How to understand if the global seasons are disrupted?

Jean-Marc Moislain, a researcher at the Climatology Department of Météo-France, concluded in a 2005 report: "From 1950 to 2000, summers in France have become increasingly hotter, while winter glacial periods have During the same period, the annual temperature in France, especially the summer temperature, increased. In the northern two-thirds of France, the precipitation increased, accompanied by a huge contrast between winter and summer. It also makes summer droughts more severe. "All evidence shows that the seasonal changes have been disrupted, and intensifying global warming is the primary cause of this change. Computer simulation data about future climate change clearly tells us that by around 2100, the "normal" average temperature in each season (based on statistical data in the last 30 years) will rise by 4°C to 6°C, directly affecting the seasonal disorder.

Global Seasonal Disturbance Scenario

Right now, the cold winter we have been accustomed to for a long time is gradually disappearing. Hervé Doville, a climate model expert at the French Center for Meteorological Research, concluded: "The winter ice age starts later and later and ends earlier and earlier. The number of ice age days each year continues to decrease, and may eventually disappear completely." If the temperature rises by only 2℃ (this situation is likely to become a reality before 2050), the ice and snow coverage area will decrease by 40% to 50%. In the plain areas, the ice and snow scenery that is now rare will become a distant memory. In mountainous areas with medium altitudes above 1,500 meters, the situation is also not optimistic. Taking Western Europe as an example, snowfall weather will be reduced from 5 to 4 months in the northern Alps, and from 3 to 2 months in the southern Alps and Pyrenees! In fact, only the highest peaks will remain covered in silver... On the contrary, winter rainfall will be more frequent and significantly higher throughout France, especially in the south and west of France. Of course, this is good news for overwhelmed underground aquifers... At the same time, westerly winds from the Atlantic are likely to increase, but there will be no change in the number and intensity of winter storms. But Jean-Marc Moislain emphasized: "Currently, the accuracy of computer climate models is still very low, and it is not enough to make accurate estimates of the frequency of extreme weather such as storms."

Relatively disappear slowly As far as winter is concerned, summer is getting more and more fierce. If current climate change trends continue, the 2003 heat wave that caused great damage and left a deep mark on the collective memory of the French is likely to become a daily occurrence after 2070. All in all, future summer rainfall will be less, at best, at current levels, and the weather will get hotter. According to computer climate simulations, drought conditions will become more and more severe in future summers, and peak temperatures will rise at an alarming rate. Although the water accumulated in the soil and vegetation has a very high heat capacity and has a significant effect on lowering the temperature, once the water completely evaporates, there is nothing to slow down the incoming heat wave.

The cold winter is gradually getting warmer, and the hot summer is getting more and more scorching. Of course, spring and autumn cannot be "independent", they will also be affected by climate warming. Inheriting the lingering effects of summer drought, "Autumn Tiger" can maintain its power for several days. As the season least affected by warming, spring will become increasingly difficult to distinguish from winter. As the first wave of heat waves comes earlier every year, I really don’t know how much time is left for the goddess of spring...

Having said that, the current climate change model is still not accurate enough to predict the spring. and accurately describe the development and changes of autumn. Rainfall, in particular, depends heavily on small-scale geographical factors that are difficult to incorporate into model deductions. According to estimates by Météo-France, the degree of rainfall change across France in the future may vary by up to 40%, and the temperature rise may vary by 2°C! But starting next year, new forecast charts will produce more precise results as climate models improve and computers become more powerful. The newly launched climate change model can also help scientists gradually uncover the mystery of the mechanism of climate change.