How did the stock market rise before and after National Day? Five dimensions reveal the main path@

80% probability of rising before and after National Day

By chance, I heard that A-shares have had an amazing pattern in the past ten years, that is, the stock market has performed very well before and after National Day. !

How good is it? In the past ten years, in the week before the National Day holiday, prices rose seven times out of 10; in the first week after the holiday, prices rose eight times out of 10 times.

Of course, eight increases in the past ten years does not mean that the probability of an increase is 80%. Statistically speaking, this is far from the required sample size for statistics. You should understand this.

However, we only have a stock market with a history of several decades. Even if you include more than 20 years together, it is still not enough sample.

In this case, we can subjectively guess from a logical level whether there is any logical support for the rise eight times out of ten.

What I can think of is that 2005-2007 itself was a big trend. After 2009, U.S. monetary policy had a huge impact on global stock markets, and the Federal Reserve held an interest rate meeting in mid-to-late September. We just experienced it last week. The picture below is last year’s Fed interest rate schedule. I remember that after the National Day in 2010, non-ferrous stocks drove the stock market to soar, which was also the second round of quantitative easing in the United States.

The second possibility is that around the National Day, the stock market news is generally warmer. I believe this is easy to understand.

The third possibility is from the game level. On the eve of the National Day holiday, most people The selling started not long ago, and the actual selling pressure may not be that big during the National Day week. In fact, this feeling should be felt before the Mid-Autumn Festival this year. Then, after the long holiday, this part of the funds will flow back. This logic is actually a bit like the Spring Festival holiday. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday, A-shares have very obvious patterns. I wrote an article last year.

However, if we look at the data before 2005, that is, not only the data of the last 10 years, we will find that in fact, the probability of the stock market performing well in the week before and the week after National Day is not that high. One guess is that before the bull market started in 2006, the stock market was a relatively niche market, dominated by professionals and heavy investors. This kind of travel by ordinary people has a relatively small impact on the market. In addition, Golden Week only started in 1999, so maybe the habit of traveling is still slowly developing. Therefore, in the first few long holidays, this capital tide was not so obvious.

To sum up, in any case, the performance in the last ten years before and after October 1 has some logical support. But it's far from scientific statistics, so just give it a reference. In actual operation, you still have to follow your own trading system.

Five dimensions reveal new paths for major investments

Recently, A-shares have been in a weak and volatile situation due to the game of existing funds. In this regard, analysts said that there is now insufficient incremental capital entering the market and supervision Tightening risk appetite has once again come under pressure, the rise of small-cap stocks has shown weakness, industrial capital has reduced its holdings and pressure has returned, expectations of RMB depreciation have revived, and liquidity will face pressure in the short term. Against this background, the flow and operation of various funds Layout has once again become the focus of attention from all parties. Today, in the form of a special topic, we will explore the latest trends in mainstream funds from five paths: block trading, Shanghai Stock Connect, Dragon and Tiger List, industrial capital, and margin trading, for the reference of investors.

Large transactions: Since September, the average daily transaction volume has been 81, an increase of 30% from the previous month.

During this period when the market maintained a box-like shock pattern, the volume of large transactions also declined compared with before. . According to statistics from the "Securities Daily" market research center, the volume of block transactions in August dropped to 47.18 billion yuan, ending the previous three consecutive months of rising trends. As of now, the volume of block transactions in the month is still hovering at 46.6 billion yuan. about.

From an industry perspective, as of September 22, the real estate industry ranked first with a monthly volume of 4.702 billion yuan, followed closely by the electronics industry, with a monthly volume of 4.582 billion yuan. , the monthly volume of large-scale transactions in the machinery and equipment and chemicals, commercial and banking industries also exceeded 4 billion yuan, with 4.498 billion yuan and 4.497 billion yuan respectively. The month-to-month large-scale transaction volume of non-bank finance and computer industries also reached 39.81 billion yuan respectively. billion and 3.879 billion yuan.

In terms of individual stocks, as of September 22, ***388 stocks have appeared on the block trading platform, and a total of 1,134 block transactions have been completed, with an average of 81 transactions per day, which is higher than The month-on-month increase in August was approximately 30%.

Judging from the number of times the above-mentioned stocks have appeared on the block trading platform, since September as of September 22, ***15 stocks have had 10 or more block trades, with Midea Group having the most block trades. , reaching 47 times, while the number of block transactions for Uoxin Travel and *ST Shanshui was 39 and 20 times respectively. In addition, stocks with block transactions reaching or exceeding 10 times during the period include Greenland Holdings, Jiai Technology, Blu-ray Development, Meinian Health, Electronic Technology Research Institute, Huangshi Group, Liuzhou Pharmaceutical, Leyard, SAIC, Ruimaotong, Yabang Co., Ltd., Jingfeng Pharmaceutical.

In terms of block trading volume since September as of September 22, ***112 stocks have a block trading volume exceeding 100 million yuan during the period. Specifically, Yongtai Energy’s block trading volume during the period The transaction volume ranked first, reaching 2,163,685,400 yuan. Gree Electric’s block transaction volume also exceeded 1 billion yuan during the period, reaching 1,130,311,700 yuan. In addition, Greenland Holdings, Jiai Technology, SDIC Anxin, Huangshi Group, Everbright Securities, The block trading volume of individual stocks such as Wutong Holdings also exceeded 800 million yuan during the period.

Some market participants said that under the current volatile market, investors should avoid stocks that have been underweight by industrial capital.

Second Shanghai Stock Connect: Net inflow of 2.414 billion yuan against the market trend during the month

Entering September, A-share trading continued to be light, and the volume remained low, especially in September Since the market gapped down on the 12th, the enthusiasm for capital participation has dropped rapidly. However, the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect funds are still relatively positive about the future performance of A-shares. Among the 15 trading days since September, 7 days of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect funds have been net outflows, and the remaining 8 days have all achieved net inflows. This Thursday, the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect funds Funds ended seven consecutive days of net outflows and achieved net inflows for two consecutive days on Thursday and Friday. The cumulative net inflow of funds was 1.801 billion yuan, and the cumulative net inflow during the month was 2.414 billion yuan.

According to the operation statistics of the top ten active stocks in the Shanghai Stock Connect, the Market Research Center of "Securities Daily" shows that the top ten active stocks in the Shanghai Stock Connect since September*** involve 39 A-share targets. In terms of the number of times on the list, 9 stocks including Kweichow Moutai, Ping An, Conch Cement, Minsheng Bank, CITIC Securities, Yili, Industrial Bank, China Merchants Bank, and China Construction Bank have all been on the list more than 5 times, 14 times, 14 times, 8 times, 7 times, 7 times, 7 times, 7 times, 6 times and 6 times are the targets that Shanghai Stock Connect funds are most concerned about in the short term.

Among the above-mentioned 39 top ten active stocks on the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, 23 active stocks have received net purchases since September in terms of net buying and selling amount. Among them, the cumulative net purchases of 7 stocks including Ping An of China, Hengtong Optoelectronics, Conch Cement, SAIC Group, Qingdao Haier, Poly Real Estate, and Hebang Biotech during the Shanghai Stock Connect period were more than 100 million yuan, reaching 1.104 billion yuan and 3.20 billion respectively. billion, 231 million yuan, 183 million yuan, 125 million yuan, 123 million yuan and 103 million yuan. In addition, stocks with cumulative net purchases of more than 50 million yuan by Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect funds during the month also include Yangtze Power, Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, Chihong Zinc and Germanium, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Guotai Junan, Tasly, Dongfang Jinyu and China State Construction.

With the support of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect funds, the market performance of the top ten active stocks in Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect during the month was also remarkable. According to statistics from a reporter from "Securities Daily", since September, in the above-mentioned 39 Among the top ten active stocks on the Shanghai Stock Connect, 22 stocks outperformed the market in stock price performance during the period (the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.67% cumulatively during the month), accounting for 56.41%. Among them, stocks such as Hebang Biotech, FiberHome Communications, and Changdian Technology all had cumulative gains of more than 10% during the period, 14.74%, 13.70%, and 10.10% respectively. In addition, stocks that achieved gains during the period also include Tasly (8.64%), China Dynamics (8.45%), Sinotrans Development (3.30%), Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (2.63%), Ping An of China (2.55%), and Yutong Bus (2.50%) ), Minsheng Bank (0.75%), Aerospace Power (0.71%), Haitong Securities (0.38%) and Hengtong Optoelectronics (0.15%), etc.

The market generally believes that, looking at the recent market performance, the hot spots of sectors and individual stocks have poor sustainability, the wait-and-see atmosphere is quite strong, and the market’s money-making effect is low. Whether the market can break the deadlock in the future depends on the market. attitudes towards foreign capital. In an environment of sluggish investment enthusiasm, foreign capital has flowed into the A-share market through the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, which has stabilized the A-share market to a certain extent. The movement of funds from the Shanghai Stock Connect reflects the investment judgment of international institutional investors on A-shares. Historically, it is forward-looking and highly accurate. Therefore, the future performance of the individual stocks purchased by the funds from the Shanghai Stock Connect is worth looking forward to. .

Three Dragons and Tigers List: 258 active stocks were on the Dragon and Tigers List during the month

Recently, the market has continued to emerge from the shrinking and volatile market. Faced with the dilemma of the market, many stocks However, individual stocks performed actively and frequently appeared on the Dragon and Tiger lists.

According to statistics from Flush Data, the Market Research Center of "Securities Daily" shows that since September, ***258 stocks have been on the Dragon and Tiger List, among which there are stocks that have been on the list more than 10 times in a month. 20 stocks. After excluding the newly listed stocks that have recently been listed, Oriental New Star, Guangyang Co., Ltd., China Electric Machinery Co., Ltd., Jinlun Co., Ltd. and other stocks ranked first on the list in the month, 12 times, 11 times, 11 times, and 10 times respectively.

According to the reasons for being on the list, 178 stocks were on the Dragon and Tiger list due to "the day's increase deviation reached 7%" during the month. Excluding the newly listed stocks that were recently listed, there were 152 stocks due to this. Reasons for being on the list, the total number of times it has been on the list is 192 times.

Among them, Sichuan Shuangma has been on the list 6 times due to "the day's increase deviation reached 7%" during the month. In addition, Lingnan Holdings (4 times), Oriental New Star (3 times), Liyuan Information (3 times), Taiji Holdings (3 times), 3 times), Antarctic E-commerce (3 times), Tianshan Textile (3 times), Gansu Electric Investment (3 times) and other stocks also appeared on the list 3 times or more in the month.

Judging from the data on the Dragon and Tiger List, among the 152 stocks mentioned above, 31 stocks on the Dragon and Tiger List have cumulative net purchases exceeding 100 million yuan, including Xinwangda, Fiyta A, An The cumulative net purchases of Jie Technology and Amway shares exceeded 200 million yuan, respectively 233.429 million yuan, 213.3873 million yuan, 212.3526 million yuan, and 207.4316 million yuan, while Lanshi Heavy Equipment, Fangda Chemical, Cooltech Power, and Rongji The net purchase amount of stocks such as Software, Jinke Co., Ltd., Qianzhao Optoelectronics, Nationstar Optoelectronics, Shenzhen SEG, and Sun Cable is also more than 150 million yuan.

In terms of market performance, the above-mentioned 152 stocks on the list include almost all the bull stocks during the month. Among them, Sichuan Shuangma’s stock price doubled during the month, with a cumulative increase of 105.97%, while Liyuan Information (65.00 %), Taiji Holdings (46.45%), Mengcao Ecology (41.04%), Jinlun Holdings (40.83%), Dayang Chuangshi (40.63%), Lingnan Holdings (40.60%) and other stocks also experienced a cumulative increase of 40% during the month The above have become the most dazzling star stocks in the current volatile market.

It is worth mentioning that the above-mentioned stocks are generally the leading targets in popular concept sectors. Taking Mengcao Ecology as an example, the company is one of the leaders in the PPP concept in the two cities. From an industry perspective, mechanical equipment, chemicals, electronics, electrical equipment, etc. are the first-level industries with the highest concentration of stocks on the list during the month.

Fourth Industry Capital: Increased holdings of 9 stocks including Three Gorges Water Conservancy for more than 2 billion yuan

According to statistics from Flush Data, the Market Research Center of "Securities Daily" shows that since September, the total number of industrial capital There were 624 moves, involving 234 individual stocks, of which 85 stocks received a net increase in holdings from industrial capital within the month, and 147 stocks experienced a net decrease in holdings. Overall, the cumulative net reduction in industrial capital holdings during the month was approximately 581 million yuan.

In this regard, analysts said that the reduction of the shares of most listed companies shows that industrial capital is more cautious about the future trend of A-shares. However, because of this, individual stocks that have recently received a net increase in holdings of industrial capital It requires more attention. Generally speaking, the main reason why industrial capital increases its holdings of its own stocks is that it is optimistic about the company's future development situation and the current stock price is underestimated by the market. In the current weak market, the positive operation of industrial capital further highlights its confidence in the recovery of the company's stock price, and Paying attention to relevant stocks on dips is a better strategy for current investors.

Specifically, judging from the net increase in shareholdings during the month, 24 stocks in the two cities received more than one million shares from industrial capital during the month. Among them, Three Gorges Water Conservancy, Xinzhu Holdings, and Dongfang The net increase in shares held by industrial capital during the month for 8 stocks including Huaneng Energy, Jinke Shares, Shengtun Mining, Hengshun Zhongsheng, Xi'an Tourism, and ST Huiqiu all exceeded 10 million shares.

It is worth noting that during the month, the net increase in industrial capital holdings of 11 companies exceeded 1% of the company’s total outstanding shares, including Kangyue Technology (7.48%) and Three Gorges Water Conservancy (5.59%). , Xinzhu Holdings (5.15%), and Xi'an Tourism (5.05%), the net increase in shareholdings in 4 stocks accounted for more than 5% of the outstanding shares. In addition, stocks such as ST Huiqiu, Panda Financial Holdings, Hengshun Zhongsheng, and North Latitude Communications The net increase in holdings also reached more than 2% of the total number of outstanding shares.

Good performance expectations have undoubtedly given industrial capital more confidence to increase their holdings of their own stocks. According to statistics, among the above-mentioned 85 companies that have received net increases in their holdings within the month, 38 companies have disclosed third-quarter performance forecasts , among which 29 companies had promising results. Among them, seven companies including Hengyi Petrochemical, Suzhou Good Technetium, Donghua Energy, Shirong Zhaoye, Shenglu Communications, Zhongnan Culture, and Commodity City are expected to double their third-quarter results year-on-year, while two companies, Northern Latitude Communications and Ruitai Technology The company expects its performance to turn around year-on-year.

In terms of market performance, among the 87 stocks mentioned above, 14 stocks have a cumulative increase of more than 10% during the month, including Dayang Chuangshi (40.63%), Three Gorges Water Conservancy (24.94%), Xi'an Tourism (24.72%), Stocks such as Shanxi Sanwei (23.11%), Jiuding Investment (22.78%), Gree Electric Appliances (20.99%), and Jinke Shares (20.96%) all experienced cumulative gains of more than 20% during the month, showing that industrial capital is optimistic about its own stocks with practical actions. Later, the market also took a more positive attitude towards related stocks.

Five margin financing: net financing purchases of 53 underlying stocks exceeded 100 million yuan within the month

The continuation of the current stock game market has caused the market impact of the changes in the financing of the two financing was gradually amplified. According to statistics from the Securities Daily Market Research Center, as of September 22, the balance of margin financing and securities lending in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 896.028 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 0.16%, ending the previous three consecutive increases.

In terms of industries, since September as of September 22, 10 categories of applications, including banking, household appliances, real estate, building decoration, chemicals, public utilities, automobiles, leisure services, food and beverages, and machinery and equipment, have In case the first-level industry showed a net purchase status of financing during the period, the net financing purchases during the period were 1025.5035 million yuan, 1005811.7 million yuan, 996.918 million yuan, 961.7870 million yuan, 824.1256 million yuan, 681.4008 million yuan, 220.1988 million yuan, 130.7033 million yuan. yuan, 47.6921 million yuan, 32.4739 million yuan.

As for the underlying stocks of margin financing and securities lending, since September as of September 22, ***307 underlying stocks have shown a net buying trend of financing during the period, and the cumulative net buying amount of financing during the period reached 238.88 billion. Among them, the net financing purchase amount of 248 underlying stocks during the period was more than 10 million yuan, and the net financing purchase amount of 53 underlying stocks during the period exceeded 100 million yuan. Specifically, Vanke A (2357.7275 million yuan), Gree Electric Appliances (1491.7587 million yuan), Minsheng Bank (859.1347 million yuan), Dongxu Optoelectronics (699.4625 million yuan), Sanju Environmental Protection (621.1551 million yuan), China Dynamics (401.7494 million yuan) million), Oriental Garden (360.5721 million yuan), Mengcao Ecology (351.8735 million yuan), Anhui Water Conservancy (346.5733 million yuan), CITIC Securities (344.8575 million yuan), China Security and Fire Protection (339.9017 million yuan), Pacific Ocean (337.3814 million yuan) ), Songdu Shares (291.4913 million yuan), Tasly (289.827 million yuan), Chint Electric (284.2129 million yuan), Zhongke Sanhuan (270.6884 million yuan) and other stocks that have been relatively active in the market recently. Net financing purchase amount during the period At the forefront.

It is worth mentioning that, judging from the ratio of purchases to repayments during the period, Minsheng Bank (2.3006 times), Xinli Financial (2.2480 times), China Dynamics (1.7586 times), Tsingtao Brewery ( 1.6655 times), Tasly (1.4981 times), Bank of Communications (1.4741 times), Gree Electric Appliances (1.4682 times), Binhua Shares (1.4491 times), Songdu Shares (1.4488 times), Sinochem International (1.4233 times) and other stocks. The proportion ranks among the top, and the purchase amount reaches more than 1.4 times of the repayment amount.

In this regard, some analysts said that the smaller repayment amount shows that the financiers have less disagreement about the future trend of the relevant targets, and that such individual stocks are more likely to rise out of shock or even rise unilaterally in the future. Quotes.

So, how is the secondary market performance of the above-mentioned underlying stocks that are favored by financing customers? Statistics show that among the underlying stocks that were net purchased through financing during the above-mentioned presentation period, a total of 149 stocks have achieved gains since September. Among them, 28 stocks have experienced a cumulative increase of more than 10% since September. Mengcao Ecology, Shangying Global , Xinli Financial, Three Gorges Water Conservancy, Shenhua Holdings, Gree Electric Appliances, and Junzheng Group have a cumulative increase of more than 20% during the period, respectively 41.04%, 34.60%, 31.90%, 24.94%, 24.94%, 20.99%, and 20.67%.