What's the weather trend in Heilongjiang this year?

20 12 climate trend forecast and annual situation analysis

The temperature is normal, slightly higher, and the precipitation is normal, slightly less.

Based on the forecast of the annual climate trend and the analysis of the annual situation in 20 12, it is predicted that the general climate trend of the whole province from March 20 12 to March 20 10/0 is that the temperature is slightly higher than normal, and the heat conditions in the growing season are close to normal, which is slightly worse than last year. The precipitation is normal, slightly less. From the analysis of the overall meteorological conditions, this year is a bumper year (compared with the average of the last five years). The main disasters affecting agricultural production in our province are drought in some parts of the west and south in spring, and staged low temperature appears in the late spring; Stage drought in summer, local flood in midsummer; Early frost in autumn

General trend of weather and climate

It is estimated that the general climate trend of the whole province from March 20 12 to June 2065438+00: the temperature is slightly higher all the year round, and the heat in the growing season is close to normal, slightly lower than last year; The precipitation is normal, slightly less.

Spring: It is estimated that the average precipitation in the whole province will be slightly higher this spring, among which Daxing 'anling, Heihe, Qiqihar, Daqing, Jiamusi, Shuangyashan and Qitaihe are more than normal 1 ~ 20%, while other areas are less than normal1~ 20%; The temperature in most parts of the province is slightly higher than normal, and the average temperature in the province is about 0.2℃ higher than normal. The temperature is slightly higher in the first spring, and the cold air activity is frequent in the second spring, and the stage cooling process is obvious, and the temperature is normal and the final frost is normal.

Summer: The average precipitation in summer in the whole province is slightly less than normal, in which the southern part of Qiqihar, Daqing, Suihua, Jiamusi and Hegang are 0 ~ 1% more than normal, and other areas are about 0 ~ 1% less than normal. The temperature in summer is slightly higher, and the average temperature in the province is 0.5℃ higher than normal.

Autumn: the autumn precipitation in most parts of the province is less than normal1~ 20%. The temperature in autumn is slightly higher than normal, and the average temperature in the whole province is 0.0 ~ 0.3℃ higher than normal, and the first frost is a little earlier.

Prediction and Analysis of Agrometeorological Disasters

1. In spring, some areas in the west and south are very dry. The last measurement of soil moisture before freezing at 20 1 1 year (1 1.8) showed that the soil moisture in the plough layer (0 ~ 10 cm) in 47 counties and cities in the west and south was dry, while that in 7 counties and cities was poor. The "snow poverty" since winter has led to thin snow in most parts of our province. By the end of early February, the snow in most agricultural areas of the province was shallow, less than 10 cm, and there was no snow in southern Songnen Plain, western Jixi, Linkou, Boli and Dongning, which was not conducive to soil moisture conservation. To sum up, combined with the forecast and analysis of spring precipitation, the overall spring precipitation is slightly normal, which is conducive to alleviating the soil drought in autumn and winter last year. However, due to the uneven distribution of precipitation, there is still the possibility of drought persistence and development in some areas. It is predicted that during the spring sowing this year, soil drought may occur in parts of western and southern parts of our province.

2. Low temperature stage in late spring. It is predicted that the staged cooling process in late spring in our province is obvious, which has certain adverse effects on crop sowing and emergence.

3. It is predicted that the summer precipitation in our province is mainly local, and the spatial distribution of precipitation is uneven. Areas with more precipitation are prone to local floods, and areas with less precipitation are more prone to periodic droughts.

It is predicted that the temperature in summer is slightly higher than normal, but it has a downward trend compared with the last two years, so there is the possibility of staged low temperature in summer.

5. According to the comprehensive analysis of meteorological conditions, different degrees of pests and diseases may occur in some areas.

6. There are sudden disasters such as hail and rainstorm in the local area.

7. Early frost is more likely to appear in autumn.

Analysis on the Influence of Meteorological Conditions on Agricultural Production

1. sowing date: soil drought concentrated in the west and south will not be conducive to timely sowing of field crops and affect sowing quality. Secondly, the staged low temperature in late spring will affect the normal sowing progress and emergence in most areas, which may reduce the emergence rate and affect the effect of one-time sowing and seedling protection.

2. Field growing period: The precipitation in the whole summer is slightly less than normal, and the temperature is slightly higher, so crops can flourish in most areas. However, due to the uneven distribution of precipitation, precipitation is mainly concentrated in midsummer, so there will be periodic drought or waterlogging and local disasters such as heavy rain, hail, pests and diseases in summer, which will have a certain adverse impact on the normal growth and development of local crops; Compared with the past two years, the temperature has a downward trend, and there may be staged low temperature in summer, which will slightly delay the growth and development of crops. However, this year's meteorological conditions are generally conducive to the growth of field crops.

3. Filling maturity: The autumn temperature is slightly higher, and the precipitation in most parts of the province is less than normal1~ 20%, which is very beneficial to the grain filling maturity of crops. However, it is normal for the first frost to be a little earlier, and it is not easy for late-maturing crops to mature safely.