The "Xijiang Miao Village Line" has obvious anti-inflation ability, and China's tourism industry has ushered in a golden period of development

20 1 1 is the first year of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, and it is also the first year of China's strategy of deepening economic transformation and expanding domestic demand. As the leading product of residents' consumption, tourism will usher in a historic development opportunity. Policy support such as increasing residents' income, improving traffic pattern and revitalizing regional economy will promote China's tourism industry to enter an accelerated growth cycle.

During the ten years from 200 1 to 20 10, the compound annual growth rate of total tourism revenue in China is about 13%. We predict the total tourism revenue growth of China in 20 1 1 year16.1%; During the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, the compound growth rate was14.45%; Last year, the compound growth rate was 15.32%. In the future, tourism will achieve accelerated growth and usher in a golden development cycle.

In the short term, many factors are beneficial to the industry. Revitalize regional economic development, promote the consumption upgrading of residents in second-and third-tier cities, and promote the development of local tourism. The high-speed rail effect benefits enterprises with tourism resources along the high-speed rail. The appreciation of RMB promotes the rapid development of outbound tourism, but has limited impact on inbound tourism.

As an industry unaffected by rising resource costs, tourism has obvious anti-inflation ability.

Tourism enterprises, especially those with natural scenic resources, have strong demand support and strong cost conversion ability. For example, the ticket prices of Huangshan Scenic Area and Emei Mountain Scenic Area increased by 77% and 88% respectively from 2003 to 2009, much higher than the cumulative increase of Cpi 18.3% in the same period.

At the same time, as the final consumer goods, the main costs of tourism products include labor costs and depreciation costs. Not affected by rising resource costs, it is relatively fixed and has obvious anti-inflation ability. Therefore, tourism listed companies, especially those that monopolize resources, have strong anti-inflation properties.

From the historical stock price performance of the tourism industry, we can find that, on the basis of fundamentals, theme event-driven is a very important catalytic factor for the stock price rise of listed tourism companies. Therefore, in the process of stock selection, we should first choose listed companies with good fundamentals and event-driven factors.

From the macro-background analysis of tourism, we can see that China has entered the era of mass tourism with sightseeing as the mainstay. We believe that tourism products that meet the needs of mass consumption will benefit significantly. We are optimistic about the most beneficial scenic spots, budget hotel sub-industries and tax-free sub-industries monopolized by policies in the mass tourism era, and prefer leading enterprises in the industry.

Among them, the scenic spot is the most beneficial sub-industry in the sightseeing stage. At the same time, the scenic spot has a unique resource monopoly advantage and strong anti-inflation ability. In addition, the continuous improvement of traffic pattern will promote the passenger flow in scenic spots very obviously. We are very optimistic about the profit prospects of scenic companies.

Travel agencies have weak profitability and limited room for improvement, and are optimistic about enterprises that can seize market opportunities; The high-star hotel industry is worried about oversupply and maintains a neutral view in the short term. It is estimated that the future development space of budget hotels will be 4-5 times, and it will also be the most beneficial in improving the mass travel rate.

Beijing Youth Travel Service