What substantial impact did the epidemic have on tourism?

As we all know, during the epidemic, the tourism industry was particularly hard hit. We can all see the "trauma" of this industry, and it is easy to understand the sharp drop in demand.

Take flying as an example. OAG, an international travel data provider, made a statistic. In May, the number of global flights dropped by about 70% compared with last year. In the United States and Europe, where the epidemic is more serious, the number of flights in May decreased by nearly 85% year-on-year. For example, London Heathrow Airport handled 6.8 million passengers in April last year, compared with 200,000 in April this year; The US traffic safety department handled 70 million passengers in April last year, and only 3.2 million this year.

Compared with Europe and America, the situation in China is certainly much better, but from the data, the recovery process still has a long way to go. According to OAG statistics, as of May, the number of flights in China is still 30% lower than last year.

However, if we only look at the decline in demand, we can't fully understand the impact of this incident on tourism. Tourism is a very special industry. What is special is that the business model of this industry determines that it is originally an industry with weak pressure resistance. The sharp drop in demand is the trauma of tourism; The fragility of tourism itself is also creating "internal injuries".

Let's take the aviation industry as an example. If you don't know this industry, you may feel very rich. After all, flying once is so expensive, and there are various charging services on the plane.

But this is not the case at all. The aviation industry is a "small profits but quick turnover" industry. How thin is the profit?

The Wall Street Journal made an analysis and said that in foreign countries, if a flight has 100 seats, what is the profit? The profit is only 1 seat.

The remaining 99 seats cover various costs, such as 29 seats for fuel costs, 20 seats for personnel salaries, 14 seats for government taxes, 1 1 seat for maintenance costs and so on. Anyway, such a plane with 100 passengers needs 99% attendance to make money.

Of course, generally speaking, it's not that exaggerated. Generally speaking, for foreign airlines, it is possible to make money if the attendance rate reaches 2/3.

What is the situation in our country? I saw an analysis in the "Lan Yi Shuo" on the official account of WeChat. A domestic flight can earn one or two cups of Starbucks money from each passenger.

If you take out the profits of the three major domestic airlines and divide them by the number of passengers transported, you will find that Air China transports an ordinary passenger and earns 63 yuan; China Eastern Airlines earned 27 yuan; China Southern Airlines earned 20 yuan, and the performance of these three major airlines has been very good.

Of course, this calculation method is rough, but through this account, we can intuitively understand why the tourism industry is not strong in resisting attacks.

So you see, why do I say that tourism may have to change? If the epidemic continues or breaks out repeatedly in different places and seasons, it is difficult for tourism to resist such risks and uncertainties under such a fragile business model.