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As one of the troikas driving economic growth, export has always played an important role in China's economy. Since 2022, the international environment has changed, and the external demand has been greatly impacted, which has brought great pressure to the foreign trade industry. The previous Central Economic Work Conference also emphasized the need to attract and utilize foreign capital more actively, promote high-level opening to the outside world, and improve the quality and level of trade and investment cooperation.

How will China's foreign trade develop when external demand weakens? How effective can enterprises "hold a group to the sea" in the near future? How does China expand and attract foreign investment? China News Weekly interviewed Wei Jianguo, vice chairman of China International Economic Exchange Center and former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce.

Foreign trade is the reserve of economic development.

China Newsweek: Export is the main pillar supporting China's economy, but recently "insufficient external demand" has become a frequently discussed keyword. In April 2022, the total value of foreign trade import and export increased by 0. 1% year-on-year, and then rebounded. By June, the growth rate had dropped to 0. 1%. What risks does foreign trade face?

Wei Jianguo: In 2022, the growth rate of total foreign trade import and export value will drop to 0.1June +0 1, but this does not mean that foreign trade will weaken.

First, when we look at a country's foreign trade, it is never calculated by a single month. These days, there are many unstable factors in the world, not to mention the great changes in one month and one week. Second, its decline is due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the United States raising interest rates four times in a row. This is a temporary phenomenon, which is very common abroad, so don't be afraid of slowing growth. I believe that 65438+February will make up for it soon. According to the law of foreign trade, there will be a small tail in 1 1 and 65438+February every year, because besides Christmas, there will be an overall supply for the New Year holiday and the year after next, but this year's tail is slightly tilted.

The risks faced by foreign trade are mainly related to four aspects. First, from the perspective of Europe, it will move some European factories, especially cutting-edge factories, to the United States because of the American Inflation Reduction Act. At present, it seems that the EU has no power to fight back. They neither discussed the question nor answered it. Therefore, next year, the EU economy will enter a full-scale recession, which is also what everyone is worried about. Second, after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, many energy prices rose, which led to the suspension, bankruptcy and transfer of a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises. Third, after sustained inflation in the United States, the income of ordinary people will decrease, and the demand will also decrease. The fourth is trade protectionism. If foreign demand decreases and trade protectionism is ushered in at the same time, it will be a great test for China's foreign trade enterprises.

But can we say that the weakening of external demand will affect the weakening of demand for goods in China? You can't draw an equal sign. The weakening of global demand is a general trend, but I think the demand and recognition of China's goods is completely artificial. Recently, some enterprises organized a group to grab orders, and all of them have achieved very good results, which is not easy.

On February 5, 2022, a large container ship was loading and unloading goods at Yantian Port in Shenzhen, Guangdong. Photography/reporter Chen Wen

China Newsweek: The Central Economic Work Conference held from June 5, 2038 to February 2022 put forward five major priorities for next year, focusing on expanding domestic demand. Facing the challenge of insufficient external demand, how do you view the performance of foreign trade next year?

Wei Jianguo: The central government has proposed to focus on expanding domestic demand in 2023 to boost our overall economy. In my opinion, if it is described as a war, there are reserves in the war, and wherever there are difficulties, there will be them. Foreign trade is a unified formation as a reserve anytime and anywhere. Therefore, the task of foreign trade this year is still very heavy. It is necessary to plan ahead when the foreign trade situation is good, so that we can take the initiative to start the transformation. Under the main cycle of consumption stimulating domestic demand, foreign trade can help and support the economy and play a supplementary role, so foreign trade should not be underestimated.

The foreign trade enterprises in China are not what they were 20 years ago or even 10 years ago. We joined the WTO 20 years ago, and now we have developed from the middle and low end of the global supply chain and industrial chain to the middle and high end, with strong resilience. Foreign trade has enough confidence, which comes from our strong industrial chain and supply chain. So I think the contribution of foreign trade to the economy in 2023 may still be greater than last year.

China Newsweek: Among the five key points of the Central Economic Work Conference, the fourth point is to expand and attract foreign investment. In the past two years, some industrial chains and foreign capitals have shown signs of withdrawing from China. Before 1 1 month, the growth rate of foreign enterprises' import and export was only 0. 1%, while the proportion dropped to 33. 1%. What measures should be taken to expand and attract foreign investment?

Wei Jianguo: The Central Economic Work Conference explicitly requested that efforts should be made to attract and utilize foreign capital and stabilize foreign trade. Therefore, these four words are more powerful and are an important direction of foreign trade in 2023.

This year, we will continue to promote high-level opening up. First, we must expand market access, and the negative list will continue to "slim down". Second, increase the opening up of modern service industry. According to the classification of WTO service industry, there are 98 kinds, involving financial industry, shipping, logistics, and even healthy style and health care for the elderly. At present, we haven't opened up the modern service industry, and opening up means letting more foreign capital in.

In addition, we should actively join CPTPP like RCEP. The Central Economic Work Conference also pointed out that it is necessary to actively compare relevant rules, regulations, management and standards, that is to say, to introduce some rules and regulations that are conducive to attracting foreign investment, and to create a market system that is market-oriented, legal and international, so as to prepare for the next comprehensive opening up.

In 2023, more open policies will be intensively introduced, mainly to increase efforts to attract and utilize foreign capital. I suggest that all provinces and cities take action. All provinces and cities that can work hard in the business environment and benefit foreign investment in terms of system, management, standards and regulations can seize the opportunity. In addition, the central and western regions have certain potential, but this potential has not yet been brought into play. The labor cost in the central and western regions is relatively low. In addition, Zhengzhou, Chengdu, Sichuan and Wuhan along the "Belt and Road" have the opportunity to gradually become logistics distribution centers, which can not only reduce the overall logistics cost, but also attract more foreign investment. The central and western regions should be mentally prepared, embrace the transfer and undertake the transfer, so that more global capital, information, technology and talents can take root and blossom in the local area.

It is normal to rob a bill at sea.

China Newsweek: One of the reasons that foreign trade will be affected in 2022 is that a large number of domestic import and export exhibitions will be cancelled. According to the exhibition screening statistics of the exhibition information platform, in 2022, only 292 exhibitions were actually held out of the original planned 1 159 exhibitions. If the import and export exhibition in 2023 is expected to return to the pre-epidemic level, is it possible for the foreign trade industry to usher in a real rebound?

Wei Jianguo: Large-scale international exhibitions are very important. Although there were thousands of exhibitions in China before the epidemic, they were generally recognized internationally and did not meet the needs of international customers. You can't sell goods just by putting them there. In the 1970s, we took delegations abroad to participate in exhibitions, and all of them placed orders according to market demand and customer demand. China is the supplier. We need to participate in and hold large-scale exhibitions recognized by international customers, understand consumers' preferences, and force production by the market, so that the order volume will be high.

Before the outbreak, there were 4 internationally recognized large-scale professional exhibitions/kloc-0, and 8 national comprehensive exhibitions, totaling 22. China is a country that pays little attention to exhibitions. Internationally, from now until April 2023, there will be 1522 large-scale comprehensive exhibitions and professional exhibitions around the world, including electronic exhibitions, furniture exhibitions, consumer goods exhibitions and even dental equipment exhibitions. The economic benefits of large-scale international exhibitions are amazing. An exhibition of dental medical devices has orders of nearly $600 billion worldwide. We should know that the total national export in June 165438+ 10 was $3 trillion. There is also an exhibition of artificial joints, and now there is almost $50 billion in business around the world.

As far as I know, there may be more than 700 large-scale international exhibitions in 1522 that will not be held, for one thing, because of the funding problem, and for another, because of the venue problem. I think China should strive to hold more international exhibitions and undertake global large-scale exhibitions, instead of holding another set of exhibitions, which will cost a lot of money, and it will be difficult to achieve good benefits if it is not done well. We should not only send teams to participate in foreign exhibitions, but also move these international exhibitions that cannot be held abroad to China and our doorstep, so that we can get orders at our doorstep, thus driving the industrial chain and supply chain and benefiting more small and medium-sized enterprises.

China Newsweek: Recently, various localities have organized enterprises to go out to sea to grab orders. What is the actual effect? In the short term, Christmas orders are basically delivered. In the long run, as the global economic growth slows down and the economic and trade cycle goes down, overseas orders become more difficult. Can going out to sea to grab orders at this time change the export trend?

Wei Jianguo: The effect of grabbing orders at sea exceeded our expectation. It not only embodies China's innovative practice in foreign trade, but also enhances the recognition and affirmation of China products by global customers. The order we brought back this time is enough to meet the production capacity of some small factories for three years, and the money spent is worth it. More importantly, we will take grabbing orders at sea as a normal state in the future. This is not easy to make China's products familiar to more international customers, meet the requirements of more consumers in the global economic downturn, and thus get more orders.

In recent years, grabbing tickets at sea has been a brilliant move, especially in coastal areas. It should be said that this has greatly promoted China's foreign trade industry, will be further strengthened in the future, and will continue to develop in the central and western regions. At present, the central and western regions are more difficult, mainly due to inadequate government subsidies and asymmetric information. Going abroad to participate in the exhibition requires a lot of careful preparations.

I strongly encourage the foreign trade industry to carry forward the spirit of "four dares", that is, "cadres dare to take responsibility, localities dare to take risks, enterprises dare to act, and the masses dare to take the initiative", which was emphasized at the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Conference. At present, some private entrepreneurs have no energy and enthusiasm. I don't think they have seen the future global demand for goods from China and the overall economic development of China after the epidemic. After the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized boosting confidence and adhering to "two unswerving", it is also a good opportunity for private entrepreneurs to start a second business. Our foreign trade industry has a foundation. Under the current circumstances, private entrepreneurs must stand up bravely, don't be discouraged, don't hesitate and hesitate.

Published in China Newsweek magazine,No. 1075, 2023. 1.2.

Magazine title: Wei Jianguo: It should be the norm to grab orders at sea.

Reporter: Jiang Wei