Xinjiang corn purchase price

1. Today's Xinjiang corn price reference: unit: Yuan/ton corn price moisture is lower than 15% 1800 corn price moisture is lower than 15% 1780.00 2. Analysis of the latest corn price trend;

From 65438+1October 14 to 65438+ 10/8, the positions in the grain market changed, and the positions in the main corn contract C 1 109 changed from 34.89 in just three days. Guan Hui, an agricultural product analyst at haitong futures (15.82, -0.02, -0. 13%), said in an interview with Cai Shang reporter of China Business News recently: "This soaring position is a change in funds for such a small plate of corn, probably because the corn consolidation time is too long."

In fact, it is not just corn varieties that have greatly increased their positions. The main contracts of early indica rice (ER 1 109) and Qiangmai (WS 1 109) were also significantly increased on June 65438+ 10/4. Among them, the position of ER 1 109 increased from 56,700 lots in the previous trading day to 67,800 lots, and the position in a single day increased by19.57%; The position of WS 1 109 increased from 46,300 lots in the previous trading day to 87,800 lots, with a single-day increase of 89%.

Generally speaking, open position refers to the sum of positions bought (or sold) before open position. The positive line of a substantial increase in positions has many meanings. First, the positive line means that many parties are dominant that day, and the empty side fights and retreats. Second, a substantial increase in positions means that funds are willing to actively enter the market to open positions. The bigger the position, the larger the scale of the campaign, and the easier it is to give birth to a big market. Third, Masukura also means that differences begin to increase and resistance begins to increase. It may be because the atmosphere of short-term speculation is too strong, or it may trigger the demand for hedging transactions. More and more contrarian speculators are trying to correct the market, and there is a need for rest in the short term. As for whether the rest will become a major adjustment, it depends on whether there is a rest during the rest.

Trend of 20 10 corn positions after the surge.

Taking corn with relatively large positions as an example, this paper reviews the trend of its sudden increase in positions in history. According to statistics, since 2007, in the ranking of the daily increase of corn main contracts, 65438+1October 65438+August ranked 23rd with the daily increase of 16.37%; Judging from the ranking of positions increased in the main contract for three consecutive days, from 65438+1October 14 to 65438+1October 18, it increased by 30.84% in three trading days, ranking 22nd.

Among them, 20 10, only 6 positions with a single-day increase of more than 16%.

On June 4 and June 8 last year, 65438+1October 8, the daily increase of corn positions was 3 1.76% and 30.9 1% respectively. It can be seen from the trend that the Masukura on June 4th, 65438 was a new high after consolidation, and the futures price rose further after stepping out of the cross star the next day. However, the Masukura of 65438+10.8 is the reappearance of the divergence after the pull-up, and the futures price broke in the subsequent rest process, and the deep adjustment began.

Last July 12, after the main corn contract reached the bottom of "W", it stood on the 60-day moving average in one fell swoop, and there was a strong demand to withdraw the neckline. The positions held on that day increased by 63,900 lots, or 34.09%. Some investors began to think that the short-term increase was too high, but the 60-day moving average did not fall below the next day. When the trend of long positions has not been destroyed, the position has plummeted by 5. With the return of funds, 25,600 lots were added on July 65,438+06, and 265,438+0.65,438+0.7 million lots were added on July 20, which laid the foundation for the bull market.

On September 8, last year, the main corn contract broke through after the box was sorted out, and it surged back, adding 62,800 lots, an increase of 19.73%, leaving a long shadow line. The next day, it also reduced its position by 34,000 lots, and the futures price fell by 0.93%. The market was entangled. A week later, on September 15 and September 17, the main corn contracts increased positions by 36,000 lots and 55,700 lots again, which also showed a trend. In this wave of market trends, the positions of 10, 1 1 and 10, 2 1 increased by 36.85% and 24.38% respectively. It is characterized by short-term high opening and low walking, and then returns to the upward trend after a period of rest.

Does the Masukura of 65438+ 10/8 also indicate the coming of a big market after a short break?

Corn is in a tight balance between supply and demand.

From the perspective of supply and demand, according to the report of National Grain and Oil Information Center in June 5438+0, 2011China's corn output is 65,438+725 million tons, and the import volume is 600,000 tons, that is, new supply 1.73 1.

Cui, an agricultural product analyst at COFCO Futures, said: "Although supply is still greater than demand, the growth rate of consumption is greater than the growth rate of supply. The annual balance has fallen sharply. The annual balance in the last three years is19.562 million tons, 54190,000 tons and195,000 tons respectively, and the annual balance is already110 of the previous year. "

In addition, USDA recently lowered its corn harvest forecast by 2010/201,and predicted that the global corn production deficit would be 2,065,438+million tons, an increase of 17% compared with the forecast of 65,438+in February last year. According to the Ministry, before the harvest of 20 10/20 1 1, the US corn stock will drop to 74.5 billion bushels (18.9 million tons), the lowest since 1996.

"The shortage of US stocks will stimulate international corn prices. Recently, the US corn price hit a new high since the subprime mortgage crisis. On the other hand, domestic corn has recently been under weak pressure from the state, and the participation of funds is not high. " Wei Jie, a senior researcher at SDIC Zhonggu Futures, told reporters a few days ago. At present, the international and domestic price difference is already very large, and domestic corn has more rising potential than other agricultural products. In addition, the state's acquisition has also eased the short-term market regulation pressure.

Wei Jie believes: "The rumor of the introduction of the national corn purchasing and storage policy is one of the main reasons for the sharp increase in corn turnover on Tuesday. Although there is no announcement yet, the news is more accurate. "

It is estimated that 9 million tons of corn will be collected and stored in batches this time. Among them, the three northeastern provinces bought 6.5438+million tons, third-class grain 1800 yuan/ton, second-class grain 1840 yuan/ton, and first-class grain 1880 yuan/ton. In the same period last year, the price of Jilin's third-class grain was 1.500 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 20%.

The tight balance between supply and demand and the year-on-year increase in purchasing and storage prices have given corn long-term fundamental support.

Operation prompt

In terms of specific operations, Wei Jie believes: "It is difficult to make a breakthrough in domestic corn before the Spring Festival, and it is difficult to stand at 2,400 yuan/ton in the short term, because corn will still be restricted by macro data and policy regulation in the first quarter. After all, the spot will be abundant in the first quarter, and farmers still have surplus grain. "

Wei Jie suggested that we should pay attention to two factors in the first quarter: first, whether the growth of winter wheat will continue to be affected by drought in spring, and second, the weather situation in the northern hemisphere during corn sowing. If these two problems break out one after another, then domestic corn will follow, and the time node is expected to be in March.

Driven by labor costs, Cui is also optimistic. He said: "This year's corn will continue to rise. In recent years, corn has been going up at the speed of 200 yuan every year, and it only rose a little last year. It is estimated that this year's corn price can be seen from 2600 yuan/ton to 2800 yuan/ton. Buying on dips is this year's strategy. If corn stabilizes near the 60-day moving average, you can consider buying long-term holdings. "