Traditional Culture Encyclopedia - Weather forecast - Many people think that this year will be a "warm winter". Why?
Many people think that this year will be a "warm winter". Why?
Forecast and analysis of winter in 2020 -202 1 The probability of warm winter is particularly large. The summer in meteorological monitoring is as long as three months, and the temperature in these three months lies in the average temperature, not the maximum or minimum value. For ordinary people, the practical significance of cold winter is not great. Many times, we just need to pay attention to whether and how the temperature will change, and do a good job immediately.
In the middle and late of 20 16, 16 10, a "dominant" cold current appeared in China. At that time, 76 websites, including Ergon in Inner Mongolia, Zhangjiakou in Hebei, Qingdao in Shandong, Pudong in Shanghai, Huai 'an in Jiangsu, Yongjia in Zhejiang, Fuzhou in Fujian, Zhuhai in Guangdong, Fangchenggang in Guangxi, Shifang in Sichuan and Pingbian in Yunnan, upgraded and built local websites. Snowfall even reached the coastal cities of Guangdong and Guangxi, creating the southernmost boundary with detailed climate records so far (195 1 year to date).
As everyone knows, after the end of winter, data analysis shows that the winters of 20 15 and 20 16 are warmer. Many people will ask, why do you think it was cold in the first two years, and the Meteorological Bureau called it warm winter?
"All winters are warm, which doesn't mean three months are warm." Ding, an academician of China Academy of Engineering and special climate consultant of China Meteorological Bureau, told reporters that climate is the description of two main parameters, one is the average temperature, and the average temperature of 90 days in a winter exceeds the average of more than ten years, that is, it is warm winter and the other is cold winter, which is also an average problem.
At the same time, it needs to be described by another extreme event, which will happen in a few days. In some cases, it suddenly becomes very warm, but in other cases, it suddenly becomes very cold. This is an extreme event, which occurred in a short time.
If it is predicted that the winter is warmer, it means that the whole winter exceeds the multi-year average, but it does not mean that strong cold events and sunny and hot events are not easy to occur in this warm winter. In addition to the above examples, on February 30th, 20 15, the temperature in the Arctic exceeded 0℃, which was 30℃ warmer than the average climate in long-term winter.
Generally speaking, people have a deep memory of extreme events, and it is not easy to remember the average temperature, so there may be errors in experience. However, the year of 202 1 was still ok, and the solar term from winter solstice was quite cold at that time, so the slight cold solar term and slight cold temperature in the later period were not so cold. In other words, if the coldest temperature is not hot, it will be slightly cold in real spring.
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