When will tourism recover after the epidemic?

The spread of novel coronavirus in Wuhan is very rapid, so all localities have taken strict measures to control the flow of people, which is also the best way to prevent the outbreak of the epidemic. Tourism has almost stopped in the last month, so when will tourism be affected by the epidemic?

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, in order to effectively cut off the transmission route of the virus and resolutely curb the spread of the epidemic, the General Office of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued the "Emergency Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Prevention and Control of Pneumonia Infection in novel coronavirus and Suspending the Business Activities of Tourism Enterprises" on126, requesting the national travel agencies and online travel enterprises to suspend the operation of group tours and "air ticket hotels" tourism products.

Temporary refund of travel deposit is a short-term effective measure.

After the announcement, the tourism industry came to a standstill. Teacher Hao is a practitioner in the tourism industry. After the outbreak, all the travel agencies in the country closed down. In an interview with China Economic Times, he said that he lost his job during this period.

The Spring Festival is the busiest time in previous years. He said, "This year's epidemic has cost me nearly 5 million business." In order to make a living, he sells disinfection products in a circle of friends. He told reporters that many of his friends in this industry have switched to e-commerce.

It is also difficult to travel in the company. A person in charge of a travel company in Beijing told the reporter that due to the epidemic, all the business of their company stopped, basically in a state of suspension, but they still have to pay rent, wages and other expenses, and the cost accounted for the main expenditure.

"I don't know how long the epidemic will last. The company is now in a tight cash flow. " He said anxiously.

The epidemic situation is fierce and has a great impact on all walks of life. The government introduced some support measures in time to help enterprises tide over the difficulties. Recently, the tourism industry, which has been most affected, has also received support policies.

On February 5th, the General Office of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued a notice, and decided to temporarily refund part of the tourism service quality deposit (hereinafter referred to as the "deposit") to the travel agency. It is understood that the deposit is a certain amount of funds paid by the travel agency in the designated bank or guaranteed by the bank according to the provisions of the Tourism Law of the People's Republic of China and the Regulations on Travel Agencies, which is used for compensation payment for the quality of tourism services and the personal safety of group tourists.

The scope of this temporary withdrawal is all travel agencies in China that have paid the deposit and obtained the travel agency business license according to law. The standard for temporary withdrawal is 80% of the existing payment. It also requires local cultural and tourism administrative departments to organize the implementation in accordance with relevant regulations and complete the withdrawal of temporary deposits within one month from the date of issuance of this notice.

As soon as this policy was introduced, local governments responded in succession. On February 6th, Beijing issued "16 measures" to promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. One of them suggested that travel agencies with standardized operation and good reputation should return the quality deposit in full in accordance with relevant regulations, and then pay it in due course after the epidemic ends. In addition, Beijing extended the collection period of social insurance premiums due during the epidemic to the end of July.

On February 7th, Shanghai began to temporarily withdraw part of the tourism service quality deposit according to the application of travel agencies. Shanghai * * * has 1782 travel agency to participate in this temporary withdrawal. At present, the deposit is about 720 million yuan, and the temporary retirement standard is 80% of the existing payment amount. It is estimated that the burden will be reduced by about 576 million yuan.

Be prepared for long-term difficulties.

Wei, dean of the Cultural and Economic Research Institute of the Central University of Finance and Economics, said in an interview with the China Economic Times reporter that refunding the deposit is a flexible way of support in the short term, which can alleviate the problem of insufficient cash flow of enterprises.

He believes that in response to the impact of the epidemic, policy measures should be divided into short-term and long-term. At present, the shortage of funds is the biggest difficulty faced by tourism enterprises.

In the long run, Wei believes that in view of the increasing pressure of domestic economic upgrading and transformation, slowing growth trend and persistent export pressure, the period and complexity of cultural tourism market repair affected by the epidemic should be longer and more complicated than that during the SARS period, which is not optimistic. So be prepared for long-term difficulties.

He believes that the rescue measures to deal with long-term difficulties need systematic and special arrangements, such as reducing the income tax of severely affected enterprises this year to reduce the pressure of subsequent operations. But the point is to find ways to stimulate consumption. "Whether tourism enterprises can survive after the epidemic and survive better depends on the consumer market." He said.

However, in Wei's view, after the epidemic, people's fears still exist in the short term, and crowded industries will not be eliminated at once. Therefore, he believes that after the outbreak, from the perspective of tourism enterprises themselves, they should vigorously develop smart tourism and use AR experiential projects to alleviate the impact of the epidemic.

In addition, he also suggested actively promoting the international development of China's cultural and tourism industries, expanding the global industrial chain and market space, and increasing the pressure risks that industries and markets that are highly dependent on domestic demand may face.

Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, domestic tourism almost stopped during the Spring Festival. As the national and local governments have successively issued plans and assistance measures for cultural tourism enterprises to resume work and production, some scenic spots have been reopened one after another, which means that the tourism industry has resumed recovery. However, in the face of the crisis, the transformation of tourism has just begun.

A sudden epidemic has caused the fiery Spring Festival tourism market to press the "pause button". A few days ago, china tourism academy published the "Blue Book of China Tourism Economy No.1 12" on the Internet, pointing out that "highly market-oriented tourism is one of the industries that have suffered the biggest decline due to the epidemic."

With the introduction of plans and assistance measures for cultural tourism enterprises in various provinces, some outdoor scenic spots have been reopened, which means that the tourism industry has begun to restart the road of recovery. Dai Bin, president of china tourism academy, said that the confidence of the tourism industry is slowly thawing, but it will face new challenges and changes.

A "frozen" market

"Around New Year's Day, a wave of special promotions and marketing we made for the winter vacation and the Spring Festival Golden Week were all in vain." Zhao Chunwei, head of the marketing department of Wansheng Ordovician scenic spot in Chongqing, lamented that the whole scenic spot was closed due to the epidemic. The Spring Festival, which has always been lively, has become leisure this year.

Ma Dejun and Zhao Chunwei, marketing staff of Nanchuan Jinfo Mountain Scenic Area, feel the same way. He bluntly said that this year's Spring Festival is his longest holiday in more than ten years.

With the closure of scenic spots, the cancellation of activities, the closure of hotels, and the stop of receiving customers by travel agencies and online travel companies, the domestic tourism industry has completely stopped working and the market has been forced to freeze.

As for the impact of the epidemic on domestic tourism, china tourism academy made a calculation. It is estimated that the number of domestic tourists will decrease by 56% and 15.5% respectively in the first quarter and the whole year of 2008, with a year-on-year decrease of 932 million. Domestic tourism revenue decreased by 69% and 20.6% respectively, and the annual decrease was1.65,438+0.8 trillion yuan.

"I panicked and was at a loss." The words of the tour guide in Jun Chen also expressed the desire of tourism. Jun Chen has been taking a tour group in Chongqing for a long time. 1 At the beginning of the year, the group list in hand has been placed on the fifth day of the first month. I wanted to use the Spring Festival to increase my income, but I didn't expect the sudden outbreak to disrupt the overall plan.

"The tour guide must have been greatly influenced." Zhao Chunwei said that most tour guides do not have a basic salary, and their income mainly depends on group service fees. As soon as the tourism market stopped, many people confiscated it.

Zhou, an expert in Phoenix Tourism Think Tank, believes that the daily operation and maintenance costs are low after the closure of traditional famous scenic spots, and the impact is not too great.

With your fingers, you can walk into the museum, visit all the scenic spots of online celebrities and listen to the gold medal explanations. This is the online travel service "Yunyou Chongqing" recently launched by Chongqing Cultural Tourism Commission on WeChat official account. The reporter experienced it personally, clicked "Online Museum" in the column of "Fighting Epidemic", and entered official micro-museums such as Chongqing China Three Gorges Museum, Chongqing Natural Museum, Chongqing Three Gorges Immigrant Memorial Hall and Chongqing Hongyan Revolutionary History Museum through QR code. You can watch the exhibition online 24 hours a day.

"Yunyou Chongqing is an online service launched during the epidemic, which allows people to satisfy their travel wishes without leaving home, and at the same time keeps the scenic spots concerned." The relevant person in charge of the Chongqing Cultural Tourism Commission said that famous scenic spots in Chongqing can be searched from this platform.

It is reported that "cloud tourism" is a new attempt to travel during the epidemic. At present, there are at least 20 cities in China, and more than 1000 scenic spots have opened online travel services, providing different experiences for many people who are eager to travel.

"Fully demonstrate its tourism image and resource advantages through VR, high-definition video and graphic materials. It can provide rich cultural and tourism content for people who look forward to staying at home for a long time during the epidemic, and on the other hand, it can help tourist destinations prepare for the recovery and development of tourism after the epidemic. " Wang Kai, vice president of Tongcheng Yilong, said. According to reports, Tongcheng Yilong also initiated the establishment of the city's "Ark Alliance" to provide free tourism promotion services, including VR and high-definition video materials, to all tourist destinations that have joined the alliance.

"In the face of the current situation, enterprises should help each other in the same boat and overcome the difficulties together." People in the tourism industry pointed out that some enterprises in the industry have begun to pick up. For example, the "Store Care Plan" launched by Ctrip Group includes a three-month management fee during the temporary immunization period, and the signing task of each store is extended by three months to ease the pressure on store operations. Fei announced the launch of a tourism entrepreneurship assistance program, including traffic support, free annual fee and commission, preferential loan interest rate, transformation support and insurance escort.

Opportunities behind the crisis

Although the epidemic has caused a crisis to the tourism industry, with the gradual thawing of the frozen market, many people in the industry said that they should see the opportunities behind the crisis and predict the new pattern and opportunities after the epidemic.

Hong Qinghua, the founder of Donkey Mama and the chairman of Jingyu Donkey Mama Group, said that the tourism industry that was pressed the pause button actually won a rare "meditation period".

Not long ago, Chongqing Municipal Commission of Culture and Tourism held "Learning on the Cloud". Nearly 300 people from more than 200 tourism enterprises learned the ideas and methods to deal with the withdrawal of tour groups under the influence of the epidemic through online lectures, which made positive preparations for effectively handling tourism disputes under special circumstances, reducing the losses of consumers and tourists and revitalizing the tourism industry.

"This lecture is too timely. It has cleared the way for solving the problems we are currently encountering, and it also allows us to see the hope of returning to work and giving birth. " Liu Jin, vice president of Chongqing CYTS co., ltd. said.

The reporter found that using this time to study is also a keen way for many practitioners in the industry. The "Commodity Operation College" launched by Ma Honeycomb Tourism has been welcomed by cooperative merchants and peers in the industry. "In the downturn, continuous learning and improvement of online business capabilities and content asset construction capabilities can better meet the recovery after the epidemic." A participant said.

"Can't wait, we should take this opportunity to adjust the traditional business model." Liu Fang, president of Chongqing Tourism Chamber of Commerce, called on enterprises in the industry to establish a sense of transformation. Insiders pointed out that the "cloud tourism" launched this time can become the normal way in the future. "Although the offline experience of tourism is irreplaceable in nature, online can be used as a solution in an extraordinary period or off-season to make up for the incompleteness of the offline industrial chain."

In an interview with Ma Dejun, he said that next, in the field of online travel,

Ctrip. A survey released recently in www.com shows that after the epidemic, 85% of users will continue their travel plans this year. According to Ctrip's ticket data, the search volume of Ctrip's May Day holiday ticket is higher than last year. "After the epidemic, people need to breathe more urgently." Liao Wei, general manager of Chongqing China Travel Service Group, said that although the epidemic has had a great impact on the tourism market, the enthusiasm for mass tourism still exists, which shows that the tourism industry will not be depressed for a long time after the epidemic, which also gives practitioners a "reassurance".