What is the impact of successive "accidents" on the global grain market?

Grain has always been the top priority in the global market collection.

Especially this year is a special year. The ridiculously high global inflation, the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the frequent occurrence of extreme weather have repeatedly tested global food, and food prices have also risen.

For example, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict this year, because Russian-Ukrainian wheat exports occupy an important position in global wheat exports, the market is worried about the limited supply of wheat, so it is bullish on wheat.

Although in the middle of the year, the market's expectation of global economic recession became stronger and stronger, a large amount of capital was withdrawn, and food prices once fell, but this summer, the northern hemisphere suffered the worst high temperature and dry weather in history, which generally affected the grain output of countries in the northern hemisphere.

For example, France, as the largest corn producer in the European Union, is expected to see a sharp decline in corn production due to extreme drought. American corn was also weak due to drought, and the reduction in production once triggered a global market collection.

However, in addition to output, there is another important factor that affects the grain market, and that is transportation.

From the mode of transportation, there are three main modes of grain transportation: highway, railway and waterway. The first two are usually used for transportation from storage warehouses to terminal warehouses, and waterway transportation is an important channel for global grain exports.

Grain transportation accounts for more than 10% of the total dry bulk transportation by sea, second only to iron ore and coal.

At present, the global grain trade routes are mainly Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Ocean routes. Once these trade routes are blocked, they will become the blocking point of the global grain supply chain, thus affecting supply and demand and pushing up food prices.

Last year, for example, the Suez Canal, as the throat of global shipping, caused a heated discussion, which not only highlighted the fragility of global supply chain, but also indirectly affected global food prices.

This year, shipping companies are linked with "an accident".

In August this year, due to the continuous high temperature and dry weather, the water level of the Rhine River dropped to about 32 cm, and the cargo ship had to reduce the transportation volume and only carry 25% of the cargo.

As one of the busiest rivers in the world, the Rhine River is an important transportation route for bulk products such as grains, minerals, coal and oil, carrying 80% of the water goods in Germany.

After the water level of the Rhine River dropped, the traffic volume dropped sharply, pushing up the transportation cost.

After autumn, the rainfall in Europe increased. According to a recent report by Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao, the water level of the Rhine River has risen to a level close to the normal depth, and cargo ships have gradually resumed their load.

But for the same reason, the water level of the Mississippi River in the United States has dropped to a low level in a decade.

Not long ago, two other important sections of the Mississippi River were interrupted and more than 2,300 ships ran aground.

Although the waterway has been restored, there are still 4000 ships waiting to pass.

According to the data of the National Weather Service, the water level of the Mississippi River will remain at a low level and it will be difficult to recover in a short time.

The United States is the largest grain exporter in the world, and its grain export occupies an important position in the global grain market supply. The Mississippi River is the "artery" of agricultural products transportation in the United States. 92% of agricultural products exports in the United States and 78% of feed grains and soybeans exports in the world depend on the Mississippi River waterway.

At this time of year, barges on the Mississippi River channel transport agricultural products to the south and fertilizers to the north. At this time, the water level drops and the passage is blocked, which will inevitably affect the export of agricultural products and the transportation of chemical fertilizers, which undoubtedly aggravates the concern of the global grain market about the effective supply of grain again.

Affected by this, the cost of importing American corn from China is also rising, and it has risen to a high level of 3,400 yuan/ton.

However, to make matters worse, the drought has not only not eased, but even intensified. Experts predict that the water level of the Mississippi River may continue to decline.

The Mississippi River route is worrying, and the Black Sea port, another important route of global shipping, is also experiencing frequent problems.

Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Black Sea port was once closed, which aggravated the shortage of supply and demand in the global grain market. Finally, in July, the United Nations, Turkey, Russia and Ukraine reached a four-party agreement to resume grain transportation in the Black Sea port for four months.

The market generally believes that the conclusion of this agreement has played a very important role in alleviating the global food crisis.

However, with the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Black Sea Agreement is facing expiration, and it is reported that Russia may refuse to renew it.

Because Russia and Ukraine signed two agreements at that time, one was to ensure the safe passage of merchant ships in Odessa, Cherno, Moske and Yuzhny, and the other was to promote the export of Russian grain and fertilizer.

However, according to the Russian side, Ukraine's grain exports have resumed one after another, but in the past few months, the promise of the West to lift sanctions on Russian grain and fertilizer exports has not been fulfilled.

This makes the market worry once again that the Black Sea port agreement may regenerate variables, which will once again trigger the turmoil in the global grain market.

From this point of view, the problem of global grain output is not the most worrying, because although some major grain-producing countries are facing production cuts, some countries have ushered in bumper harvests. For example, Russia has a bumper harvest this year, which is expected to reach 65.438+0.2 billion tons.

However, due to transportation restrictions, it is impossible to deliver the goods smoothly.

It can be seen that the current global food crisis lies not in the shortage of food production and supply, but in the uneven distribution, which is the biggest crisis in the current global food market.