What progress has been made in Iceland's financial crisis?

65438+1October 1 1, Iceland, which is in serious financial difficulties, reached an agreement with the British and Dutch governments respectively, agreeing to ensure that individual depositors in the two countries can get back their deposits in Icelandic banks taken over by the government through corresponding forms. With the aggravation of the financial crisis, it has become increasingly difficult for the Icelandic government to try to restore financial stability through the assistance of other countries. Iceland's banking industry grew rapidly in the mid-1990s due to the prosperity of the securities market, and now it has caused economic losses as high as nine times the annual gross national product (US$ 654.38+0.9 billion). This is a photo of a lagoon hot spring in Iceland (taken on March 25th, 2006). Xinhua News Agency/AFP

Iceland, a small Nordic country that has always been less concerned, has recently become the focus of world public opinion because of the news that the country is "on the verge of bankruptcy". But in people's impression, I have heard that this country is known as "the richest country in the world", "the most enterprising economy" and "the most peaceful country". So, what caused Iceland to become "poor overnight" and what is the so-called "bankrupt" Iceland now? With such questions, People's Daily reporter set foot on this country that is currently concerned by the whole world.

Observation: People's disapproval and the President's illness and hospitalization.

The reporter visited Iceland two years ago. At that time, the exchange rate between Icelandic krona and RMB was about 8 1. According to this calculation, Iceland at that time left the impression of "the country with the highest price" in the world. For example, buy a coke and a hamburger at a street convenience store, and the price is almost 200 yuan RMB; As for accommodation, even the cheapest youth hostel requires at least 700 yuan for everyone.

When the reporter returned to Iceland this time, his first discovery was that it had become a "shopping paradise". At present, the exchange rate between the Icelandic krona and the RMB is close to 15 1, which is nearly 1 times lower than two years ago. However, although the prices of various commodities have risen to a certain extent, compared with the devaluation of the currency, the increase is not very large, so consumption in Iceland is extremely cost-effective, and even many commodities can be called "the lowest price in the world". Therefore, the reporter found that the number of people in various shops in Iceland has not decreased compared with two years ago, but it seems to be more prosperous, and not only foreign tourists, but also Icelanders feel that this is a "shopping paradise", including the duty-free shops at the airport, and some expensive luxury goods are actually sold out.

On the streets of Reykjavik, the capital, Icelanders seem to be shopping almost happily, talking about the financial crisis and the country's "bankruptcy", and most Icelanders also show disapproval.

Atrasone, the owner of the hotel where the reporter stayed, said that when the news that Iceland was facing a serious financial crisis first came out, many people were really nervous, but perhaps too many media reports made people numb, or on second thought, things might not be so bad. So up to now, despite the international discussion about Iceland, everything seems normal to most people in Iceland.

Atrasone told reporters that in Iceland, where a high welfare policy is implemented, the proportion of deposits of the People's Bank of China to personal assets is not high; Although the money invested in the stock market has suffered heavy losses, it is idle money after all and will not seriously affect life; In addition, although the Icelandic krona has shrunk seriously, the price is relatively stable, so the living standard has not dropped significantly; On the contrary, due to the devaluation of the Icelandic krona, more foreigners have recently gone shopping in Iceland, which has correspondingly promoted the local tourism and business development.

For the future, atrazon is still optimistic. He said that financial markets go up and down, and nothing will only get worse and not get better. What's more, Iceland has a population of only 300,000, which is only equivalent to a small city in many countries. Although it is easy to fall into crisis, the so-called "small boat is easy to turn around" will get rid of the crisis faster.

Compared with the optimism of Icelanders, the government is much more nervous. Faced with the bad news of the country's acceptance of the three major banks, the currency crash and the suspension of stock trading, it is said that Icelandic President grimsson was admitted to the hospital in a hurry because of a heart attack.

The "anger" of senior government officials will also be stronger. On June 38+03, Icelandic Prime Minister Hadl severely criticized the British government for "intimidating small and weak neighbors" and freezing the funds of Icelandic banks. Iceland is prepared to take legal action against Britain for this. At that time, the reporter even felt a little shocked when he saw Hadl's speech on TV. It is hard to imagine that he was once called "the gentlest prime minister in the world" by many people.

Corresponding to nervousness and irritability, there is also pessimism in the government and financial circles. Icelandic government officials told the media that the country may return to the "fishing era"; In recent days, local TV stations are also broadcasting a talk show about bank employees. The bank employees interviewed also said that "the possibility of taking off the suit and putting on the fishing suit for a while is not ruled out".

Reflection: "Killer" and National "Stabilizer"

The pain has not yet been decided, and Iceland and even the whole world have begun to reflect on what makes the country face such a dilemma.

The first "murderer" was the "subprime mortgage crisis" initiated by the United States. Nowadays, many people think that "subprime mortgage" is an American problem. In fact, Iceland's "subprime mortgage" crisis is more serious. Atrasun's villa on the outskirts of Reykjavik was bought back by loan. At that time, the loan amount was about 5 million yuan. Later the bank persuaded him to link the loan with foreign exchange. As a result, Atrasun's mortgage has now reached more than 9 million, and the monthly payment has nearly tripled, so that they have to consider giving up repayment at present. Similar problems have happened to many Icelanders. Statistics show that the average debt borne by Icelandic households reaches 2 13% of disposable income, which is much higher than the ratio of the United States 140%.

The second "murderer" who was found out was the over-expanded banking industry. Iceland started out as a fishing industry, but fishing at sea is hard work after all, so about ten years ago, Iceland established the policy of "developing the financial industry rapidly". At present, the financial industry ranks first in the national economy, and the banking system is the main force in Iceland's stock market. In addition, Icelandic banks have investments all over the world. However, finance brought 7% to Iceland in 2005. The speed of economic growth that other developed countries dare not imagine has also caused Iceland to fall into bankruptcy crisis today. When the bank goes bankrupt, the country will face a dilemma: if the bankrupt bank is left to fend for itself, all state property will go up in smoke; However, if nationalized, the total liabilities of Icelandic banks with huge assets have reached 12 times of Iceland's GDP. If it is transferred to China, how can the country repay this debt?

The third "murderer" was an old ally, who stood by and even hit people when they were down. After the financial crisis in Iceland, we sought help from friendly partners such as Britain and Sweden, but the answer was simply "no". Not only that, Britain also introduced an anti-terrorism bill to freeze the assets of an Icelandic bank, which led to diplomatic disputes between the two countries.

This has triggered a series of criticisms from all walks of life, such as the poor financial supervision of the Icelandic government, the poor consumption habits of the people, and the imperfect free economic system. However, it is another story whether it is better to make up after the sheep dies and whether it is worth worrying about. The key now is how Iceland can prevent the country from really "collapsing".

Fortunately, as the reporter found in Iceland, most people seem to disapprove of the financial crisis. Although they will start to recalculate their personal assets and even plan to spend a period of "poverty", on the whole, the country is still stable and peaceful. With this foundation, Iceland will have the greatest capital to turn over salted fish in the future.

To explore the reasons, we have to say that Iceland's high welfare system can be called the "stabilizer" of the country in the face of this financial crisis.

Because Iceland has a small population, the welfare is almost all-inclusive: you don't have to worry about getting sick, because the medical expenses are almost all-inclusive; You don't have to pay tuition before you go to college; Don't be nervous when there are many children. Every child under the age of 18 in Iceland will get enough living allowance. There is little difference between unemployment benefits and wages earned by work; During sick leave and maternity leave, not only is the salary almost full, but even if the company lays off employees, it is also "exempt".

Although the huge welfare funds originally accumulated in Iceland have shrunk due to the depreciation of the Icelandic krona, as the "life-saving money" of the people, there is still a set of ways to maximize its value.

Atrasone told reporters that the fundamental reason why Icelanders are relatively calm in the face of this serious financial storm is that they have a perfect welfare system. Perhaps because of the country's difficulties, some benefits will be adjusted accordingly, and the welfare level will decline, but Icelanders are convinced that there will be no fundamental changes, at least to ensure national life.

Outlook: Economic Warning and Political Change

It is reported that in order to solve this serious financial crisis, Iceland not only continues to seek assistance from other countries, but also prepares to turn to the International Monetary Fund. However, considering that Iceland's current foreign debt is too large and most countries are facing financial crisis, the substantial improvement of Iceland's situation depends on the overall recovery of the global economy.

Trading in the Icelandic stock market was still suspended on Monday, but due to the general improvement of the global stock market that day, all walks of life in Iceland were generally full of confidence in the reopening of the 14 stock market. Torrisson, who works in a bank, told reporters that the foreign debt of 654.38+00 billion euros is a big figure for Iceland, but it is only "small money" for the international financial community. As long as it can continue to warm up for a period of time, the crisis in Iceland will be greatly improved. Now that major countries have introduced "rescue measures", it is time to restore investor confidence.

But in fact, no one can predict what will happen in the future. Perhaps the current situation in Iceland and the global financial crisis have not bottomed out. But so far, people can expect one or two changes in the international economic and political situation caused by Iceland's bankruptcy, and the lessons are also worthy of our vigilance:

First of all, people in Europe and America will be "once bitten, twice shy" and will be cautious about personal loans in the future. Some time ago, influenced by the American consumption pattern, people in some parts of China also entered the ranks of "ahead of consumption", and the lessons of Europeans and Americans have to attract our attention.

Secondly, all countries in the world will attach great importance to economic and financial supervision. The government has an unshirkable responsibility for the blind investment of Icelandic banks, while the United States insists on nationalizing some financial institutions despite some criticisms, believing that the country is moving towards socialism. This shows that the government's supervision should be more perfect rather than relaxed.

But in any case, even if the global economy goes out of the trough in the future, it will inevitably enter a "cautious period."

In addition, the financial crisis in Iceland also reflects the changes in the international political structure. Faced with a severe financial blow, Iceland turned to Russia for a loan of 4 billion euros, which attracted an uproar from international public opinion. Some western media commented that "the financial crisis is a good opportunity for Russia to re-enter Northern Europe politically".

In addition, in the face of this crisis, the cooperation of major western countries in dealing with other issues is far from as United as it seems. For example, there is no coordinated action within the EU. Some people say that "the selfish nature of countries was undoubtedly exposed before the financial crisis, which made EU integration more distant."

Although these small changes in the international political environment have been covered up by financial topics, we cannot forget that "after the economy, politics will always follow." (Special correspondent to Iceland: Radar) The Icelandic government took over the emergency freezing of the assets of Yingde, the largest bank in China.

On the 9th, the Icelandic government took over Kaupthing, the country's largest bank, and suspended trading in the stock market to prevent further financial panic in the country. Kaupthing is the third bank in Iceland to be taken over by the government. On the 8th, the British government vowed to take Iceland to court to safeguard the interests of its own people. At the same time, Iceland's president suffered a heart attack and is in stable condition. The Icelandic government has not yet decided whether to seek the help of the International Monetary Fund to solve the banking crisis. The Icelandic Financial Supervisory Authority, which took over Kaupthing Bank, said that the nationalization of banks was to protect Iceland's domestic banking system.