How long will it take to recover the impact of the epidemic on tourism?

In 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic has caused great losses to the global tourism industry. In particular, almost all tourist attractions and play projects in China have been closed, traffic has been suspended, and tourism 100% has stopped running, which has caused a huge impact on tourism. So how long will it take for tourism to fully recover after the epidemic?

Recently, the World Tourism and Travel Council (WTTC) released a research report on the global tourism crisis, saying that the average recovery period of epidemics affecting tourism is 19.4 months.

Last year, the World Tourism and Travel Council cooperated with GlobalRescue, focusing on the analysis of the impact of 90 international crises on countries and cities during the period from 200 1 to 20 18, expounding the risks faced by the global tourism industry, putting forward suggestions to deal with the crisis, and bringing together extensive opinions from the government, non-public sectors, destination institutions, international organizations and associations, and scholars.

According to the report, with global connectivity, convenient travel and the rise of wealthy people, international tourism has shown a significant growth trend. From 1950 to 20 18, the number of international arrivals increased by 5500%. At the same time, tourism has brought huge economic and social benefits, created millions of employment opportunities, protected natural and cultural wealth, promoted prosperity, reduced poverty and improved education. However, from geopolitical and geo-economic tensions to terrorism, to changing health threats and escalating environmental threats, the world risk pattern is changing, and new risks are constantly reshaping the global ecosystem.

The report divides the common crises in tourism into four categories: terrorism, social unrest, natural disasters and epidemic outbreaks. It is mentioned that in 90 crises, 12 was an epidemic outbreak.

According to the report, the outbreak has become the new normal, and the impact of an epidemic like H 1N 1 on the global economy is estimated to be between 45 billion and 55 billion US dollars. The average recovery period of epidemic disease is 19.4 months, and the time span is 10 to 34.9 months. Terrorism is also a matter of great concern to many international travelers.

But in fact, the probability of becoming a victim of terrorism is low, so the tourism industry rebounds quickly. The tourism recovery time in the areas affected by terrorist attacks is the shortest, with an average of 1 1.5 months, ranging from 2 months to 42 months. However, political instability or social unrest is far more harmful to a country's tourism than terrorist attacks. The average recovery period of political instability and civil strife events is the longest, which is 22.2 months, ranging from 10 to 44.9 months.

In recent years, the frequency and degree of natural disasters have increased sharply. The number of natural disasters has quadrupled from 1970 to 20 16, and the recovery time span is the longest, from 1 month to 93 months, with an average of 16.2 months.

The report suggests that identifying and understanding all kinds of risks is only the first step. Tourism must establish a diversified, dynamic and decentralized risk prevention layout and implement the overall mechanism of classified policy and classified operation.

It will take at least 1 year for tourism to recover.

Nanfang Daily: How long do you expect the impact to last?

Bao Jigang: The number of infected people in COVID-19 has far exceeded that of SARS. During the period of SARS, 8422 clinically diagnosed cases and 9 16 deaths were reported in 29 countries around the world. As of 0: 00 on March 3rd, 80 15 1 case was diagnosed nationwide, with 2943 deaths, 20/2010 cases diagnosed overseas and 84 deaths. At present, it is 10.9 times that of SARS. At present, it seems that the epidemic prevention and control has achieved phased results, and the number of newly diagnosed people in the country has steadily declined. Since February 16, the number of newly diagnosed cases in Guangdong has been lower than 10, and the number of newly diagnosed cases was zero on March 2. There are also 0 new cases in many provinces and cities in China, but for Hubei, the total number of new cases is still very large.

From the perspective of government supervision, there is still uncertainty about the time when tourism will be fully opened. On the other hand, although some local tourist attractions have been opened, there are not many real tourists, and the recovery of tourists' confidence will lag behind. At the same time, compared with other industries, tourism is not the most needed industry in life, so the opening time of tourism is lagging behind.

Without considering other factors, if the epidemic ends in the first half of the year, we can roughly make the following judgment: judging from the cycle of China's economic development and the natural development law of the tourism market, domestic tourism will resume growth in the second half of 2020, and even exceed the scale level of the same period of 20 19 in the second half of 2026, and the recovery time of tourism generally takes about 1 year.

Core view: the development speed of global tourism will slow down.

Nanfang Daily: What impact will the COVID-19 epidemic have on the development of international tourism?

Bao Jigang: Internationally, the epidemic situation in COVID-19 has a greater impact than that of SARS in 2003. According to the statistics of WTTC World Tourism Council, the losses caused by SARS to global tourism in 2003 were 30 billion to 50 billion dollars. In 2003, China people traveled abroad, accounting for 1.5% of the global total. By 20 18, the number of outbound tourists in China will be 654.38+77 million, accounting for 16% of global tourism consumption. Professor Zhao Jinlin, an American Chinese, pointed out in his article that according to incomplete statistics, the COVID-19 epidemic will reduce the short-term tourism income of Southeast Asian countries that mainly rely on China to travel abroad by 30%. For example, in Thailand, China is the largest tourist source country in Thailand, and the consumption of tourists from China accounts for 2.7% of the GDP. In 20 19, tourists from China contributed1800 million dollars to Thailand, while in 2020124 to 3 1 day, tourists from China decreased by 60% and lost 294 million dollars a week. It is estimated that Thailand's revenue from/kloc-0 to June will decrease by 9.7 billion US dollars. In 20 19, tourists from China accounted for 7% of American tourists, and tourists from China spent $34 billion in the United States. Due to the outbreak of the epidemic, the United States will lose $654.38+003 billion in tourism economic income.

In terms of world tourism, China is the main source country of world tourism, and its contribution rate to world tourism is above 12%. The impact of this epidemic on the world tourism industry is also enormous. As far as its overall impact is concerned, the development speed of global tourism will slow down this year, and the growth rate will form a development trend of zero or negative growth.

Core point: A temporary crisis can't stop the development of tourism.

Nanfang Daily: After SARS in 2003, the tourism industry maintained a long-term double-digit growth. In your opinion, after the COVID-19 epidemic, can tourism continue to maintain rapid growth? Will the fundamentals of tourism change?

Bao Jigang: Judging from the situation after all the "disasters" in history (World War I, Great Depression, World War II, earthquake and tsunami, financial crisis, SARS), tourism has not died out, not only has it not died out, but also has an increasing proportion in the global economy. Tourism is the embodiment of people's pursuit of a better lifestyle. We can draw a conclusion that tourism is an eternal sunrise industry, and a temporary crisis can't stop the development of tourism. This is also the * * * knowledge that colleagues in the tourism industry should master.

Judging from the recovery of tourism, domestic tourism, especially short-distance tourism, is the first to recover, and outbound tourism may take some time to recover. Outbound tourism may also be affected by China's foreign exchange income, which is positively related to it, and the recovery of inbound tourism may take longer. At the same time, holiday tourism and natural health tourism will increase greatly; Urban tourism consumption will be more active, and rural tourism around the city will increase substantially; Tourism will recover greatly in areas with large natural geographical scale and areas with light epidemic situation; Group travel, especially long-distance group travel, takes some time to recover. Individual tours, especially self-driving family tours, will recover greatly, while long-distance travel chartered cars and special trains will recover slowly.

Thoughts on industrial development

Core point: don't exaggerate the loss of tourism.

Nanfang Daily: At present, many media are predicting that the COVID-19 epidemic will cause the national tourism industry to lose trillions. What do you think of this judgment?

Bao Jigang: As for the domestic influence, I think some media or experts have calculated too much at present. Their basis is that the total national tourism revenue in 20 19 is 6.5 trillion RMB, but the question is, how is 6.5 trillion RMB calculated? The other is the data released by Ctrip. Ctrip announced that it is estimated that there will be 450 million trips in the country during the Spring Festival in 2020, and the tourism income will be no less than 550 billion. However, among these 450 million people, a considerable number are returning home. Although they are all "mobile", are they still "tourists"?

Core view: "Retaliatory growth" is a false concept.

Nanfang Daily: Many media and think tanks predict that after SARS in 2003, there will be a high probability of retaliatory growth in the tourism consumption market. what do you think?

Bao Jigang: Whether there will be so-called "retaliatory growth" depends on which stage the index is based on, whether it is compared with the present or the same period last year. Compared with now, it must be retaliatory growth, because now it is zero. But if you say that it is not necessarily the same as last year, is the double-digit growth a retaliatory growth? We should treat statistics more realistically to understand tourism. Major tourism research think tanks should also do in-depth research in a realistic way, instead of following others' advice or grandstanding, and put forward some practical measures, which is what our think tanks should do.

Core view: Take the opportunity to squeeze out the "bubble" of tourism statistics

Nanfang Daily: If the current media's prediction of tourism losses is unscientific, how should we understand the statistics more scientifically?

Bao Jigang: After the outbreak, we should take the opportunity of "zeroing" in the tourism industry, squeeze out the bubble of statistics, know the tourism industry realistically, and introduce the geographical scale for statistics, that is, count tourists according to the geographical scale of provinces, cities and counties. At present, the disadvantage is that a large number of data are superimposed. A Hunan tourist went to Guangzhou, Foshan and Zhuhai, and he was counted in the number of tourists in the three places. Finally, the number of tourists is summed up, and 1 person becomes three, which will have a superposition effect, resulting in the data being inconsistent with reality. After introducing the geographical scale, we can calculate the data of tourists from other provinces more accurately by counting the number of people from other provinces to Guangdong according to the trajectory.

The data may also be a bubble. Taking students as an example, 80% of the first-year undergraduates in the Tourism College of Sun Yat-sen University have more than two mobile phone numbers, one in their hometown and the other in their study place. This dual-card dual-standby makes the number of tourists in telecom data calculation increase in disguise. In addition, people who take the high-speed train and expressway by car, such as those who travel from Guangzhou to Kunming and pass through Guangxi and Guizhou, are recorded as tourists in Guangxi and Guizhou, but actually do not spend money in Guangxi and Guizhou. Take Spring Festival travel rush as an example. Returnees are counted in the number of tourists, but the consumption of accommodation and catering will be lower than that of normal tourists. Therefore, after the epidemic, we have the opportunity to get a more scientific and accurate data from scratch for tourism research and decision-making.

Core point: Re-recognize the fragility of tourism.

Nanfang Daily: Many people say that tourism is a sunrise industry, but it is also a very fragile industry. How to understand the fragility of tourism?

Bao Jigang: Tourism has its very fragile side. Any unexpected events have a very direct and serious impact on the tourism industry, and the industry risks are very high. Tourism products can't be stored, unlike cars and food. If you can't sell it today, you can sell it tomorrow. If you can't sell it in one place, you can't sell it in another. Compared with other industries, this is a fragile place for tourism. Therefore, tourism demand is sensitive and tourism industry is fragile, but the fragility of the industry does not mean that there is no vitality or potential for future development.

Core view: The current tourism investment model is too heavy.

Nanfang Daily: In recent years, tourism has shown the characteristics of large investment and long cycle, but the fragility makes the risk of tourism enterprises too high. How should we look at this problem?

Bao Jigang: While academic circles are talking about fragility, they have recently talked more about resilience, that is, the resilience of a tourist destination or product after the crisis. In fact, what we used to say about tourism-less investment, quick results and low cost-is just the opposite. In the primary stage of tourism development, it actually presents the economic characteristics of * * *. Take Yangshuo as an example. At first, the tourism industry used its facade to sell beer and food, and set aside two rooms for accommodation, which meant less investment. Later, when the economy developed well, the pursuit of five-star hotels and even hotels with international brands became a big investment and a long cycle. The result is very risky, so we should take this opportunity to reflect.

Therefore, under the cognition of vulnerability and resilience, it should be considered that the bearing capacity of tourism enterprises is different in different aspects. For example, people's houses are becoming more and more high-end, showing their vulnerability in the face of the epidemic. Should we pay more attention to the earliest flexible travel mode, that is, less investment, quick results and high returns? That is to say, we should return to the concept of alternative development and inclusive development academically, instead of blindly pursuing the amount of investment.

Core view: provide better public management services.

Nanfang Daily: In your opinion, after the outbreak, from what aspects should cultural and tourism departments at all levels formulate and introduce relevant policies to effectively stimulate the demand-side market and help the tourism industry recover its industrial vitality?

Bao Jigang: I am more concerned about whether there will be mass layoffs and whether many people will lose their jobs. There are 28.26 million people directly employed in tourism, and 799 10000 people directly and indirectly employed in tourism, accounting for 10.29% of the total employed population in China. If the employment in the tourism industry is stabilized, it will largely stabilize the employment fundamentals of the country and make the society more stable.

As for how to restore the vitality of the industry, I don't think the government has much motivation. As long as the economy develops steadily, tourism will rise. There is also the "consumption tax legislation" mentioned by the state last year. It is estimated that the implementation of the National People's Congress this year will essentially stimulate local governments to attach importance to the development of tourism, because tourism consumption can be directly reflected in local taxes. Therefore, the most important thing for the government is to provide better public management services after controlling the epidemic, because no matter what happens this time, the demand for tourism will still exist. At the same time, from the perspective of industrial development, it is necessary to adjust the basic thinking of the construction of tourism supply system and replace "tourism+"with "+tourism" to promote the construction of tourism supply system.