Spring plowing is just around the corner, and corn, wheat, and rice have surged in price. What is the current market situation? Here comes the answer

As the saying goes, the plan for a year begins with spring.

The spring plowing in 2023 is approaching. Some farmers may have already made an idea of ??what to plant, but some are still hesitant. Should they plant corn or wheat? Do you want to convert your paddy fields into dry fields?

At present, in Heilongjiang Province, which is located in a cold zone, farmers who grow corn have made a lot of money in recent years, while farmers who grow rice have very little income, which is far less than that of corn. Very far.

So the land rent for dry fields was once higher than for paddy fields. At present, the mainstream price of dry fields is between 12,500-13,500 yuan/hectare, while the land rent for paddy fields is only 9,000-11,000 yuan/hectare. about.

The land price is so expensive, so what exactly will you plant this year? Since 2019, the price of corn has risen from 1 yuan and a few cents per catty to the current level of about 1.4-1.5 yuan, which is a step up; since 2022, the mainstream price of wheat has also risen from 1.25-1.30 yuan to the current 1.50-1.65 yuan. Yuan/jin has also risen to a higher level; only in the rice market, the roar of the waves remains the same, fluctuating at a low level, and is calm. However, the price of rice has increased recently. Will there be anyone in the market who will follow the rise of the two major grain crops of corn and wheat? After that, what about the rising varieties that will take over the "third baton"?

Let’s discuss this issue together today. Benevolent people have different opinions and wise people have different opinions. We also invite farmers friends to participate and express their opinions.

Let’s first take a look at the market conditions of these three staple foods:

1. Corn market conditions

The latest corn quotations show that the overall trend is falling in the south and rising in the north. , that is, many companies in Shandong have lowered their prices, and some corn companies in Northeast China have raised their purchase prices, showing obvious regional characteristics.

Among them: Shandong Weifang Yingxuan Industrial fell by 0.5 points, quoted at 1.49 yuan/jin; Weifang Zhuchengyuan fell by 0.3 points, quoted at 1.455 yuan/jin; Zhuchengyuan fell by 0.3 points, quoted at 1.455 yuan/jin; Tianli Pharmaceutical fell 0.3 points to 1.406 yuan/jin; Shouguang Golden Corn fell 0.3 points to 1.416 yuan/jin; Dezhou Fuyang Biotech fell 0.3 points to 1.411 yuan/jin;

Seven Star Lemon fell 0.5 points, 1.475 yuan/jin; Luzhou Group fell 0.5 points, 1.45 yuan/jin; Tai'an Feicheng Fukuan fell 0.2 points, 1.423 yuan/jin; Tai'an Xiangrui Pharmaceutical fell 0.5 points, 1.43 yuan/jin; Heze Chengwu Dadi fell 0.5 points, 1.44 yuan/jin; Dazecheng Biology fell 0.3 points, 1.442 yuan/jin; Jining Zoucheng Mi Neng fell 0.5 points, quoted 1.45 yuan/jin.

Several companies also rose today: Jilin Xintianlong Industrial rose 1 point, 1.36 yuan/jin, 30 water 1.0945 yuan/jin; Jilin Songyuan Yuntianhua rose 0.5 points, second-class 14.5 water 1.355 yuan/jin .

Inner Mongolia Tongliao plum blossom biological rose 1 point, second-class 14 water 1.365 yuan/catty; 30 water 1.081 yuan/catty.

At present, due to the recent warmer weather and the increase in corn supply, corn prices have been weak. However, the Northeast region has also risen against the trend, indicating that there are still differences in the market. Overall, corn prices have increased in the near future. Positive factors such as production reductions and the start of one-time acquisitions, as well as unfavorable factors such as the end of corn sales and a small peak in market volume, have led to the current weak and volatile corn prices.

Regarding the market outlook for corn, I personally do not think it is pessimistic. I believe that after corn sales bottom out in the next month or so, with the full promotion of national 6B ethanol gasoline, the number of pigs, cattle and sheep breeding will be saturated. Next, there is a certain upward momentum in the corn market. It is expected that after April and May, the corn market will usher in a wave of rebound.

2. Wheat market situation

Today the wheat market continues to weaken. More than a dozen companies in Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu and other countries continue to lower their purchase prices by 0.2-1.0 cents. The current mainstream purchase price of wheat processing enterprises is between 1.57-1.60 yuan/jin.

See the attached table for specific price adjustments:

Regarding the wheat market outlook, my personal view is that the current wheat price is still at a high level in recent years, and among the factors affecting the future wheat market : There are favorable factors such as the decline in international wheat trade volume and tight supply due to international and regional conflicts, and there are also unfavorable factors such as expectations of expansion of wheat planting area due to relatively high prices. Therefore, in the future, wheat prices will rise or fall sharply. "Difficult", there is a high probability that it will remain between 1.55-1.70 yuan/jin in 2023.

3. Rice market situation

Currently, in the national rice market, the characteristics of "strong in the north and weak in the south" are obvious. Rice prices in the northern region are relatively strong mainly due to the support of market purchase belts. Comes with a boosting effect.

According to market feedback, the state reserve purchase points in various production areas in Heilongjiang have begun to purchase large quantities of rice, and the quality standards for purchased rice have also been relaxed, which will bring certain benefits to the Northeast rice market.

The latest rice quotations show: long-grain rice prices in Harbin, Heilongjiang are 1.63-1.75 yuan/jin, Qiqihar round-grain rice prices are 1.30-1.38 yuan/jin, Jiamusi round-grain rice prices are 1.30-1.32 yuan/jin; Jilin Huadian Super rice is 1.40-1.45 yuan/jin; Liaoning Panjin Liaoxing rice purchase price is 1.60 yuan/jin; Jiangsu Nantong Rudong 5055 rice’s early factory price is 1.50 yuan/jin; Hubei Jingzhou Public Security Huang Huazhan rice’s factory price is 1.42 yuan/jin.

4. Rice market outlook expectations

Regarding the rice market outlook expectations in 2023, I personally believe that rice will become the "third pillar" of growth after the rise of corn and wheat. The main logic is :

First, there is a large expansion expectation for the area converted from paddy fields to dry fields. Due to the fact that the efficiency of paddy field planting has been significantly lower than that of corn planting in recent years, some farmers have experienced drought since last autumn. As a result of water diversion, some low-yielding paddy fields in Suileng are being turned into dry fields. The situation is similar across the country and will inevitably lead to a decline in rice production this autumn.

The second is that the rice market purchase will be announced soon. According to the analysis of some industry insiders, the probability of the rice market purchase price rising in 2023 is very high. Once the policy is implemented, it will also have a certain impact on the future rice market. positive impact.

The third is policy support. In the No. 1 Central Document of 2023, it is clearly stated that "reasonably determine the minimum purchase price of rice, stabilize rice subsidies, and improve the response mechanism to ensure supply and stable price of agricultural inputs", which has great influence on the rice market. Certain policy support.

In general, there are expectations for rice prices to rise in 2023, but everyone does not need to be too optimistic. It is difficult for the increase to exceed the increase of corn and wheat.

Dear friends, what are your expectations for the rise and fall of corn, wheat, and rice prices in 2023? Feel free to share your views.