Russia-Ukraine conflict weather

At present, the situation in Russia and Ukraine continues to be deadlocked.

After Russian troops withdrew from Hellson, the situation ushered in new changes. At present, Russian and Ukrainian troops are at loggerheads on both sides of the Dnieper River in Hellson.

The Ukrainian southern operations Command reported that Russian troops continued to equip fortifications and defensive positions and carried out defensive operations on the left bank of the Dnieper River.

According to Ukrainian and Russian sources, Russian troops shelled Dudciani, Kachi Carrive Ka and Prideniplovsky in Kherson oblast and Ilinca in in Dnepropetrovsk oblast, all on the right bank of Dnieper River.

Ukrainian troops continue to target Russian troops and logistics nodes behind Zaporoge and Hellson.

It has been reported that since the Russian army retreated to the east bank of the Dnieper River, there have been signs of "further retreat" in these two days. The Ukrainian army tried to break through the small island on the Dnieper River, but it was repelled by the Russian army.

However, some sources pointed out that the Ukrainian army has "broken through into the east bank of the Dnieper River". In this regard, the Russian side denied that the settlements of Kahovka and Aleshki in Hellson are still controlled by the Russian army.

Some analysts believe that the Russian army has a strong defense force on the east bank of the Dnieper River, and it is unlikely that the Ukrainian army will cross the river directly. It is expected that the next hot spot will be near Donetsk in the east of Donbass.

After withdrawing troops from southern Hellson, Russia will pay attention to eastern Ukraine again to echo the Kremlin's strategy of "completely liberating" Donbass.

A few days ago, Andrei Zagorodniuk, former defense chief of Ukraine and chairman of the defense strategy center of Kiev think tank, also reminded in the blog of the Atlantic Council: "The only way for the commander-in-chief of Russian special military operations, Sulovikin, to promote Hellson's idea of withdrawing troops to Russian President Vladimir Putin is to promise success in eastern Ukraine." "Therefore, Ukraine must prepare for the sharp escalation of Russian military operations in the Donbass region in the coming weeks."

At the same time, Kiev was forced to dispatch troops from the south. Russian media said that at least one brigade of the Ukrainian army had been sent to Bakhmut in Donetsk region.

Mark Millie, the top general of the US military and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of Tu Tu Source: US media

At present, the most fierce fighting place is still Bakhmut. According to the data of the Ukrainian General Staff, 630 Russian soldiers were killed in the past day, which shows the fierce fighting.

A western official said that although the offensive of the Ukrainian army is relatively strong at present, "we expect there will still be a hard battle, and it is difficult for both sides to tell the winner."

Mark Millie, the top general of the US military and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said recently that Ukraine is unlikely to achieve a complete military victory in the short term. He said that although Russia suffered setbacks on the battlefield, it still has strong combat effectiveness in Ukraine.

Indeed, with the arrival of winter in Eastern Europe, the war situation will further change.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd lloyd austin said recently that the Ukrainian army, supported by the United States and its allies and equipped with a large number of winter equipment, will have the upper hand over the Russian army.

However, the winter weather and mud made Ukraine's military operations more difficult, and the front line from Kharkov in eastern Ukraine to Hellson in southern Ukraine began to stabilize, which was part of the expected slowdown.

On the other hand, historically, Russia is best at turning Kun on the battlefield in winter, and the severe winter is Russia's natural ally.

Experts believe that this has not made Ukraine feel relaxed. It is still too early to say that the Russian army failed or the Ukrainian army won.

It can be predicted that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will become more intense this winter.

At the same time, the relationship between Ukraine and neighboring Belarus is further tense. The Information Office of the State Border Committee of Belarus announced that Ukraine had built a concrete fence hundreds of meters long in the Warren area bordering Belarus. In addition, Uzbekistan has built isolation trenches and watchtowers in the border area with Belarus.

Belarusian President Lukashenko said in early June of 5438+00 that Ukraine had assembled 15000 soldiers on the border with Belarus.

For Russia, Belarus is the front position facing NATO and the most important and final strategic barrier. If it falls, Russia will face a severe situation. Therefore, Putin will not let go.

Extended reading

Zelensky appeared in Hellson to thank NATO Secretary General, but issued a warning.

Five days after Russian troops withdrew from Hellson, 14, Ukrainian President Zelensky appeared in Hellson to address the Ukrainian army.

According to Reuters, Zelensky told the army, "We are moving forward and preparing for peace, for the peace of the whole country."

On June 4th, 65438, Zelensky appeared in Hellson. Figure from foreign media

In his speech, Zelensky thanked NATO and other allies for their support, and especially pointed out that the American "Hippo" multi-barrel rocket launcher system played a great role.

When asked about the next target of the Ukrainian army, Zelensky said, "It won't be Moscow. We are not interested in the territory of other countries. "

On Zelensky's trip, Russian Presidential Press Secretary peskov said on the same day, "No comment. This is Russian territory. "

The Governor of Chang 'an Avenue noticed that the situation became more and more complicated as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict entered its ninth month. Can the withdrawal of Russian troops from Hellson be regarded as a turning point in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict? When will the peace talks begin? What role will the United States and NATO play in this?

In the past few days, Ukraine has frequently released negotiation signals. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba also announced at the ASEAN Summit that if Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov asks for talks, Ukraine will consider it.

Earlier, Zelensky also proposed the conditions for Ukraine to open a dialogue: restoring territorial integrity, respecting the Charter of the United Nations, compensating all losses, punishing every war criminal, and ensuring that there will be no more wars.

In response to the above remarks, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko made it clear on June 5438+04 that he did not accept the preconditions for starting negotiations on the Ukrainian issue.

Grushko said that "these conditions are unacceptable" and Russia is willing to negotiate, but the situation on the ground should naturally be taken into account.

Ukrainian army

Although regaining control of Hellson is regarded as a great victory for the Ukrainian army, what this victory means is still inconclusive.

US President Biden told reporters on June 5438+04 about the situation in Russia and Ukraine that retaking Hellson was a great victory for Ukraine. It is hard to say what this victory means at present, but the United States will continue to support Ukraine.

Earlier, Biden said that Moscow and Kiev would "lick their wounds."

Also on 14, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg warned that despite Kiev's recent success in the battlefield, Russia's military strength should not be underestimated.

"We should not make the mistake of underestimating Russia. The Russian armed forces have retained important forces and a large number of troops. " Stoltenberg warned, "The next few months will be difficult."

Stoltenberg data map

Under the background of increasingly complicated situation, when can the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks be restarted?

On June 38+03, David Ala Camia, the chief Ukrainian negotiator, said that the peace talks with Russia may resume in the second half of 2023.

Ala Camia said that in his view, the Russian-Ukrainian joint talks should wait until "the election cycles of Russia and the United States begin to work".

"That is to say, at the beginning of the US presidential election in the second half of next year. In addition, Putin will face elections in 2024. Everyone needs to show something politically. " He said.

In fact, there are many differences within the US government on whether to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict through negotiations.

According to The New York Times, Mark Millie, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Army, believes that negotiations should be held as soon as possible. Millie said at an internal meeting that Ukraine had achieved some expected results on the battlefield before the arrival of winter, and they should work hard to consolidate this at the negotiating table.

Opposing senior US government officials insisted that neither side was ready for the talks, and that a truce would leave opportunities for Russia.

Some of Biden's advisers said it was too early to negotiate.

As Zelensky said, Ukrainian return to Hellson cannot be separated from the support of NATO and its allies. Once the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks resume, what role will the United States and NATO play in it?

Judging from the public statement, the United States said that Ukraine will decide the time and content of the peace talks on its own.

On June 5438+02, US Secretary of State Blinken met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba in Cambodia, saying that Ukraine would decide the relevant time and content of negotiations with Russia on its own.

But privately, the United States is pushing Ukraine to release the signal of peace talks.

Washington post local time 1 1.5 quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that Biden's government is privately encouraging the Ukrainian leadership to send a signal that it is open to negotiations with Russia, and to abandon those statements that openly refuse to participate in peace talks.

The report quoted American officials as saying, "For some of our partners,' Ukrainian fatigue' is a real situation."

It is worth noting that according to Russian media reports, on June 5438+04, the delegations of the United States and Russia held secret talks in Ankara, the capital of Turkey. The Russian representative is naryshkin, director of Russian Foreign Intelligence Agency, and the American representative is Burns, director of US Central Intelligence Agency.

Reuters pointed out that this meeting was the first face-to-face meeting between high-level officials of the United States and Russia since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

A White House official, who asked not to be named, said that the talks between Burns and Russian representatives would not involve a solution to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. "We informed Ukraine of his itinerary in advance, and we adhered to our basic principle: anything related to Ukraine cannot be done without Ukraine's participation."

Russian political scholar Bajiuk said that the United States privately pushed Ukraine to release the wind of negotiations, indicating that Washington lacks confidence in defeating Russia, especially Europe is worried about the deterioration of the situation. Their arsenals and financial reserves are almost exhausted, and the United States is also caught in the quagmire of energy and inflation crisis. In order to save face, it is proposed to let Ukraine negotiate with Russia.

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