Pork and grain price reduction warning: Pig, corn, wheat, and peanut prices have been reduced across the board. By how much?

Affected by sluggish demand and increased supply, pig prices have generally fallen in Northeast, East China, North China and Northwest China.

Corn prices are differentiated. Corn prices in Northeast China have stopped rising and stabilized, while corn prices in North China and Shandong have continued to fall.

With the completion of wheat stocking before the end of the year, flour companies have completed their purchases, and manufacturers have lowered prices and waited for housing prices to stop rising.

Peanut prices are not strong during the peak season. Although pre-holiday stocking is imminent, prices still fall.

The price of pigs cannot rise, and on January 3, the north "dropped miserably"

After two days of rebound, the price of pigs has fallen again in recent days, especially in the northern region as a whole "Falling miserably".

The previous increase in pig prices was partly due to the fact that after the price of pigs fell below the cost line, the breeding end was reluctant to sell the pigs at a high price, and the slaughterhouses increased their prices to collect pigs after it became more difficult to collect pigs.

On the other hand, it is due to the dual positive support of terminal pork consumption as the peak of epidemic infection is coming to an end and consumer demand on New Year's Day.

However, because the oversupply of pork in the market has not changed, the reduction in pig slaughter volume and the rebound in pork consumption have a limited time to boost pig prices. On January 3, pig prices once again fell across the board. It fell back, with prices in Northeast China falling by 0.35-0.6 yuan, East China by 0.2-0.75 yuan, North China by 0.65-0.9 yuan, and Northwest China by 0.1-0.25 yuan.

The overall price of pigs in the north has fallen miserably.

What is the reason for the price of pigs to not rise and fall again? I think it is mainly related to the following reasons:

1. The benefits of New Year's Day consumption are only short-term benefits, and the benefits of Spring Festival have not yet arrived. After the benefits of New Year's Day are over, there will be no connection between the two.

2. After the price of pigs rose, the enthusiasm of farmers to sell pigs improved. Labeled pigs were superimposed on large amounts of fertilizer and impacted the market at the same time, putting pressure on the pig market.

3. Entering 2023, a new round of pig slaughter tasks will begin, and group pig farms will resume the pig slaughter rate.

4. Affected by the epidemic, the demand for cured meat ended early, and the boosting effect on pig prices disappeared.

According to expert predictions, the peak of epidemic infections will be difficult to end before the Spring Festival, which means that pork consumption will continue to be sluggish. Considering that the current pig production capacity is still at a high level, pig prices will fluctuate during the period before the Spring Festival. It is difficult to rise when it falls. The rise is just a short-term upward adjustment and is difficult to sustain.

As for pig prices in 2023, institutions predict that the supply of pigs will be at a high level in the first quarter. After the epidemic is relaxed, the industry's resumption of work will be hindered, and pig prices will easily fall but not rise.

However, in the second quarter, due to the short curing time, less bacon and sausage processing in the market, coupled with the recovery of the consumer end after the epidemic improved, the demand for pork was higher than the same period in previous years, and pig prices will strengthen as demand The trend has received strong support.

Corn prices in Shandong and North China have fallen, and stability has been maintained in Northeast China

According to statistics, Zouping Ronghai Biotechnology, Pingyuan Fuyang Biotechnology, and Mengzhou Houyuan Biotechnology have adjusted back by 10 yuan/ton, and Qixing Lemon Technology , Mengzhou Huaxing Biotech, and Yucheng Baolingbao retreated by 20 yuan/ton.

The fall in corn prices mainly has the following logic:

1. The grassroots grain surplus in North China is at a relatively high level, and local corn prices are under pressure.

2. There are still about two weeks before the Spring Festival, and companies will take holidays one after another, leaving grassroots farmers with little time to sell grain. Farmers are more enthusiastic about selling grain before the holiday.

3. Considering that the weather has warmed up after the Spring Festival, water has dropped off the scale, and prices are at a relatively high level, traders and drying towers have become less enthusiastic about harvesting grain.

4. The downturn in pig and chicken prices also affects the enthusiasm of feed companies to hoard corn.

The agency predicts that there is not much time for corn to be purchased and sold before the Spring Festival. Corn prices may fall, but the decline will not be significant. After all, the remaining vehicles of Shandong deep processing enterprises continue to fall in the morning and are currently at 200 Around 50,000 units, corn prices have strong support.

Wheat prices continue to fall

The expected peak of flour demand has not arrived. Instead, wheat prices have continued to fall as flour companies have concluded their purchases. Qingdao Wudeli has dropped by 5%. , Linyi Qingyuan Food fell by 1 point, and Xinxiang Wudeli dropped by 5%.

In the short term, the downward pressure on wheat prices is still there, because flour companies currently have large flour inventories, and companies have stopped harvesting one after another to wait for the Spring Festival holiday. This year, due to the epidemic, terminal flour demand is sluggish, and it is still difficult to It is expected that wheat prices will continue to be sluggish until the end of the year.

After the Spring Festival, the peak of epidemic infection will gradually subside, and catering consumption demand is expected to recover. With students starting school and companies resuming work, flour demand is expected to fully recover. By then, wheat prices will follow demand and the consumption of surplus grain. And gradually resumed its rise.

However, after the price of wheat rises, the enthusiasm of grassroots farmers and traders to ship goods has improved. The market will usher in a period of concentrated increase in volume. In addition, the national treasury still has nearly 40 million tons of wheat to support the market. Inventories are at the bottom. After wheat prices rise to a certain level, auctions are likely to be launched to replenish the market. Although there is hope for wheat prices to rise after the Spring Festival, it will be difficult to break through the 1.7 yuan that has not been exceeded before.

The peak season for peanuts is not booming, and the price has fallen slightly

According to a system display, the price of 308 general rice in Fuyu, Jilin is 5.20-5.30 yuan/jin, and the price of Xinbaisha general rice in Jinzhou, Liaoning It is about 5.20 yuan/jin, the price of Baisha currency in Junan, Shandong is about 5.10 yuan/jin, the price of wheat stubble rice in Zhengyang, Henan is about 5.30 yuan/jin, and the price of 308 varieties of currency rice in Luan County, Hebei is 5.40-5.50 yuan/jin. catty.

This is supposed to be the peak season for peanut consumption, the peak season for peanut oil demand, and the peak period for oil mills to stock up before the year. Peanut prices are expected to rise. However, the price of peanuts on the market is not as good as the autumn launch price. , the main reasons leading to this state are the following logics:

1. Affected by the epidemic, the demand for peanut consumption is sluggish, and the peak demand season during the Spring Festival has not yet begun.

2. Oil mills’ profits from crushing have shrunk, oil mills’ enthusiasm for purchasing peanuts has declined, and peanut purchasing prices have continued to fall.

3. Peanut production in Africa has increased, and import prices are expected to fall in the future.

Peanut prices are expected to pick up before the Spring Festival. On the one hand, with the passing of the peak of infection and the positive impact of Spring Festival consumption, the demand for peanut consumption is expected to increase.

On the other hand, the Spring Festival consumption is good, and the demand for New Year’s Eve dinner is expected to drive an increase in the demand for peanut oil.

However, considering that the supply is relatively sufficient and imported peanuts are eyeing the market, it is difficult for domestic peanut prices to rise significantly.