Autobots break through ten thousand points, and the global economy will set sail again?

The Nasdaq index hit a new high for three consecutive days and broke through the 10000 mark in intraday trading on June 9. Can the capital feast lead America out of the economic quagmire? Although the epidemic has been controlled at home, with the second wave of overseas epidemic rebounding, economic and trade globalization still faces many obstacles.

Text/Autobots Scroll

On the evening of June 9, Nasdaq broke through the 10,000-point mark in intraday trading, showing the world the skyrocketing US stocks. Some people, like me, think that the confirmed cases of coronavirus pneumonia-19 (COVID-19) in the United States hit 2 million people, and 1 10000 people died, which is difficult to control; On the one hand, riots are constantly staged everywhere. What happened?

Ten thousand points behind Na Zhi.

Things should start from the last trading day of last week. The US Department of Labor made a big mistake, and the unemployment rate announced was 13.4%. The next day, it was revised to 16.4%, saying that the original data was underestimated by 3 percentage points due to the statistical caliber problem. On the day when the unemployment rate 13.4% was released, the Dow Jones index rose by 3. 15%, the Nasdaq rose by 2.06%, and the Nasdaq set a record of 9,846 points.

Even if it was revised to 16.4% the next day, investors still regarded it as positive. On the first trading day of this week, US stocks continued to triumph, with the Dow up 1.7% and Nasdaq reaching a new high of 9925.

In the past three months, US stocks have pulled out three Changyang, and the Nasdaq has risen by 27%, which not only recovered the lost ground since the outbreak of coronavirus pneumonia-19 virus, but also set a new high in nearly three trading days, and broke through the 10,000-point mark for the first time in intraday trading on June 9.

Behind it, of course, is the massive release of water by the Federal Reserve. The US Treasury and Federal Reserve have released 13 trillion US dollars in just 26 working days, which is equivalent to the total GDP of China in 20 18 years. At the same time, the price of gold fell rapidly and the price of crude oil rose. All this looks like an economic recovery.

Tesla's share price fell from nearly a thousand dollars to 350 dollars in February this year, and now it has returned to an all-time high of 940 dollars. China Stock Exchange also benefited from it. For example, Weilai Automobile rose from a low of 2. 1 1 USD in March to a close of 6.68 USD on June 9, nearly five times higher than the low of 1. 19 USD in June last year.

On June 9th, the latest report released by the World Bank held that in 2020, only China could achieve positive growth. In 2020, the economies of the United States and Japan are expected to shrink by 6. 1%, and the euro zone will shrink by 9. 1%.

Under such circumstances, is it reasonable for US stocks to triumph all the way? First of all, even the revised unemployment rate 16.4% is still higher than the agency's expectation. More importantly, according to statistics, although the number of unemployed people in the United States has hit record highs, during this period, personal real income has increased by 1 1%. Even nearly 70% of the unemployed earn more than when they were employed. Brokers said that the increase in US stocks has been occupied by retail investors. 58% of the new capital of established brokers comes from retail investors, and 90% of the new capital of online brokers comes from retail investors.

There is no doubt that the American stock market has become the most important means for all sectors of American society to increase their wealth. Both retail investors and institutions prefer Internet technology companies such as "FAAMG" (FB, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google), which makes these five major enterprises return to the "trillion clubs" except FB. Therefore, Nasdaq can repeatedly break new highs, and the Dow Jones index is relatively backward. In terms of individual stocks, GM, Fiat-Chrysler and Ford are relatively average, while Tesla and Weilai are more eye-catching. Although car home and Easy Car also have Internet attributes, their performance is not outstanding.

Different logics between China and America

The most direct benefit to China from the improvement of American economy is the exchange rate. With the sharp drop in US debt, the US dollar index fell for four consecutive weeks, falling 96 lines from the highest point 102. Hedge funds and a large amount of capital are rapidly returning from developed markets to emerging markets, so the offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates began to rise. On June 10, Beijing time, the offshore RMB has appreciated from the lowest close to 7.2 to around 7.055.

A few days ago, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the PMI of China in May was 50.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from 50.8% in the previous month. Although it has declined slightly, it is still higher than the threshold, showing an expanding trend and higher than the same period last year. According to institutional interpretation, both ends of supply and demand continued to improve in May. On the one hand, terminal demand rebounded, the decline in real estate sales in 35 cities continued to narrow, and the growth rate of wholesale and retail of passenger cars also increased; On the other hand, industrial production continued to improve. The growth rate of coal consumption for power generation of the five major groups rebounded and turned positive. The decline in the growth rate of output of sample steel enterprises narrowed, and the operating rate of major industries rose more and fell less.

According to the data of the Federation, the growth rate of wholesale and retail of passenger cars rebounded in May, and the inventory early warning index continued to decline. In May, the domestic retail sales of passenger cars in narrow sense reached 6.5438+0.609 million, up 654.38+0.8% year-on-year, which was the first increase since the sales of passenger cars in narrow sense reached 654.38+0. 1 month, indicating that the industry demand has picked up. The improvement of sales also led to destocking, and the dealer inventory early warning index continued to fall back to 54.2% in May.

It is noteworthy that the sales volume of heavy trucks in May was about175,000 vehicles, a record high in the same period since 20 14 years ago, and the year-on-year growth rate of 62% remained high, indicating that both supply and demand were booming. On the one hand, after experiencing the "sluggish demand" in the first quarter, orders in the heavy truck market rebounded sharply in the second quarter; On the other hand, unprecedented efforts have been made in all parts of the country, and diesel vehicles with national III and below emissions have been eliminated ahead of schedule, which has promoted the growth of domestic heavy truck market demand.

Generally speaking, China's economy has recovered to 80-90% before the epidemic, but autobots think it is difficult to fully recover. Because the situation overseas is still out of control. Dr. Zhang Wenhong said recently that the second wave of the global epidemic has begun.

With the gradual decline of epidemic prevention and control level in Shanghai, Beijing and other big cities, people go out more and more frequently, and even many people don't wear masks on the road. People talk less and less about this epidemic, as if it were leaving us. The reality is that as of June 16, Beijing time, the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 epidemic worldwide was nearly 4 10000, and the number of confirmed cases exceeded 7.28 million.

The situation in China is much safer, but the risks and pressures of overseas imports are still increasing. This means that the resistance of economic and trade globalization is still great.

Throughout history, the cumulative number of people who died of plague exceeded 654.38 billion, the number of people who died of Spanish flu was 654.38 billion, and the number of people who died of smallpox virus was as high as 500 million. China and the United States have taken two completely different paths to deal with the harm caused by the epidemic. The epidemic situation in China has been basically controlled, but the problem is how to open the country again. The United States, while taking no time to control the epidemic, has also achieved good results by relying on US stocks to increase the wealth of all sectors of society. Now, from an economic point of view, it is hard to say whose strategy is better.

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, Autobots has emphasized in its articles that talking about economy without plague is like talking about agriculture without weather. Coronavirus pneumonia-19 virus's impact on the global economy is like the Trojan War in Homer's epic. On the surface, it was a war between the Trojans and the Greeks, but in essence it was the Olympians who really controlled the war. (Text/"Autobots" scrolling, part of the picture source network) Copyright statement This article is an exclusive original manuscript of Autobots, and the copyright belongs to Autobots.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.