Evolution of climate environment in the next few years under the influence of natural driving factors

10.2. 1 According to 108a large-cycle analysis of climate and environmental evolution,

There have been four major ice ages in the history of the earth-Sinian Ice Age, Ordovician Ice Age, Carboniferous-Permian Ice Age and Quaternary Ice Age, with a distance of about 2.3× 108a. The time scales of the first three major ice ages were all n× 108a, and the Quaternary ice age is only 2.6× 106a at present.

10.2.10.2 According to the analysis of climate and environment evolution in the period of 105a,

105a is the driving period of Milankovic's 0. 10Ma ice age and interglacial period.

The Quaternary glacial period consists of four glacial periods and three interglacial periods, and the time scale of each interglacial period is about 105a. Even the shortest last interglacial period and the last glacial period have a history of tens of thousands of years, while the late glacial period, that is, the modern interglacial period, is only 104a. Therefore, it is also reasonable to think that the modern interglacial period in which the global climate environment, including Henan Plain, is located has not yet ended, and the post-glacial period is only a part of this interglacial period and may continue.

10.2. 1.3 According to the analysis of climate and environment evolution in the period of 104a,

104a is the driving period of Milankovic's earth orbit during the 20 ~ 40kA glacial period and interglacial period.

Up to now, the last interglacial period lasted about 5× 104a, consisting of three warm periods, each lasting about 104a. The duration of the post-glacial period is similar to them. According to the ice core analysis mentioned above, the climate of this interglacial period is also very similar to that of the post-glacial period. Therefore, it can be inferred that the climate environment in the northern hemisphere, including the Henan Plain, is in the present late glacial period, which may be equivalent to a warm period of the last interglacial period. In other words, it may be an interglacial period of modern interglacial period. Since this interglacial period has lasted about 104a, and the warmest Atlantic period has passed, it can be further considered that this interglacial period is coming to an end and a new glacial period will come in the future of 104a.

10.2. 1.4 According to the analysis of climate and environment evolution in the period of 103a,

The last glacial period lasted 104a, during which the climate fluctuated for many times, each time around 2500a a. At present, the sub-Atlantic period we are in is a relatively cool and humid period, which has experienced nearly 2700a years. According to the cyclical law of climate change, this period should be over and the climate will develop in a warmer direction.

10.2.10.5 According to the analysis of climate and environment evolution in the period of 102a,

102a is the century cycle of solar activity from 80 years to 90 years.

As far as the northern hemisphere is concerned, in the late Holocene, 1, 2 and 3 Little Ice Ages (Table 8.2) lasted 1ka, and there were 3 Little Ice Ages, each lasting about 200a years. The Little Ice Age started in 1620, lasted for about 200a years, and basically ended in1early 8th century. By the 20th century, a warm period has lasted for about 200 years, so in the next 200 years, the climate may develop in a relatively cool direction.

From the analysis of the basic laws and periods of climate change in Henan Plain and its surrounding areas, it can be seen that the fluctuation of the above-mentioned 102a scale exists in the climate change of nearly 5ka:

From 3000 BC to 1000 BC (5000~3000a years ago), that is, from Yangshao culture to Anyang Yin Ruins, the temperature was relatively high.

From 0/000 BC to 770 BC, that is, in the early years of the Zhou Dynasty, Jianghan was frozen twice (in 903 BC and 897 BC), and then there was a great drought.

From 770 BC to 480 BC, during the Spring and Autumn Period, there was no ice in the ice bank of Lu, the bamboo sea was lush and the climate was warm.

From 48 BC1year to 222 BC, during the Warring States period, the climate was warmer and the temperature was higher than it is now.

From 22 1 year BC to 23 AD, the weather continued to get warmer during the Qin and Han Dynasties.

From 24 to 289, during the Three Kingdoms period of the Eastern Han Dynasty, the temperature was 1 ~ 2℃ lower than it is now, and it was the coldest in 280 ~ 289.

From 420 to 589, during the Northern and Southern Dynasties, the temperature was about 2℃ lower than it is now.

From 589 to 907, during the Sui and Tang Dynasties, the climate was warm. In the winters of 650, 669 and 678, there was no winter snow in Chang 'an.

907-960, Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms, with unknown phenology.

From 960 to 1276, the climate turned cold in the Song Dynasty, especially at the beginning of 12 century, litchi in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces froze to death twice (1178).

1268 ~ 1292, climate warming in early yuan dynasty.

From 1309 to 1353, Taihu Lake is frozen and several feet thick.

1368 ~ 1644, phenology unknown.

During 1470 ~ 1520, the climate was cold. 1493, heavy snowstorm and strong cold wave occurred in the eastern coast of China, and the snowfall lasted for more than 5 months. Coastal freezing in northern Jiangsu and Dongting Lake 15 13.

From 1550 to 1600, the climate is warm.

The climate was extremely cold from 1620 to 1720, especially from 1650 to 1700, which was the coldest period in recent 600a years. 1653 The Huaihe River was frozen, 1655 The average temperature in Beijing in winter was 2℃ lower than it is now, 1670 There was 20 days of heavy snow on the eastern coast, and the sea water came ashore with ice, forming an ice dike.

From 1720 to 1830, the climate is warm.

1840 to 1890, the climate was extremely cold, 1845, the Yellow River and Huaihe River were frozen for more than 40 days.

1890 ~ 1945, with a warm climate.

Since 1945, the climate has been cold, and there has been a rare freezing phenomenon in Bohai Sea for decades since 1969.

Comparing the above-mentioned climate change with the Greenland ice core 18O isotope curve, it is found that their changing trends have been almost parallel since 1700 years ago, and the time scale of 102a fluctuates periodically, but there is a slight difference in time, as shown in Figure 7.4.

Especially in the recent 600a-year climate oscillation, there were four cooling times and three warming times (including 1470 ~ 1520, 1620 ~ 1720,1840 ~/kloc-0)

The climate change in the northern part of North China Plain in the historical period is basically consistent with the above-mentioned climate change in the late Holocene. Zhang Chunshan et al. (1999) summarized the previous data as follows (Figure 10.4):

5000-3000 years ago, the climate became warmer obviously, and Beijing changed to Atlantic climate, belonging to Yangshao-Yinxu cultural era.

3000 ~ 2850 years ago, early Zhou, cold period.

From 2000 to 1400a, the Eastern Han Dynasty, the Three Kingdoms and the Six Dynasties were freezing.

1400 ~ 1040a, Sui and Tang Dynasties, warm period.

1040 ~ 720a ago, Five Dynasties, Northern Song Dynasty, Southern Song Dynasty, Cold Period.

720 ~ 700 years ago, in the early Yuan Dynasty, it was a warm period.

From 700 years ago to 1999, it was cold in Yuan, Ming, Qing, Republic of China and New China. However, the temperature in this period still fluctuated obviously, including four warm periods and four cold periods. The warm period is 1300 ~ 1470, 1550 ~ 1600, 1720 ~ 1830,1900 ~/kloc. 1470 ~ 1520, 1620 ~ 1720, 1840 ~ 1890,1950 ~/kloc-.

Figure 10.4 Periodic diagram of regional cold and warm changes in recent 5000 years.

(According to Zhang Chunshan et al., 1999)

Zhang Chunshan and others found that the above changes in cold and warm climate have the following periodic laws:

1) The warm period is getting shorter and shorter, and the temperature is getting lower and lower; On the contrary, the cold period is getting longer and longer, and the cold degree is getting stronger and stronger. The evolution sequence of cold and warm has a period of 400 ~ 800 a, and each period can be further divided into several small periods of 50a and 100a, and the temperature fluctuation is 1 ~ 2℃. For example, 5,000 to 3,000 years ago, there were elephants in the Yellow River basin; From 2850 to 2000 years ago, the northern boundary of elephants moved south and moved to the south of Huaihe River. From 1400a, it only appears in the south of the Yangtze River. 2000 ~ 1400a cold period, Huaihe river frozen (225 years), 1000 ~ 800a cold period, Taihu lake frozen (11year). Finally, all these indicate that the climate is developing in the cold direction.

2) Comparing the above-mentioned cold and warm climate fluctuations with those in Western Europe, it can be seen that the identifiable period is 350~600a years in the 2300a years from BC 1000 to AD 1300. During the period from 1300 to the present 700a, there are two periods, about 100a and 200a,14th century to15th century and16th century. According to this law, forecasting should enter a 200-year cycle from the second half of the 20th century.

Zhang Chunshan et al. calculated the percentage of extreme drought and extreme waterlogging times in each century to the total times in this century according to the extreme drought and extreme waterlogging times in Haihe River basin in recent 500a years (Figure 10.5). From the figure, it can be concluded that the percentage of particularly dry and extremely waterlogged years has a two-century variation law since16th century. That is to say, in 2 1 century, the percentage of possible years of extreme drought is greater than that of extreme waterlogging, indicating that the climate is developing in the direction of drought.

Figure 10.5 Percentage distribution of extreme drought and extreme waterlogging years in recent 500 years.

(According to Zhang Chunshan et al., 1999)

The solid line and dotted line represent the percentages of extreme waterlogging year and extreme drought year respectively.

The periodic fluctuation law of the above-mentioned 102a time scale shows that the cooling and drought situation from the second half of the 20th century will continue into the 20th century, including the relatively cold and dry climate in Henan Plain.

10.2. 1.6 Analysis of climate and environment evolution from 10a period,

10a is the Haier period of solar activity 1 1 ~ 22a.

According to the analysis of Greenland ice core data (see Figure 7.5), after the warm period of 1900 ~ 1940, the global temperature is decreasing, which is also confirmed by the temperature records in Iceland and Britain. The change of the annual average temperature in the northern hemisphere shows that the temperature has dropped by about 6.6℃ since 1939. This downward trend has not stopped yet, and the temperature in the northern hemisphere, including the Henan Plain, may continue to decline in the next few decades.

Zhang Chunshan et al. conducted a power spectrum analysis based on the historical data of drought and flood grades in Haihe River Basin in recent 500 years (1470 ~ 1987). The corresponding periods of spectral peaks exceeding 95% confidence limit are 2 ~ 3a, 5 ~ 6a, 10 ~ 1a and 20 ~ 30a. This is very similar to the quasi-2a period of atmospheric circulation, the 1 1a period of sunspots and the 2 or 3 times period of 1 1a period. They predicted the future climate change in this area according to different cycles. Based on the 15 independent epitaxial temperature series, the probability ratio and percentage of cooling in each period in the next 50 years are predicted (table 10. 1). As can be seen from the table, in the next 50 years, the dominant trend of climate change in this region is to develop in the cold direction.

Table10.11990 ~ 2040 Proportion Table of Cooling Possibility in North China Plain

(According to Zhang Chunshan et al., 1999)