternal and child market in China. According to the blue book of maternal and child industry released by PricewaterhouseCoopers in 2002 1, the maternal and child market in China has been growing rapidly, with the market scale of only about1trillion in 20 10, exceeding 3 trillion in 20 18 and 4 trillion in 2020.

Demand trend: maternal and child market demand is developing towards differentiation and high-end.

According to the survey data of Baby Tree, the post-90s and post-90s pay more attention to children's personalized and refined needs, and the consumption of maternal and child products has an obvious upgrading trend, showing a trend of high-end and differentiation. In addition, the demand of the new generation of mothers for maternal and child care, parent-child photography, medical care, early childhood education and other content and services is also increasing. On the whole, the consumption upgrade of maternal and child products will become the main driving force for the sustained growth of maternal and child industry in the future.

For more industry-related data, please refer to the analysis report of Forward-looking Industry Research Institute "Market Prospect and Investment Strategic Planning of China Maternal and Child Industry".